Writer
Michael Keating
Michael Keating is a former Secretary of the Departments of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Finance and Employment, and Industrial Relations. He is presently a visiting fellow at the Australian National University.
-
MICHAEL KEATING. The Government’s Economic Response to the Coronavirus.
The Government’s economic stimulus package has generally been welcomed. But how good is it, and what are the implications for the longer-term economic outlook? Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. Continuing economic stagnation
Wednesday’s release of the national accounts for the December quarter reported better economic growth than many of the pundits feared. But there is no cause for celebration. Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. How good is the labour market?
The Australian economy has been stagnating for the last five years, with annual GDP growth averaging only 2½ per cent, and only 1¾ per cent for the last four quarters ending last September. Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. The Gaetjens Report: a footnote
The Government has refused to release the Gaetjens report which purportedly exonerates the former Minister, Bridget McKenzie, and thereby the Government from charges of political bias in the distribution of the Community Sport Infrastructure grants. But why this refusal to release the report – the only obvious answer is because the report cannot stand-up to Continue reading »
-
Scomo and the Public Service: How Bad Can It Get?
The Report by the Secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Phil Gaetjens, into Bridget McKenzie’s handling of the Community Sport Infrastructure grants fails to address key questions and raises serious concerns about the relationship between the Government and the Public Service. Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. Scott Morrison’s Policy Agenda
As is frequently observed, Scott Morrison’s Government has a remarkably thin policy agenda. This article explores why this lack of ambition – indeed resistance to change – makes perfect sense from Morrison’s point of view. Continue reading »
-
Dwelling construction is still falling despite record low interest rates
Monetary policy has lifted the prices of the most expensive dwellings, but this impact is yet to flow through to the rest of the housing market. This experience reinforces doubts about the effectiveness of monetary policy when inflation and therefore interest rates are very low. Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING.-Trump’s fantasies and trade realities.
Trump’s trade war with China cannot and has not succeeded. But Trump risks doing major damage to the rules-based global trading system and the future of the world economy. Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. Policy Advice: The Thodey Review of the APS and the Government’s Response
This article discusses the key role that the Australian Public Service (APS) should play in the development of government policy and the recommendations that the Thodey Review of APS makes to restore that role. Unfortunately, the Government is not interested, and has rejected all these recommendations. Continue reading »
-
The Budget surplus: is it believable and at what cost?
The Government is triumphing its prospective Budget surplus, but are the economic forecasts for economic recovery realistic, and can the surplus really be achieved while “guaranteeing the essential services on which Australians rely”. Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. Economic stagnation continues
Last Wednesday’s release of the national accounts for the September quarter confirmed what we already knew – economic stagnation continues. Most importantly, it is hard to see why the economy will ever improve under present policies. Instead we need a new and different economic strategy. Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. Retirement Incomes Review: Part 2
The Government’s independent Review of the retirement incomes system has identified four criteria against which that system should be judged: adequacy, equity, sustainability and cohesion. Yesterday I reviewed the performance of the Australian retirement income system against the criteria of adequacy. This article completes the review against the other three criteria. Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. Retirement Incomes Review: Part 1
The Mercer Global Pension Index rates the Australian retirement income system as number three in the world. Nevertheless, the Government has commissioned an independent Review, and this article and another tomorrow discuss whether and how our retirement income system might be improved. Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING-Trump’s Re-election Prospects and the Economy.
The secular stagnation of the American economy over this century helped propel Donald Trump into the White House. So far President Trump is popularly credited with achieving some improvement in the US economy, but the economic outlook may well have deteriorated by the time of the next US election. Continue reading »
-
Morrison fiddles while Australia burns
I had the privilege of serving closely all of the Prime Ministers from Whitlam to Howard. Each of them sought this office because they wanted to pursue a policy agenda they thought would make Australia better. However, the evidence suggests that Scott Morrison is different – his objective is seemingly limited to being there. Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. Australia’s Political Fault Lines.
This article takes issue with a recent article by John Menadue which argues that a largely unchallenged and powerful oligarchy is wielding untrammelled political power. Instead, a number of other reasons are proposed as to why our political parties have fragmented, and how that has made the achievement of necessary policy compromises more difficult. Nevertheless, Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING . Economic Growth ,Redistribution and Climate Change.
