Writer
Geoff Raby
Geoff Raby AO is an Australian economist and diplomat. He served as the Australian Ambassador to the People's Republic of China from February 2007 until August 2011.
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Why Australia and the West suffer from Sinophrenia. China, the bubble that never pops.
On the economic front, China has consistently confounded the pessimists. As China grows and grows, critics can’t decide whether the Asian giant is about to collapse or is set to take us over…. Continue reading »
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Between the Lines on China: Geoff Raby
Transcript of Geoff Raby’s appearance on Tom Switzer’s Between the Lines on ABC…. Continue reading »
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Australia has made itself an outlier in its dealing with China
The Prime Minister’s dash to Japan to meet the new Japanese Prime Minister – the first foreign leader to do so – should be welcomed. It is unusual in terms of diplomatic protocol for an established leader to visit a newly appointed leader, not the other way around, unless it is the US for which… Continue reading »
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Finding our place in the new world order – book extract (AFR 30.10.2020)
Central to understanding the emerging world order is to comprehend China’s strategic intentions and potential. The question of whether China is an expansionary power or not becomes crucial in understanding how the new order will unfold…. Continue reading »
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China is opening the door. Will Australia walk through it? (AFR Oct 7, 2020)
The Financial Review’s interview with a top Chinese diplomat would have been approved at the top. The Morrison government is obdurate if it does not take up the gesture…. Continue reading »
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A tit for tat with no end point (AFR Sep 10, 2020)
A get-tough policy on China with no apparent goal has left Austral as the only developed country with no media representation in the country…. Continue reading »
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No need for buyer’s remorse: realism key to Australia’s engagement with China
Australia, unlike the US, never expected China to become like us. That’s why the relationship continues to be an outstanding investment in our prosperity and security…. Continue reading »
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Why has Labor lost its once-strong voice on foreign policy? (AFR August 25, 2020)
The opposition has failed to ask what the government has received in return for its lavish support of Trump’s regional strategies…. Continue reading »
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The Australian Government regards China as a strategic competitor, a revisionist power, and one that must be resisted.
At last the contradiction that over the past four years has been at the heart of Australian foreign and security policy towards China has been resolved. In a series of important announcements, the Australian Government has now made it clear that it regards China as a strategic competitor, a revisionist power, and one that must… Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. PM’s Virus Inquiry was a Lose-Lose Call (AFR 4.5.20)
The Prime Minister and his Foreign Minister have handily demonstrated over the past fortnight how not to get an international inquiry into the origins and early management, or mismanagement, of COVID-19. It has been a useful lesson for students of strategy and how the Government in future might better advance Australian national interests…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY supports Pearls and Irritations.
Pearls & Irritations has become indispensable reading for those with a serious interest in public policy and commentary…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY.- China is coming out the winner in the coronavirus pandemic
With increased confidence in the Chinese bond market and lagging health measures taken in many of the worlds richest countries, Beijing may come out as an economic winner after the global coronavirus pandemic…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY COVID-19 is unlikely to be Xi’s Chernobyl moment(AFR 2.2.2020)
Cynicism is prevalent but is trumped by the CCP’s patriotic narrative and the government’s performance in delivering on people’s expectations…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Australia-China:The year ahead (UTS/ACRI Forum5.2.2020)
Civil emergencies have marked the start of the New Year for both Canberra and Beijing. Each in its own way is likely to have some implications for foreign policy and how the bilateral relationship is managed…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY.-Why Xi Jinping has had a very good year(AFR 18.12.2019)
China’s leader has shrugged off a trade war and an uprising in Hong Kong, and confounded Australia’s establishment security hawks…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. China in a time of change.
