Writer
Cavan Hogue
Cavan Hogue is a former diplomat who has worked in Asia, Europe and the Americas as well as at the UN. He was Australian Ambassador to USSR and Russia, dually accredited to Ukraine. He also worked at ANU and Macquarie universities.
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Korea: the Hermit Kingdom rises again?
The peace negotiations on the Korean Peninsula remain fragile and neither the USA or the DPRK trusts the other. Neither side has been specific about what they will accept and the question remains what it has always been. What does Kim want in return for what he is willing to give and what is Trump Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Malaysia’s first new government in six decades revels in a shocking victor.
The surprising Malaysian election results show yet again that we shouldn’t put faith in polls and pundits. Despite serious gerrymandering and other bits of nastiness the Barisan Nasional lost the election. The return of Dr Mahathir raises questions about the future. He has promised to hand over to Anwar Ibrahim but hasn’t said when. Najib looks Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. What rules based order?
Australia proclaims the importance of a rules based international order but it is not at all clear what those rules are, let alone who observes them and who doesn’t. Even where there is agreement on what the rule is countries interpret it to suit their interests. There are no countries in a position to cast Continue reading »
-
Morals, slogans and PR hype
Australian politicians and media have been beating their hairy chests accusing and warning China and Russia over their failings. One is reminded of the famous thundering headline in The Launceston Examiner ‘We warn the Tzar of Russia’ . The question is what is the motive in all of this? Do they really hope to influence Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Russia and Australia: The Empire strikes back?
Russia is the prime suspect in the poisoning but cannot be convicted on the basis of the circumstantial evidence before we get the report of the independent commission. But this article is concerned about what this exercise tells us about Australian priorities. We have joined 28 NATO countries to put sanctions on Russia and ignored Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. What Australian interests are involved in the Skripal poisoning?
By signing up to sanctions against Russia along with 22 European and North American countries Australia has made it very clear to the 100 countries that did not sign up where we think we belong. We seem to be telling our Asian neighbours that Dr Mahathir was right to say that Australia is a European Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Reflections on the ASEAN-Australian Summit.
The ASEAN-Australian summit provided an opportunity for Australia to get close to countries and leaders important to us and to make a public statement to that effect. The media coverage in Australia tended to focus on human rights in Cambodia and Myanmar which was not what ASEAN was here to discuss. However, Prime Minister Najib Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Report from the Quotidie Praeco Romanum on the visit of the vassal chieftain Flexus Taurus to the Imperial Capital.
Emperor Trumpus Augustus graciously received in audience today a barbarian chieftain named Flexus Taurus representing the vassal province of Terra Australis. Flexus Taurus assured the Emperor that Rome had no more loyal vassal than Terra Australis whose inhabitants were devoted to all aspects of Roman civilisation. Continue reading »
-
The Philippine War and the Saviour syndrome
The American war against the Philippine Republic which began in 1898 and its subsequent colonisation of the Philippines teaches us many things about perennial American beliefs and actions. The concept that the US is saving somebody from something is a constant in American foreign policy. Some even believe they saved Europe from Hitler! We need Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. White man’a media- A REPOST from May 29 2017
That the Australian media gives us saturation coverage of Europe but much less on Asia is obvious but the question is why? Have they done market research which shows this is what the public wants or does it stem from their own beliefs and prejudices? Is this really what most Australians want? Possibly it may Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. The ambassadorial minnow and the whale.
Australian angst about the failure of the US to send an ambassador to Australia reflects the nature of our relationship. Tim Fischer is right to see it as an insult but it should not surprise us. Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Let those who are without sin cast the first stone. A REPOST
The USA is a complex place with its vices, virtues and differences. Despite its noble ideals and democratic institutions, it has a long history of aggression and of overthrowing democracies in the pursuit of American commercial or strategic interests. It does not have the moral high ground and its lectures to other countries can be Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. More blessed to give than to receive?
Provoking China to score cheap political points domestically does not advance Australian interests. While most Australians would prefer the US domestic political model to the Chinese, we are not going to change the Chinese system and so must learn to live with it. Complaints about Chinese attempts to influence Australian attitudes are naive. All countries, Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. The White Paper – a curate’s egg?
