Writer
Cavan Hogue
Cavan Hogue is a former diplomat who has worked in Asia, Europe and the Americas as well as at the UN. He was Australian Ambassador to USSR and Russia, dually accredited to Ukraine. He also worked at ANU and Macquarie universities.
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Cyber hacks, media hacks and political hacks.
Greatly increased defence spending plus proposed cyber capability tie us more to the USA and clearly will be seen by China as unfriendly. Can we rely on a dysfunctional USA and do we really understand Chinese motives and the level of threat from it? Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. How should Morrison respond to Trump’s invitation?
President Trump wants to invite Australia to attend the forthcoming G7 meeting as a guest along with Russia, Japan, South Korea and India. Mr Morrison has said he will consider a reply. Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Entangling Alliances?
Should Australia take more notice of Charles de Gaulle than Donald Trump? What is the value of an alliance? Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Science, not politics, must drive an independent and comprehensive Coronavirus inquiry
The whole question of lessons to be learned to help prepare for future pandemics is caught up in international politics and it will be hard for science to defeat politics. We need to examine who handled it well and who not, but this will point the finger at some countries which prefer to do the Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE: Double standards in dealing with China and USA
Why do our government and media apply different standards and rules to China and the USA? We are usually told it is because we share values with the US but not with China. Also, China is aggressive and the US is a democracy which respects universal human rights and the rules based international order. Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Kishore Mahbubani on China and the US
In a most interesting article in The Economist, Kishore Mahbubani argues that the post-COVIC-19 world will be characterized by an accelerated shift in power from the West to East Asia. Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. What will a post-COVID-19 world mean for Australia?
There is much speculation about what the post-COVID-19 world will look like but we do not have answers and can only ask questions at this stage. Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. More blessed to give than to receive? Repost from 18.12 2017
Provoking China to score cheap political points domestically does not advance Australian interests. While most Australians would prefer the US domestic political model to the Chinese, we are not going to change the Chinese system and so must learn to live with it. Complaints about Chinese attempts to influence Australian attitudes are naive. Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE – The Trumpet shall sound, And we shall be razed!
Australia’s response to US Trumpeting in Iraq has been muted and said nothing about whether we agree in principle that it is acceptable to assassinate foreign nationals in other countries. Russia in Britain? Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Hong Kong – Students and police
The current situation is Hong Kong is depressing as both police and protesters blame the other and both engage in violence. There is no sign of reconciliation and the future looks bleak whatever happens. Recession is serious. This report is from a long time resident of Hong Kong who works in universities but prefers not Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE: Why is Mr Dutton afraid of Australian children?
The Australian women and children facing danger in Syria are not being brought home because it can’t be done or because they would be a threat to Australia but because of cheap domestic politics. As H.L. Mencken observed: “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. What is new about drones?
The attack on Saudi oil wells has given rise to a debate about the effectiveness of drones in warfare. Some have argued that this heralds a whole new world in warfare while others see it as just another example of the age old leap frogging between new attack weapons and the development of new defence Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Where is Hong Kong going?
Current protests, including violence, present difficult decisions for the PRC and for Xi Jin Ping. The Hong Kong Government does not seem to be able to control things so what will Beijing do? No option provides a simple solution. Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Canada, Australia and the USA
Canada tries to differentiate itself from the USA but because of its proximity and similarities this is not easy. Australia has the opposite problem: we try to find similarities. Canada’s geography makes it easier for it to defy requests to get involved in US wars but Australia has the opposite problem. We have to shout Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Business as Usual in the World.
Australia’s vote in the UN on the Diego Garcia issue suggests there will be no change in our Government’s approach to foreign policy. Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. President or Prime Minister?
The current political cult of personality obscures the fact that Australian prime ministers are not American presidents. The Prime Minister told voters that they had a clear choice between him and Bill Shorten. No they don’t Scomo! They have a choice between two parties and cabinets that take decisions. Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. The panda versus the grizzly bear.
