Writer
Mike Scrafton
Mike Scrafton was a Deputy Secretary in the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, senior Defence executive, CEO of a state statutory body, and chief of staff and ministerial adviser to the minister for defence.
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MIKE SCRAFTON. The Intelligent use of Intelligence
The United States Intelligence Community presents an annual assessment of national security threats to Congress. President Trump and the US Intelligence agencies are at odds over the 2019 Report. Putting aside Trump’s simplistic and intuitive understanding and his disregard for any evidence that contradicts his preconceptions, the enthusiasm with which Trump’s antagonists have grasped the Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. The fissures in NATO.
NATO defence ministers will meet in Brussels over 13-14 February. Member states will struggle to find any accord in the face of an array strategic and political challenges from internal and external sources. Overshadowing all else will be the vagaries of American policy and the Administration’s undisguised lack of enthusiasm for NATO, or any multilateral Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. Three democracies in crisis
The three nations that gave birth to modern democracy are exhibiting its weaknesses. Democracy is showing its limitations in dealing with contemporary challenges in UK, the US and France. Saving democracy from authoritarianism and populism is a popular subject. Yet first the viability of existing democratic institutions has to be questioned. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. The Geopolitics of Lombrum Naval Base
It is difficult to find a strong, rational strategic argument for Australia’s to return to Lombrum Naval Base (or HMPNGS Tarangau) on Manus Island. Of course, not all of Defence’s activities have strictly military objectives or relate directly to the defence of Australia and in the Southwest Pacific Defence cooperation has been a major component Continue reading »
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The need to think more seriously about war
Government justifications for major investments in ADF new capability and assertions by defence experts that Australia should substantially expand its defence spending rarely address two important issues. The prospect for military success in a war in East Asia and the expectations around Australian casualties—military and civilian. Thinking about the first issue helps shed some light Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. Hunting for the reason-The new frigates.
In line with normal practise, the government has plenty to say about the economic and employment benefits to flow from the acquisition of the new Hunter class frigates and a little bit about what they can do. But offers nothing about the strategic justification for these expensive naval assets. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON: NATO 2018 and Communique Dread
Dread and angst must be haunting the corridors of Europe’s foreign and defence ministries. The NATO Heads of State and Government will meet over 11 to 12 July 2018 in Brussels and the question of the communique will already be weighing heavy on ministers, advisers and officials. NATO is a consensus decision-making body but the Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. Looking down from the Trump/Kim summit: a geopolitical view
Of the risks attendant on the summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jung-un, the most grave is that the geopolitical consequences will be ignored. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. Rethinking Strategic Policy
Australia is faces an increasingly novel external environment. For strategic policymakers this means discarding as much old thinking as possible in order to understand the contours of that future. Crucially, the policymaker also must remain cognisant that the sine qua non of strategic policy is the use of lethal armed force in international relations. At Continue reading »