There is much to be commended in the Government’s White Paper but there are some assumptions which need to be questioned. The focus on Asia is welcome and most of the analysis of our changing world is good, in particular the recognition that the balance between China and the USA has been changing. The Prime Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Mindanao and terrorism.
The situation in Mindanao is complicated by historical, ethnic, religious, criminal and social factors that are not easily unravelled. The introduction of Saudi Wahabism and foreign fighters complicates the mix even further. Separatism is not new but the arrival of foreign fighters which led to the taking of Marawi is a new factor. The Philippine Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Our news media need less hysteria and more history
Australian reporting on international affairs leaves much to be desired as recent comments on the Philippines and Russia show. While the situation in Mindanao must be taken seriously, it is important to understand that only 20% of the inhabitants are Moslems and that most of the island is inhabited by Christian migrants. This doesn’t seem Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Sanctions and virtue.
Sanctions are a form of force but seem to be the only answer Western countries can come up with. There is no evidence that they are effective, probably because it is not the decision-makers who suffer from them. Pressure on China to do more does not take account of Chinese interests. China wants a buffer Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Crisis In Korea: can the irresistible force and the immovable object co-exist?
The launch of an ICBM by the DPRK may yet bring a positive result if it gets China, Russia and the USA all working together to find a solution involving carrot and stick. Any solution will need to make the DPRK feel secure form foreign attack and its neighbours secure from DPRK attack which means Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. We always want an outside protector
The recent Lowy poll that showed a decrease in support for Trump but not for the alliance should not come as a surprise. It is consistent with Australia’s long standing desire for a protector. We should not be naïve about China but we do tend to look at the USA through rose-coloured glasses. Our future Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Our white man’s media.
For our media, the UK and the US are more or less ‘down town’. Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Trump and the Wahhabis
President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia does not sit well with a demand to fight the Wahhabi inspired terrorists but support for a dictatorship that suits American commercial and strategic interests is a long standing US practice. We may wonder whether getting involved in religious disputes is a good idea. Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Why do we hate President Assad of Syria?
The US opposes Assad because he is not their son of a bitch and so supports a motley bag of groups with little in common who are probably no better than Assad. The elimination of ISIS is certainly desirable but it will not solve the mess that is the Middle East. Australia trots along behind Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Ukraine – a pox on both your houses?
A solution to the fighting in Ukraine will require agreement and cooperation by three parties without undue interference from outsiders. The three parties are the Russian Government, the Ukrainian Government and the Eastern Ukrainian rebels. The outsiders are NATO and the USA. Australia is not a player. Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Australia did say no to the US on Vietnam in 1954.
“Australia’s destiny was not so completely wrapped up with the United States as to support them in action which Australia regarded as wrong”. (R.G.Casey) Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Should we Jump with Trump on Russia?
Australia has followed the hardline advocates in the US in attributing evil actions now and in the future to Russia and Putin in particular. How accurate is this view? One of the few sensible things Trump is doing is advocating better relations with Russia which can only contribute to a reduction in international tension – Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. New series: We can say ‘no’ to the Americans?
Of all American allies Australia is the most subservient. A problem is that we have harped on the loyal little ally theme to the Americans so much that they take us for granted but we have not always toed the line. Admittedly, Gough Whitlams’ relative independence caused ructions in Washington but there were special circumstances. Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Has the alliance got us into more trouble than it has got us out of? Quo vadis series.
Quo vadis – Australian foreign policy and ANZUS. Summary. Trump does give us an opportunity to do things we should have done long ago. Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. US election.
It looks like a Trump victory with a Republican Congress, albeit one which contains Republicans who don’t like Trump. But it is far too early to speculate sensibly on what President Trump will actually do. There are more questions than answers. The problem is that we really don’t know what Trump will do and Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Duterte – China and the US.
Attitudes to the USA have varied in the Philippines since they first came in contact in 1898 when the Americans invaded the Philippines and spent 1898 to 1904 in a brutal colonial war against the Philippine Republic under President Emilio Aguinaldo. Needless to say, Americans were widely hated for depriving the Filipinos of their freedom Continue reading »
-
CAVAN HOGUE. Handing over our Defence to a foreign country.
The Government has refused to allow a Chinese firm to invest in electricity because it is seen as a threat to our security but it has no difficulty in handing over our defence to a foreign country. Australian defence forces are so integrated with the US that it is hard to see how we can Continue reading »
