Writer
Geoff Raby
<b>Geoff Raby</b> AO was Australia’s ambassador to China (2007–11); ambassador to APEC (2003–5); and ambassador to the World Trade Organisation (1998–2001). He is chair of VisAsia at the Art Gallery of NSW and chair of Western Sydney University’s Australia–China Institute of Arts and Culture. Raby was awarded the Order of Australia in 2019 for services to Australia–China relations and to international trade. He is an independent company director and author of China’s Grand Strategy and Australia’s Future in the New World Order, MUP, 2020.
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No need for buyer’s remorse: realism key to Australia’s engagement with China
Australia, unlike the US, never expected China to become like us. That’s why the relationship continues to be an outstanding investment in our prosperity and security. Continue reading »
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Why has Labor lost its once-strong voice on foreign policy? (AFR August 25, 2020)
The opposition has failed to ask what the government has received in return for its lavish support of Trump’s regional strategies. Continue reading »
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The Australian Government regards China as a strategic competitor, a revisionist power, and one that must be resisted.
At last the contradiction that over the past four years has been at the heart of Australian foreign and security policy towards China has been resolved. In a series of important announcements, the Australian Government has now made it clear that it regards China as a strategic competitor, a revisionist power, and one that must Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. PM’s Virus Inquiry was a Lose-Lose Call (AFR 4.5.20)
The Prime Minister and his Foreign Minister have handily demonstrated over the past fortnight how not to get an international inquiry into the origins and early management, or mismanagement, of COVID-19. It has been a useful lesson for students of strategy and how the Government in future might better advance Australian national interests. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY supports Pearls and Irritations.
Pearls & Irritations has become indispensable reading for those with a serious interest in public policy and commentary. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY.- China is coming out the winner in the coronavirus pandemic
With increased confidence in the Chinese bond market and lagging health measures taken in many of the worlds richest countries, Beijing may come out as an economic winner after the global coronavirus pandemic. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY COVID-19 is unlikely to be Xi’s Chernobyl moment(AFR 2.2.2020)
Cynicism is prevalent but is trumped by the CCP’s patriotic narrative and the government’s performance in delivering on people’s expectations. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Australia-China:The year ahead (UTS/ACRI Forum5.2.2020)
Civil emergencies have marked the start of the New Year for both Canberra and Beijing. Each in its own way is likely to have some implications for foreign policy and how the bilateral relationship is managed. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY.-Why Xi Jinping has had a very good year(AFR 18.12.2019)
China’s leader has shrugged off a trade war and an uprising in Hong Kong, and confounded Australia’s establishment security hawks. Continue reading »
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China in a time of change
Contemporary China cannot be comprehended without understanding the role of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). With 85 million members it represents a tiny share of the total population (1.4 billion) but is the world’s largest political party. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Beijing’s Own Goal on Hastie and Johnson (Australian Financial Review, 21 November 2019)
These days there is never a dull moment in Australia-China relations. After a seeming slight thaw with the recent meeting between Prime Minister Morrison and Premier LI Keqiang in Thailand on the margins of the recent ASEAN meeting, Beijing has now spectacularly kicked an own-goal. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Beijing’s Winning Hand in Hong Kong
Far from Hong Kong being a negative and putting Xi under pressure, as is commonly believed by most foreign commentators, including myself, the ongoing disturbance and violence have achieved two things for the Communist Party: fatal damage within China to democracy’s brand and confirmation of the US’s agenda of regime change within China. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The lowest ebb – the decline and decline of Australia’s relationship with China
Today, the Australia-China relationship is at its lowest point since diplomatic relations began 46 years ago. (This Annual La Trobe China Oration was delivered on 29 October 2019. It is much longer than usual postings. The issues involved however are very important and very topical. John Menadue) Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The China Threat leads to dead ends (Australian Financial Review, 29 October 2019)
The Australia-China relationship is at its lowest point since diplomatic relations began 46 years ago. This is something the Australian Government doesn’t wish to discuss. Its diplomats are paid to put a positive spin on things. Elements of the conservative populist media almost rejoice in this state of affairs. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. An Economic Giant With More Brittle Politics Than Ever. AFR 1 October 2019
China’s 70th Anniversary will be a razzle-dazzle extravaganza celebrating the achievements of the Communist Party of China since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. The party-state’s propaganda machinery has already been in over-drive extolling the Party’s achievements over the past 70years. On Tuesday, it will reach its peak with a massive military parade Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The end of Hong Kong as we know it (AFR 6 Sep 2019)
Tragically, the turmoil in Hong Kong can only end badly. No good outcomes are available to the participants. Whatever happens, Hong Kong will never be the same again. 2046, the last year of the 50-year transition, will begin once the streets are cleared, however that is achieved. Hong Kong could well become a “black swan” Continue reading »
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Our China Threat is based on a fundamental error (Australian Financial Review, 19 August 2019)
Andrew Hastie’s intervention on the China Threat helpfully highlights the extent to which Australia’s intelligence, security and defence establishment (ISDE) is running Australia’s China foreign policy. In stark language he has laid out many of the assumptions that underly the supposed Threat. Contrary to the Prime Minister’s assertion, as Chair of the Parliamentary Joint Committee Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Xi Jinping: much more than just one man (The Interpreter, Lowy Institute, 16 July 2019)
Book Review: Xi Jinping: The Backlash by Richard McGregor (Penguin, Lowy Institute, 2019) Richard McGregor has written a dazzling account of the first six years of the Xi Jinping era and what he sees as the “backlash” to Xi’s increasing authoritarianism domestically and assertive foreign and defence policies. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The Problem with China’s Soft Power: It doesn’t have any( AFR 17 July 2017)
Last week the US Pace Gallery announced it was closing its flagship contemporary art gallery in the famous 798 art space and expanding at home. Also last week, police squads and bulldozers moved in to demolish several more of Beijing’s spontaneously formed art villages. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY and IRVIN STUDIN. Can Australia think for itself?
