Writer
Cavan Hogue
Cavan Hogue is a former diplomat who has worked in Asia, Europe and the Americas as well as at the UN. He was Australian Ambassador to USSR and Russia, dually accredited to Ukraine. He also worked at ANU and Macquarie universities.
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CAVAN HOGUE. Australian Foreign Policy. (Repost from Policy Series)
Summary. Australian Foreign Policy is dominated by fear, defence issues, the American Alliance and the search for votes in marginal electorates. We talk about the importance of Asia but instinctively cleave to Europe and North America who are said to share our values but don’t always do so. We need to look beyond the next Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. NATO searches for role – with the help of Julie Bishop!
NATO was created to counter the Soviet Union but when the Soviet Union disappeared NATO did not follow suit so new enemies were required. Afghanistan was promoted by the USA because it harboured terrorists who attacked the USA. When the Taliban fought the Soviet Union the US provided weapons and support but the US now Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Brexit and Russia.
There has been some speculation about how Brexit will affect Russia. Probably not a lot politically but we can only speculate about the economic effects. No doubt the European Community will spend the next few years contemplating its navel and so be less focused on relations with Russia. The Europeans will be even less interested Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Australia and its relationships with US and China.
According to the Sydney Morning Herald, the US Studies Centre at Sydney University has produced a study which showed that 8 out of 10 Australians were only mildly concerned about the fact that, as they saw it, China already dominated Asia and they did not think China would go to war with the USA. They Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Saudi Arabia involvement in 9/11 attack!
The United States has long supported one of the most repressive regimes in the world. It invaded Iraq where women were able to do anything men could (which wasn’t much admittedly) but not Saudi Arabia where women are kept in subjection. It also ignored the fact that Saudi Arabia is home of the Wahabi brand Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Malcolm Turnbull, COAG and media confusion.
Turnbull knew what he was doing. The media has turned on Malcolm Turnbull who is accused of ignorance. Media views seem to change even more often than political promises. However,surely the PM knew why he called the meeting with the states. He knew they would reject it which is what he wanted them to do. Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. The Defence White Paper and the China threat.
In a paper distributed by the ANU East Asia Forum, Professor Hugh White has pointed out that the Defence White Paper makes two invalid assumptions: the post-Cold War US-led international order will be maintained and that it must be. He is right on both counts and I will not repeat his views here except Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Our Eurocentric media.
In January 2015, 12 people were killed in a terrorist attack on Charlie Hebdo in Paris. The Australian media went into overdrive and gave saturation coverage for some days. In January 2016, 32 people were killed and 66 wounded in a terrorist attack in the northern Cameroun town of Bodo. There was no significant coverage Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Mr Turnbull goes to Washington.
Despite one welcome outburst of independence by refusing a request for more troops on the ground in the Middle East and a generally less sycophantic approach than most of his predecessors,the Prime Minister’s visit to Washington had all the usual hallmarks of a client presenting tribute to the Emperor. The fact that Australian and American Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Shia vs Sunni in Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shia cleric who criticised its policies has exacerbated the split between Shia and Sunni Nations. Politics and religion have come together in a way that will be familiar to anyone who knows Northern Ireland. Sunni Saudi Arabia is the home of the deviant puritanical Wahabi sect which is rejected by Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Turkey shoots down Russian aircraft.
Russia supports the (Shia) Assad regime backed by Iran and others while Turkey supports the Sunni backed bySaudi Arabia, the USA and others. The Turks claim the Shia are terrorists while Russia supports them as allies of the Shia, (i.e. Assad) who support Russian strategic interests.. This is an oversimplified picture but it is relevant Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. The Paris attacks.
The Paris attacks are yet another piece of savagery by young alienated Muslims but the question we need to ask is what is the real cause? Should we be searching the Koran or should we be looking at what motivates young idealists to die for a cause and why are these ones doing it? We Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Russian airliner and ISIS.
The almost gleeful attacks by columnists and cartoonists on Vladimir Putin when the Russian plane went down were in very bad taste. The difference between this and MH17 is clear. MH17 was shot down by accident in Ukrainian territory probably by rebels who thought they were shooting down a warplane from Kiev. It was not Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. MH17
The Dutch led report doesn’t really tell us anything much we couldn’t already work out but it does highlight some valid points. That the missile was Russian is hardly news but the report does give us the make, However, while theoretically this might help trace who bought it, missiles have moved around so much that Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Russia in Syria and Australian implications.