The Chinese Communist Party: Does It Stay or Does It Go? Contemporary China cannot be comprehended without understanding the role of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). With 85 million members it represents a tiny share of the total population (1.4 billion) but is the world’s largest political party. … Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Beijing’s Own Goal on Hastie and Johnson (Australian Financial Review, 21 November 2019)
These days there is never a dull moment in Australia-China relations. After a seeming slight thaw with the recent meeting between Prime Minister Morrison and Premier LI Keqiang in Thailand on the margins of the recent ASEAN meeting, Beijing has now spectacularly kicked an own-goal…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Beijing’s Winning Hand in Hong Kong
Far from Hong Kong being a negative and putting Xi under pressure, as is commonly believed by most foreign commentators, including myself, the ongoing disturbance and violence have achieved two things for the Communist Party: fatal damage within China to democracy’s brand and confirmation of the US’s agenda of regime change within China…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The lowest ebb – the decline and decline of Australia’s relationship with China
Today, the Australia-China relationship is at its lowest point since diplomatic relations began 46 years ago. (This Annual La Trobe China Oration was delivered on 29 October 2019. It is much longer than usual postings. The issues involved however are very important and very topical. John Menadue)… Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The China Threat leads to dead ends (Australian Financial Review, 29 October 2019)
The Australia-China relationship is at its lowest point since diplomatic relations began 46 years ago. This is something the Australian Government doesn’t wish to discuss. Its diplomats are paid to put a positive spin on things. Elements of the conservative populist media almost rejoice in this state of affairs…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. An Economic Giant With More Brittle Politics Than Ever. AFR 1 October 2019
China’s 70th Anniversary will be a razzle-dazzle extravaganza celebrating the achievements of the Communist Party of China since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. The party-state’s propaganda machinery has already been in over-drive extolling the Party’s achievements over the past 70years. On Tuesday, it will reach its peak with a massive military parade… Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The end of Hong Kong as we know it (AFR 6 Sep 2019)
Tragically, the turmoil in Hong Kong can only end badly. No good outcomes are available to the participants. Whatever happens, Hong Kong will never be the same again. 2046, the last year of the 50-year transition, will begin once the streets are cleared, however that is achieved. Hong Kong could well become a “black swan”… Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Our China Threat is based on a fundamental error (Australian Financial Review, 19 August 2019)
Andrew Hastie’s intervention on the China Threat helpfully highlights the extent to which Australia’s intelligence, security and defence establishment (ISDE) is running Australia’s China foreign policy. In stark language he has laid out many of the assumptions that underly the supposed Threat. Contrary to the Prime Minister’s assertion, as Chair of the Parliamentary Joint Committee… Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Xi Jinping: much more than just one man (The Interpreter, Lowy Institute, 16 July 2019)
Book Review: Xi Jinping: The Backlash by Richard McGregor (Penguin, Lowy Institute, 2019) Richard McGregor has written a dazzling account of the first six years of the Xi Jinping era and what he sees as the “backlash” to Xi’s increasing authoritarianism domestically and assertive foreign and defence policies…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The Problem with China’s Soft Power: It doesn’t have any( AFR 17 July 2017)
Last week the US Pace Gallery announced it was closing its flagship contemporary art gallery in the famous 798 art space and expanding at home. Also last week, police squads and bulldozers moved in to demolish several more of Beijing’s spontaneously formed art villages…. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY and IRVIN STUDIN. Can Australia think for itself?
Some years ago, in his usually provocative way, Kishore Mahbubhani published a polemic, Can Asians Think? It was his push back against the uni-polar moment and the perceived arrogance of the Washington Consensus. Asia was capable of working out its own policies for its own circumstances. There was no one size fits all. In this… Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Hong Kong’s relationship with Beijing has been changed for ever
Hong Kong’s relationship with Beijing has been changed for ever Whatever the precise figure, the demonstrations in Hong Kong were the biggest ever in the city and possibly the biggest in Chinese history against a government. Confident in the power of their unstoppable numbers a bloody catastrophe was just avoided by the good sense of… Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. What a Morrison Government could do on China.
The Accidental Morrison Government needs now to face up to Australia’s most important foreign policy challenge: how to restore relations with China. Under Turnbull/Bishop’s mismanagement, the relationship plumbed its lowest depth since diplomatic relations were established 47 years ago. Doing so won’t be easy and will require substantive policy changes, not merely a re-packaging of… Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Wresting China diplomacy back from the securicrats.
In the fading days of the Morrison Government, two important decisions are likely to be overlooked. Both came last week. One was to establish the National Foundation for Australia-China Relations and the other the appointment of a new Ambassador to China. … Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Trump will create early tests for a new Labor Government (AFR 13.2.2019)
In a few months, Labor is likely to take charge of Australia’s foreign policy and security. It will be doing so with a global order vastly different that which existed last time it held power. It is important then to consider how prepared is Labor for the task. … Continue reading »
