Writer
Bob McMullan
Bob McMullan was State Secretary of the Labor Party and National Secretary as well as a Senator, MP and Cabinet Minister. He is now a Visiting fellow at the Australian Studies Institute at ANU.
-
Probability websites are picking Labor to win
I am much too scarred by the 2019 experience to make an election prediction in 2022. However, as I remain fascinated by the prospects and challenges in the remainder of the election campaign, I have studied the two websites I am aware of which are trying to assess the probabilities of various election outcomes based Continue reading »
-
What will happen in the Senate election?
The outcome of the Senate election is not as important as the outcome of the House of Reps election, but it does matter. Continue reading »
-
The key lessons from the South Australian election
The first federal election lesson I would draw from the recent South Australian election is: “the polls got it right”. This combined with the significant differential in the performance of female candidates in the election could have a profound impact on the forthcoming federal election. Continue reading »
-
Green preferences may decide seats for Independent candidates
Results from the 2019 federal election and the Willoughby by-election suggest that green preferences are likely to decide whether Independent candidates can win previously safe coalition seats. Continue reading »
-
Macron more likely to be reelected than Morrison
Given their recent history, it is ironic that Macron and Morrison will come up for election at very close to the same time. Continue reading »
-
It’s a tough road, but minor players look like having a major role in 2022 poll
Independents are running strong at this year’s federal election, putting a hung parliament into play. The challenges they face for a successful candidacy remain high, however. Continue reading »
-
A battle within the battle for Canberra: can ACT banish Liberals from Senate?
Could Liberal senator Zed Seselja be put to the sword by Canberrans at the 2022 election? A mix of scenarios emphasises the possibility. Continue reading »
-
The small talk about Albanese and small targets is wrong
The notion that the federal Labor leader is running a small-target strategy ahead of next year’s election flies in the face of the facts. Continue reading »
-
Dodging the debt trap: a better way to compete with China in our region
Australia could use a small fraction of the money committed to nuclear-powered submarines to co-operate with our friends in a more cost-effective and quicker way to check China’s regional influence. Continue reading »
-
The biggest issue for the 2022 federal election is the Uluru Statement from the Heart
There are many issues in contention between the major parties at the next federal election. The biggest question to be determined by that election is the nature of our response to the Uluru Statement from the Heart. Continue reading »
-
German Social Democrats’ success would have a ripple effect in EU and beyond
On current trends the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) is likely to lead a coalition government after the federal elections on September 26. Continue reading »
-
Will Clive Palmer’s money get Craig Kelly reelected?
With Craig Kelly joining the United Australia Party (UAP), what impact will he and Clive Palmer have on the next federal election? Continue reading »
-
Governing is hard, just get on with it
In the face of declining trust in our federal government we need a government which will get on with the hard business of governing. Continue reading »
-
Possibilities for the next federal election
Now that the redistributions in Victoria and WA are completed we can begin to assess the possibilities for the next federal election. Imperfect as it is polling offers some interesting insights. Continue reading »
-
Independent candidates are on the rise – and that may not be all bad
The reinstatement of Barnaby Joyce combined with demographic changes raises the possibility that more independents will be elected at the next federal election. A run-down of the most likely electorates. Continue reading »
-
It is not all doom and gloom for Labor votors
The published polling data does not support the prevailing orthodoxy that the ALP is trailing, failing to catch up and headed to inevitable defeat. Continue reading »
-
Fairfax’s polling bias
Progressives should not necessarily be concerned about the Crosby Textor connection of the new SMH and Age pollster. The key question is how the polls are reported. Continue reading »
-
WA election: an untold story
The main story about the WA election is the scale of the Labor victory. However, there is an untold story: the total failure of the “don’t give Labor total control message”. Continue reading »
-
SEAN INNIS and BOB MCMULLAN. Restarting Australian democracy Part Two
The performance of National Cabinet has been the administrative success story of the pandemic. Cooperative and decisive action at the top of our federation has been crucial to successful management of the virus. It is clear that National Cabinet should continue until current restrictions have been removed. But what then? Continue reading »
-
SEAN INNIS and BOB MCMULLAN. Restarting Australian democracy Part One
For many Australians, the relative decisiveness and efficiency of government decision-making over the past few months has been a welcome change. Continue reading »
-
BOB MCMULLAN. Lessons for Labour from Labor
The crushing defeat of the British Labour Party was much worse than that suffered by the Australian Labour Party earlier in the year. However, there were some disturbing similarities and some common lessons to be learnt. The ALP is fortunate to have had the Emerson/Weatherill Review. The British Labour Party needs to do something similar. Continue reading »
