Writer
Geoff Raby
Geoff Raby AO is an Australian economist and diplomat. He served as the Australian Ambassador to the People's Republic of China from February 2007 until August 2011.
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China grievances conflated into demands.
Peter Hartcher on the ABC presented China’s list of grievances as if they were some kind of official demarche made on the Australian Government. He intones repeatedly about these ‘demands’ as if they had the status of Martin Luther’s 95 theses nailed to the chapel door at Wittenberg University which started the Reformation. That is… Continue reading »
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The Chinese Communist Party: does it stay or does it go?
Contemporary China cannot be comprehended without understanding the role of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). With 85 million members it represents a tiny share of the total population (1.4 billion) but is the world’s largest political party. Its organisation, structure and internal discipline ensure it is the spinal cord of governance of the People’s Republic… Continue reading »
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Morrison-Naked in Cornwall with ‘allies’ backfilling the markets we have lost in China
Far from being a vindication of the Government’s China policies, the G7 plus 4 meeting highlighted the abject failure of Australia’s reckless foreign policy towards China. Australia alone of the 11 nations present had no official contact with China and significant parts of its trade suspended, which others at the meeting are busily back filling…. Continue reading »
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The Five Eyes does not have our back.
It is risible to see the Australian Foreign Minister setting off to New Zealand to pull the Kiwis into line over their lack of support for attempts by the so-called Five Eyes of Anglo Saxon countries to pressure China…. Continue reading »
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Why Australia and the West suffer from Sinophrenia. China, the bubble that never pops.
On the economic front, China has consistently confounded the pessimists. As China grows and grows, critics can’t decide whether the Asian giant is about to collapse or is set to take us over…. Continue reading »
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Between the Lines on China: Geoff Raby
Transcript of Geoff Raby’s appearance on Tom Switzer’s Between the Lines on ABC…. Continue reading »
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Australia has made itself an outlier in its dealing with China
The Prime Minister’s dash to Japan to meet the new Japanese Prime Minister – the first foreign leader to do so – should be welcomed. It is unusual in terms of diplomatic protocol for an established leader to visit a newly appointed leader, not the other way around, unless it is the US for which… Continue reading »
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Finding our place in the new world order – book extract (AFR 30.10.2020)
Central to understanding the emerging world order is to comprehend China’s strategic intentions and potential. The question of whether China is an expansionary power or not becomes crucial in understanding how the new order will unfold…. Continue reading »
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China is opening the door. Will Australia walk through it? (AFR Oct 7, 2020)
The Financial Review’s interview with a top Chinese diplomat would have been approved at the top. The Morrison government is obdurate if it does not take up the gesture…. Continue reading »
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A tit for tat with no end point (AFR Sep 10, 2020)
A get-tough policy on China with no apparent goal has left Austral as the only developed country with no media representation in the country…. Continue reading »
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No need for buyer’s remorse: realism key to Australia’s engagement with China
Australia, unlike the US, never expected China to become like us. That’s why the relationship continues to be an outstanding investment in our prosperity and security…. Continue reading »
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Why has Labor lost its once-strong voice on foreign policy? (AFR August 25, 2020)
The opposition has failed to ask what the government has received in return for its lavish support of Trump’s regional strategies…. Continue reading »
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The Australian Government regards China as a strategic competitor, a revisionist power, and one that must be resisted.
At last the contradiction that over the past four years has been at the heart of Australian foreign and security policy towards China has been resolved. In a series of important announcements, the Australian Government has now made it clear that it regards China as a strategic competitor, a revisionist power, and one that must… Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. PM’s Virus Inquiry was a Lose-Lose Call (AFR 4.5.20)
The Prime Minister and his Foreign Minister have handily demonstrated over the past fortnight how not to get an international inquiry into the origins and early management, or mismanagement, of COVID-19. It has been a useful lesson for students of strategy and how the Government in future might better advance Australian national interests…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY supports Pearls and Irritations.
