Prime Minister Morrison’s announcements of a potential move of our embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and less newsworthy but nonetheless significant, of a review of our support for the Iran Nuclear Deal, threaten seriously to prejudice the Australian national interest.
The status of Jerusalem has been central to the Arab Israeli dispute for a century and more. Israel has been denied international recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state particularly as this would presuppose the outcome of a negotiation between Israelis and Palestinians of a comprehensive two state solution to the dispute.
Successive American administrations had supported this policy on a bipartisan basis .-as have all our friends in NATO, with whom we have been associated both in Iraq and Afghanistan .
President Trump’s decision was a radical shift in the United States’ historical position on Jerusalem. The decision predictably drew strong criticism from Islamic states and the nonaligned world. More tellingly, it prompted adverse reactions from European states historically well versed in the intricacies of the Arab Israeli dispute.
Following the American announcement, former Foreign Minister Julie Bishop did not deviate from existing Australian policy, noting that matters relating to Jerusalem were “ subject to final status negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority “ and that Australia would continue its diplomatic representation to Israel from Tel Aviv and its representation to the Palestinian Authority from Ramallah in the West Bank.
So why change now? The stated rationale was that we were going to vote “No”, presumably along with President Trump, Guatemala and a Micronesian state or two, on a UN vote which would support the Palestinian Authority as the Chair of the developing countries’ caucus group, the Group of 77. This is arrant nonsense. We have voted “No” on a plethora of Middle Eastern questions before without shifting our embassy to Jerusalem.
As all our newpapers have made clear , the real answer is that the announcement was a telling example of the aphorism of the late Speaker of the US House of Representatives , Tip O’Neill that “all politics is local”.
But at what cost ?
First , the Arab Israeli question is not central to our foreign policy focus and international opinion is firmly against the position we envisage .It is bound to bring us into global disrespect. To some that may not matter, but one would hope that to those in government our international reputation would count.
It will prompt a more specific reaction from the Arab world . It is too soon to know what form that reaction will take, but there will be a reaction.
In our own region, both Pakistan and Bangladesh are Islamic states and will feel forced to take positions.
But most important for us will the reaction in Malaysia and Indonesia both because our bilateral dealings will be affected and because their views impact on regional attitudes towards us. Following the Trump decision there were widespread and lengthy demonstrations in both these countries and it would be surprising if our decision did not resonate as badly.
The timing is a particularly unfortunate in relation to Indonesia. .
Just for a start, the Foreign Minister of the Palestinian Authority is currently on five day visit to Jakarta.
Israel has denied both the current Indonesian Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi and her predecessor, Marty Natalagawa, entry to Ramallah unless they also visited Jerusalem. They did not do this.
Perhaps most significant Indonesia is gearing up for next year’s presidential and parliamentary elections. Islamic issues already loom large in electoral rhetoric. It would be matter of extreme regret if the success of Prime Minister Morrison’s early visit to Jakarta were to be upended by our position on Jerusalem.
President Widodo is a friend of Australia and has pushed a free trade deal with us , which could now be jeopardized .We cooperate on counter terrorism and have a serious dialogue in regional security which assumes added importance with the rise of China.
Since the blasphemy conviction of the former Governor of Jakarta, Ahok, Widodo has been vulnerable to charges that he is insufficiently sensitive to Islamic aspirations. He may be forced into taking positions regarding Australia he would prefer to avoid
The Iran issue will receive less attention but that decision too was a serious mistake. We are buying into it to please President Trump and the Israelis. While imperfect, the Nuclear deal was regarded by President Obama, our main NATO allies and Japan as holding the best hope for a non nuclear Iran .While not party to the deal, we supported it. We have always take nuclear nonproliferation seriously. It is a pity that we seem no longer to do so.
Mr Morrison still has time to wind back on policies which, put simply, are bad for Australia. Let us hope he takes the national interest seriously enough to do so.
John McCarthy has served as Australian Ambassador to Vietnam, Mexico, Thailand, USA, Indonesia, Japan and High Commissioner to India.