ABUL RIZVI. Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton have lost control of our borders.

Chaos in our visa system and extraordinary border control failures are being exploited by people smugglers to deliver record numbers of non-genuine asylum seekers arriving by air.  The Coalition pretends we only have sea borders and can ignore our air borders. Yet Australia is sleep-walking into replicating the experience of Europe and the USA with an ever increasing underclass of failed asylum seekers. Our borders have never been so out of control.

The problems with our visa system start with enormous visa application backlogs and ballooning processing times (see Table 1 for examples).

Table 1: Applications on Hand Versus Places

Visa Category On Hand at end June 2018 Places in 2017-18
Partners 80,936 39,799
Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme 22,500 6,221
Employer Sponsored Migration 53,094 35,528
Business Innovation 20,610 7,260

Source: Home Affairs Migration Program Report

While Peter Dutton tried to suggest this was the result of ‘greater scrutiny’, the fact is the backlogs are forcing people to by-pass the off-shore visas they really want and use visitor visas to enter Australia and then apply for the visa they really wanted (see Table 2). This meant that over 24 percent of net migration in 2017-18 was due to people arriving on visitor visas and changing status – an astonishing level. This is highly likely to increase in 2018-19 and 2019-20.

Table 2: People arriving on visitor visas contributing to net overseas migration (NOM) arrivals

Year 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Visitor Arrivals Contributing to NOM 44,440 50,240 60,550 71,870 (Est) 78,020 (Est)

Source: ABS Cat: 3412

The massive level of people arriving on visitor visas and then applying for a different visa after arrival is contributing to record increases in the backlog of people in Australia on bridging visas (see Table 3). These are visas that the Department of Home Affairs uses when it cannot process onshore visa applications quickly enough.

Table 3: Stock of People on Bridging Visas as at end March 

Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
BV Holders 107,191 111,178 136,904 153,809 194,875

Source: Temporary Entrants in Australia Pivot Table – Department of Home Affairs

The bridging visa backlog is creating a honeypot attracting people smugglers who abuse our onshore protection visa system. In 2017-18 we had a record number of onshore asylum seeker applications, exceeding that of any year under the Rudd/Gillard Governments (see Table 4). And while Home Affairs processed around 15,000 asylum seeker cases at the primary stage in 2017-18, that meant the primary stage backlog grew by around 13,000.

 

Table 4: Onshore Protection Visa Applications (ie Asylum Seekers)

Year 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Total 8,587 9,554 18,290 27,931
Malaysia 1,401 3,549 8,579 9,319
China 1,299 1,099 2,269 9,315
India 674 582 1,133 1,529

Source: Various onshore humanitarian program reports – Department of Home Affairs

The record number of asylum seekers and bridging visa holders are flowing onto a rapidly growing backlog at the AAT. Despite efforts to increase AAT decisions, the backlog continues to rise (see Table 5).

Table 5: Stock of Active Cases at AAT Migration and Refugee Division

Year End July 2016 End June 2017 End June 2018 End Mar 2019
Cases 17,480 24,462 44,436 56,293

Source: AAT Website

The active asylum seeker caseload at AAT is also growing rapidly and at end March 2019 stood at 18,665. Flow through to the AAT from the 2017-18 surge in asylum seekers at the primary stage may not start to show up in the AAT numbers for another 6-9 months. While the AAT refusal rate for the current cohort of asylum seekers is 92 percent, we do not know what portion of the failed asylum seekers are leaving Australia or just melting into the community.

Home Affairs does not publicly disclose the size of the total asylum seeker backlog at primary stage or the total number of asylum seekers who have been refused but remain in Australia mostly as overstayers. The total number of asylum seekers at primary stage, at the AAT and the number who have become overstayers over the past five years is unlikely to be less than 50,000 and most likely much larger and growing rapidly.

The visa system, and by implication our borders, have never been so out of control. It will take many years and many hundreds of millions of dollars (possibly billions) to get back to an even keel.

But the 2019 Budget Papers reveal funding for both visa and citizenship processing as well as for border security to be in steep decline. Funding for border security is to decline by 30.3 percent over the forward estimates while funding for visa and citizenship processing is to decline by 16.2 percent.

The Government clearly has no plans to deal with the chaos in our visa system and appears happy to quietly pass the problem onto an in-coming government.

To our shame, it now seems highly likely Australia will follow the European and US path of a growing permanent underclass of failed asylum seekers who will live from hand to mouth trying to obtain work illegally wherever possible.

Surely our politicians should be talking about this?

Abul Rizvi was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including in particular the reshaping of Australia’s intake to focus on skilled migration. He is currently doing a PhD on Australia’s immigration policies.

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3 Responses to ABUL RIZVI. Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton have lost control of our borders.

  1. Anthony Pun says:

    Abul Rizvi should be thanked for showing us some immigration data not easily available in the net. This article is consistent with his previous article which concluded that Australia is creating an underclass of immigrants, who are basically “unlawful” and easily exploited by unscrupulous employers. This underclass is very similar to those “ethnic underclass” frequently mentioned by the “ethnic community leaders” of the 1990s and a source of creation of “ethnic ghettos” and these statements were fondly made by the late Bill Jegarow, the founding Chair of ECC NSW and FECCA.
    In his second article, Rizvi attributes the cause of backlog to loss of control of our borders (visa systems) by PM Morrison and Dutton; and with Dutton claiming that the backlog is due to greater scrutiny.
    The presentation of the number of cases using back door techniques to stay after arriving in Australia, featured well with people from Malaysia, China and India (all Asians). In the absence of other nationalities, one could easily perceive that there is another explanation for “greater scrutiny”, ie. the criteria for a class of visa could have a higher indirect discriminatory content and the English proficiency criteria is a good example.
    Asylum seekers also qualify for the “greater scrutiny” and public debate led by political leaders with an alt right agenda, has already placed enough fear in ordinary Australians about the suitability of these people to settle in Australia.
    Rizvi’s conclusion is spot on however, it did leave out an important highlight, that “greater scrutiny” means higher indirect discrimination. Dutton has not loss control of the borders but has made it harder to these people to get regularised. Cynically, we need some cheap labour and let them suffer a few more years before we allow them to stay! This reminds me of the Chinese student days (1990s) when the Hawke government finally gave them residence after having been in limbo for several years.
    Another discriminatory action by the present government regarding the introduction of the English test at University level, for Citizenship applications has resulted over 230,000 Australian citizenship applications held in limbo and wait time exceed two years. This action has created a “second class” citizenship category for these applicants. This statement was made by me during a SBS TV interview together with GetUp last year.
    Finally, when a person is locked in by immigration regulations, he/she has a right to seek lawful alternatives to overcome those “chains”. The response by the applicant should not be consider crafty or improper simply because they
    are reacting to a set of rules. Do not cure the symptoms, go and fix the primary cause.

  2. Jim Oakley says:

    It looks like we need a rule that there can be no conversions from the subclass 600 visitor visa to any other visa, ie. holders of this visa must leave the country by the time their visa expires. If asylum seekers are still granted bridging visas, this means that net overseas migration will be reduced by (78,020 – 27,931) = 50,089 per annum.

    From looking at the engineering labour market, I have come to the conclusion that the skilled migration program is corrupt – ie. the non-employer component is mainly used as a population booster program. This article highlights that there are serious problems elsewhere in the immigration program. What a debacle.

    • Abul Rizvi says:

      What is known as an 8503 ‘No Further Stay’ condition can be used but it does not prevent lodgement of an asylum application. The issue has to be addresses at an earlier point in the process and with a wider range of tools.

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