Our actions and public statements on Huawei and other Chinese investments clearly identify China as a potential threat which logically makes it an enemy. We do not apply the same standards to other countries which have the same technical capability. The US has been pressuring other countries to follow its lead in banning Huawei. How Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Ukraine, clowns and comedians.
It looks very much like Ukraine will elect a TV comedian with no political experience as president. Since Australia is ruled by clowns at the moment we are hardly in a position to criticise! Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. What does Kim Jong Un really want?
There has been much speculation about what Kim wants and what happened at the summit. When dealing with characters like Trump and Bolton anything is possible but Kim is much more focussed and any consideration of current events should never lose sight of the fundamentals that underlie anything Kim does. He wants to stay in Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Comment on Hugh White’s response to Paul Dibb on ANZUS and Taiwan.
Hugh White has made an effective rebuttal of Paul Dibb’s claim that we should join the US if China takes military action against Taiwan. It is important to stress that ANZUS does not require us to join with the USA in defending Taiwan. Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Brazil – somebody down there loves Donald.
The newly elected Brazilian President, Jair Bolsonaro, is a right wing, socially conservative former army officer who is a fan of Donald Trump and is following many of his foreign policy adventures like pulling out of the Paris Climate accords and moving his embassy to Jerusalem. John Bolton is anxious to forge close military ties Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Democracy in Venezuela?
Much of the current situation arises from internal conflicts and policies but US policy has nothing to do with democracy and everything to do with US commercial, ideological and strategic interests. Foreign support for Maduro or Guaidó is based on predictable ideological and national interest lines. Domestically the military supports Maduro against widespread unrest and Continue reading »
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CAVAN and ALEX HOGUE. Cyber legislation – the oldest trick in the book.
The proposed legislation on cyber powers raises some questions that need to be answered. The debate has been rhetorical and has not addressed the technical or legal aspects of the legislation in any detail. Has the implementation been thought through by all concerned? We don’t have all the answers but wonder if the Government does Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Storms in the Sea of Azov.
The recent clash between Russia and Ukraine is about access to the Sea of Azov especially arising from the Russian bridge connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland. Russian and Ukrainian claims and explanations are entirely predictable as is NATO’s condemnation of Russia. The Russians claim that it is all the fault of Ukraine for illegally Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Democracy and the Future.
Recent polls have reported that roughly half of young Australians do not think democracy is the best form of government. There have been other expressions of concern in the media about the state of democracy in Australia and indeed the world. This reflects a widespread dissatisfaction with Australian politics and politicians. Democracy is a faith Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Where the bloody Hell are You?
Our current Prime Minister loves P R slogans and seems to believe that they are a satisfactory alternative to an understanding of a world that does not eat meat pies. To his credit, however, he has publicly criticised US trade policy which is at least standing up for Australian interests as he boasts he does. Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Do we really need an American Ambassador? Or will Rupert Murdoch do?
Do we really need an American ambassador? Ambassadors are paid to represent their own country, not ours, so what’s in it for us? Do we really need an imperial legate to keep us in line when we never get out of line? Our media relies on American sources for its news and Rupert Murdoch makes Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. The Gospel according to St Donald.
It is hard to know whether to laugh or cry at Trump’s speech to the UNGA which saw him laughed at. He was clearly shocked that the unwashed masses didn’t understand that patriotism was superior to globalism whatever Dr Johnson might say about patriotism. And how could they fail to appreciate the achievements of the Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Putin, Trump. Morals and Australia
Trump has shown little political savvy and even less powers of analysis. However, it is hard to see the USA as having the moral high ground to justify the hysterical moral outrage generated by Trump’s incompetence when it has done exactly the same thing many times in many places. Syria is a case of double Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Digger mates in Singapore?
We have two countries and individuals with a well established record of breaking treaties, agreements and promises who tell us they have established a relationship of trust. How reassuring! At least for the time being they have stopped threatening and that is a good thing but no clear definition emerged of exactly what is meant Continue reading »