Some years ago, in his usually provocative way, Kishore Mahbubhani published a polemic, Can Asians Think? It was his push back against the uni-polar moment and the perceived arrogance of the Washington Consensus. Asia was capable of working out its own policies for its own circumstances. There was no one size fits all. In this Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Hong Kong’s relationship with Beijing has been changed for ever
Hong Kong’s relationship with Beijing has been changed for ever Whatever the precise figure, the demonstrations in Hong Kong were the biggest ever in the city and possibly the biggest in Chinese history against a government. Confident in the power of their unstoppable numbers a bloody catastrophe was just avoided by the good sense of Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. What a Morrison Government could do on China.
The Accidental Morrison Government needs now to face up to Australia’s most important foreign policy challenge: how to restore relations with China. Under Turnbull/Bishop’s mismanagement, the relationship plumbed its lowest depth since diplomatic relations were established 47 years ago. Doing so won’t be easy and will require substantive policy changes, not merely a re-packaging of Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Wresting China diplomacy back from the securicrats.
In the fading days of the Morrison Government, two important decisions are likely to be overlooked. Both came last week. One was to establish the National Foundation for Australia-China Relations and the other the appointment of a new Ambassador to China. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Trump will create early tests for a new Labor Government (AFR 13.2.2019)
In a few months, Labor is likely to take charge of Australia’s foreign policy and security. It will be doing so with a global order vastly different that which existed last time it held power. It is important then to consider how prepared is Labor for the task. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. How a desert book festival outshone the chill over Davos.
Last week two major events on the calendar of global gatherings kicked off the New Year. They could not have been further apart. Some 20,000 attendees, mainly middle aged and older, made their way up the snow blanketed steep valleys of far eastern Switzerland to the World Economic Forum’s annual gathering of the global business Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. China needs a grown-up foreign policy for a changed era.
At the key 19th Party Congress in October 2017, Xi Jinping set out his signature policy – Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era – which, unusually early on in his term, was inscribed into the Party’s Constitution as Xi Jinping “Thought”. Socialism with Chinese Characters was Deng’s contribution to the Party’s corpus. Xi Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Xi Jinping’s Year of Living Dangerously.
2018 may well go down as a defining year for President Xi Jinping’s leadership – one that marks the beginning of the end for the “President for Life”. President Xi began the year in full command of the country, seemingly ascendant on the world stage with his signature Belt and Road Initiative and, in the Continue reading »
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Australia has normalised relations with a China-led future (Australian Financial Review, 21.11.18)
The Australia-China relationship is almost back to normal. The speed at which it has recovered has surprised. It has taken two statesman-like speeches by the former Prime Minister and his successor, and the appointment of a new Foreign Minister as previously suggested in this column. The anticipated imminent visit by PM Morrison to Beijing will Continue reading »
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Time to ground Australia’s China fear in facts (AFR 29.10.18)
As December draws near, thoughts turn to annual anniversaries and remembrances. This December marks the 51st anniversary of one of the more bizarre events in Australia’s political history. On December 17, 1967, then prime minister Harold Holt disappeared while swimming at Portsea beach. He was alone at the time and the surf was rough. He Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. East Asia Just Became a More Dangerous Place
Hugh White in his controversial 2010 book, China Choice, warned Australian policy makers that with the rise of China, the time would come when the US would have to make a choice as to whether to withdraw gradually from East Asia and allow China strategic space for its continued expansion or to take a stand Continue reading »