What are Australia’s objectives in the Middle East imbroglio? The simple answer is that it is about the American Alliance. We see ourselves as part of a global alliance led by the USA and generally supported by European powers: countries that “share our values”. We are there because they are. Therefore the fact that our Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Russian and Chinese naval exercises.
From August 20-28 Russia and China will conduct a large scale naval exercise in the Russian Far East and the Sea of Japan. Russia will send 20 ships and China seven plus11 aircraft. They will practice air defence and anti-submarine drills as well as a beach landing. Both countries are publicly beating up their defence Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. When elephants fight, kangaroos can be trampled.
Current Affairs The growing tension in the South China Sea poses a number of problems for Australia. We want to ensure that our access through these important waterway and air routes are not impeded but we want to do so without appearing to take sides in a confrontation between China and the USA. We also Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Australian Foreign Policy
Fairness, Opportunity and Security Policy series edited by Michael Keating and John Menadue Summary. Australian Foreign Policy is dominated by fear, defence issues, the American Alliance and the search for votes in marginal electorates. We talk about the importance of Asia but instinctively cleave to Europe and North America who are said to share our Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Australia will not be safer.
Australia’s upping the ante in Iraq is a recipe for disaster. It is hard to see anything positive coming out of it. Mr. Abbott said the request came from the Iraqi Government and the USA. As in the past, the request from the USA was almost certainly what it is all about plus the domestic Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Petroshenko visit.
President Petroshenko should be received courteously and his visit should be used to seek further trade with Ukraine. There is no reason to avoid cordial relations with Ukraine but our Government is going a lot further than that. Ukraine is a distant European country where we have limited interests. The Prime Minister appears to be Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Russia and the G20
Contrary to some media reports the G20 did not mention Russia in any of its documents and criticism came only from the West. Nothing happened which is likely to change Russian attitudes or actions. The Russia bashing by Australian politicians and media is not likely to worry Russia and the criticism by Western nations is Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. The new Vietnam.
We seem to be rushing forward to the past in the Middle East and it looks increasingly like a rerun of Vietnam which began with a request from the Saigon Government (that we had to ask for), initial popular support for intervention against the Communist bogey, followed by disillusionment and defeat. A domestic political asset Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Stick versus Carrot in Ukraine?
A major problem with the situation in Ukraine is that you can’t believe anything anyone says because they all have their political agendas to push and don’t hesitate to lie. Crimea, Odessa and the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine have Russian majorities who would produce a majority for being part of Russia in any free Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Russia boycott.
Anyone with any knowledge of Russia could have told the Prime Minister that his gratuitous public and personal attacks on Mr Putin and on Russia in general would lead to retaliation. Russia was left with no other option except humiliation and Russians are too proud and too sensitive to accept that. So the Australian Government Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. The hype of D-Day
The hype about the Normandy Landings on D-Day reflect a deep seated prejudice in the Australian press, public and politicians. Tony Abbot wants to use our minimal contribution to milk the occasion so he can be seen amongst the great and powerful and this is understandable but the claim by Abbott and our media Continue reading »
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Gavan Hogue. Quo Vadis Thailand?
Thaksin undoubtedly engaged in some corrupt activities. Whether he was more corrupt than the other mob is hard to say but he did get the numbers by actually doing something for the poor peasants especially in the depressed areas of the north and northeast. His critics accuse him of pork barreling but that is a Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Russia and the West.
The USA and NATO seem to see their relationship with Russia as one of goodies and baddies. This is naïve and their hairy chested approach is not helpful. This paper looks at the realities of Russian attitudes to the outside world. Many foreigners write off Vladimir Putin as a “fascist”, a communist throwback, a brutal Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue. Russia, Ukraine and Crimea.
Western rhetoric about the situation in Ukraine shows little understanding of the realities of Russia and Ukraine. If Western countries want a new cold war they are going the right way about it. It is a complex problem which cannot be solved by superficial noises about democracy and territorial integrity. Crimea is a special case Continue reading »