Pearls & Irritations has become indispensable reading for those with a serious interest in public policy and commentary…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY.- China is coming out the winner in the coronavirus pandemic
With increased confidence in the Chinese bond market and lagging health measures taken in many of the worlds richest countries, Beijing may come out as an economic winner after the global coronavirus pandemic…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY COVID-19 is unlikely to be Xi’s Chernobyl moment(AFR 2.2.2020)
Cynicism is prevalent but is trumped by the CCP’s patriotic narrative and the government’s performance in delivering on people’s expectations…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Australia-China:The year ahead (UTS/ACRI Forum5.2.2020)
Civil emergencies have marked the start of the New Year for both Canberra and Beijing. Each in its own way is likely to have some implications for foreign policy and how the bilateral relationship is managed…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY.-Why Xi Jinping has had a very good year(AFR 18.12.2019)
China’s leader has shrugged off a trade war and an uprising in Hong Kong, and confounded Australia’s establishment security hawks…. Continue reading »
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China in a time of change
Contemporary China cannot be comprehended without understanding the role of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). With 85 million members it represents a tiny share of the total population (1.4 billion) but is the world’s largest political party. … Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Beijing’s Own Goal on Hastie and Johnson (Australian Financial Review, 21 November 2019)
These days there is never a dull moment in Australia-China relations. After a seeming slight thaw with the recent meeting between Prime Minister Morrison and Premier LI Keqiang in Thailand on the margins of the recent ASEAN meeting, Beijing has now spectacularly kicked an own-goal…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Beijing’s Winning Hand in Hong Kong
Far from Hong Kong being a negative and putting Xi under pressure, as is commonly believed by most foreign commentators, including myself, the ongoing disturbance and violence have achieved two things for the Communist Party: fatal damage within China to democracy’s brand and confirmation of the US’s agenda of regime change within China…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The lowest ebb – the decline and decline of Australia’s relationship with China
Today, the Australia-China relationship is at its lowest point since diplomatic relations began 46 years ago. (This Annual La Trobe China Oration was delivered on 29 October 2019. It is much longer than usual postings. The issues involved however are very important and very topical. John Menadue)… Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The China Threat leads to dead ends (Australian Financial Review, 29 October 2019)
The Australia-China relationship is at its lowest point since diplomatic relations began 46 years ago. This is something the Australian Government doesn’t wish to discuss. Its diplomats are paid to put a positive spin on things. Elements of the conservative populist media almost rejoice in this state of affairs…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. An Economic Giant With More Brittle Politics Than Ever. AFR 1 October 2019
China’s 70th Anniversary will be a razzle-dazzle extravaganza celebrating the achievements of the Communist Party of China since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. The party-state’s propaganda machinery has already been in over-drive extolling the Party’s achievements over the past 70years. On Tuesday, it will reach its peak with a massive military parade… Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The end of Hong Kong as we know it (AFR 6 Sep 2019)
Tragically, the turmoil in Hong Kong can only end badly. No good outcomes are available to the participants. Whatever happens, Hong Kong will never be the same again. 2046, the last year of the 50-year transition, will begin once the streets are cleared, however that is achieved. Hong Kong could well become a “black swan”… Continue reading »
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Our China Threat is based on a fundamental error (Australian Financial Review, 19 August 2019)
Andrew Hastie’s intervention on the China Threat helpfully highlights the extent to which Australia’s intelligence, security and defence establishment (ISDE) is running Australia’s China foreign policy. In stark language he has laid out many of the assumptions that underly the supposed Threat. Contrary to the Prime Minister’s assertion, as Chair of the Parliamentary Joint Committee… Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Xi Jinping: much more than just one man (The Interpreter, Lowy Institute, 16 July 2019)
Book Review: Xi Jinping: The Backlash by Richard McGregor (Penguin, Lowy Institute, 2019) Richard McGregor has written a dazzling account of the first six years of the Xi Jinping era and what he sees as the “backlash” to Xi’s increasing authoritarianism domestically and assertive foreign and defence policies…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The Problem with China’s Soft Power: It doesn’t have any( AFR 17 July 2017)
Last week the US Pace Gallery announced it was closing its flagship contemporary art gallery in the famous 798 art space and expanding at home. Also last week, police squads and bulldozers moved in to demolish several more of Beijing’s spontaneously formed art villages…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY and IRVIN STUDIN. Can Australia think for itself?
Some years ago, in his usually provocative way, Kishore Mahbubhani published a polemic, Can Asians Think? It was his push back against the uni-polar moment and the perceived arrogance of the Washington Consensus. Asia was capable of working out its own policies for its own circumstances. There was no one size fits all. In this… Continue reading »