Many pundits are arguing that if Labor is to become competitive at the next election it must focus on economic growth and jobs and abandon or at least downgrade its policies for income redistribution and to combat climate change. The evidence, however, is precisely the reverse. It is these policies that are the key to Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING- Scott Morrison and the ‘Quiet Australians’
Prime Minister Morrison says that he will make sure that government services are reliable and responsive to the needs of those “quiet Australians” whose legitimate expectations are consistent with past practice and social conventions. What that means for the growing number of other Australians, who are less able to have a go and look after Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. The Official View on the Economic Outlook.
The last twelve months has seen GDP per capita fall in Australia, but the Government and its key advisers still expect the economy to recover to trend rates of growth in the current financial year. Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank is still calling for more fiscal stimulus, while on the other hand the new Secretary of Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. Key Questions about Snowy Hydro 2.0
The Morrison Government has reaffirmed its commitment to expand the Snowy Scheme as a key part of its strategy to meet its target for carbon emissions. However, independent estimates suggest that the cost and completion date is blowing out dramatically. In addition, it is argued here that the pumped hydro power from the Snowy Scheme Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. The Increasing Divergence between Income and Wealth
Although economic growth, inflation and nominal incomes have all been sluggish for the last several years, asset prices have increased substantially. One consequence of this much faster rate of increase in asset prices than incomes is that wealth, rather than income has become the key driver of increasing inequality. Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. The Future of Monetary Policy
For the last forty years or more, economic orthodoxy has assigned the principal responsibility for macroeconomic demand management in the advanced economies to monetary policy. In recent years, however, inflation targets have been under-shot and incomes have continued to stagnate, while asset prices have boomed. This article discusses how these policy failures have led to Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. What’s Wrong with The Economy?
The headline economic news this week is that the IMF has revised down its forecast for the Australian economy. That should not have come as a surprise; it has been obvious for a few years that the Australian economy is not growing well. The underlying reason is low wage growth, and the real issue is Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. Drought Assistance: Is it efficient? Is it fair?
Australia is currently experiencing a severe drought; possibly the most severe on record. Not surprisingly there have been calls for governments to do more. Some have even claimed that Australia lacks a proper drought policy. This article discusses the key features of an ideal drought policy, and what are the respective responsibilities of those being Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING The Fiscal Outlook: Is the projected Budget surplus sustainable and should it be? Part 2
With a stagnant economy, there are strong arguments for a fiscal stimulus package that would almost certainly postpone the return to Budget surplus for a couple of years. But what of the longer term? This article uses the Medium Term Fiscal Projections recently released by the Parliamentary Budget Office to query the longer-term fiscal outlook, Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. Economic Update Part 1
The recent release of the National Accounts data confirms that the Australian economy is stuck in secular economic stagnation. This article argues that current policies are unlikely to restore economic growth sufficiently to allow Australia to realise its economic potential. The fiscal implications of this outlook for economic growth are further explored in a subsequent Continue reading »
-
The US-China trade relationship: Why Trump’s policies are doomed to fail
Donald Trump is deluded if he thinks that raising tariffs will reduce the US trade deficit. That deficit represents the fact that the US is spending more than it earns. Unless this fact is altered – and Trump has increased the fiscal deficit – the increase in US tariffs will automatically be offset by an Continue reading »
-
How good is Scott Morrison?
By any standard, Scott Morrison’s Government has a very threadbare policy agenda. Furthermore, the Government seems resistant to new ideas, whether they are from its backbench or the public service. According to Scott Morrison the role of the public service is limited to implementing government policy, which may help explain the thinness of his Government’s Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING. Can we trust Scott Morrison?
Scott Morrison is on record as saying that no programs or services will be cut to pay for the tax cuts. The evidence, however, suggests that real government outlays will decline on a per capita basis, which would seem to mean that services will contract. Continue reading »
-
MICHAEL KEATING Why the Stage 3 tax cuts will need to be revisited.
In previous articles I argued that Stage 3 of the Government’s proposed tax cuts should be opposed (see Pearls & Irritations, 30 May and 24 June). However, the Government appears to have the numbers to pass its proposed tax cuts as one package, with or without the support of the Labor Party. Nevertheless, the Grattan Continue reading »