Writer
Mike Scrafton
Mike Scrafton was a Deputy Secretary in the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, senior Defence executive, CEO of a state statutory body, and chief of staff and ministerial adviser to the minister for defence.
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The UN at 75: a real declaration of intent, or multilateral virtue signalling?
An atmosphere of unreality is building in advance of the virtual meeting of world leaders to mark the 75th anniversary of the United Nations (UN).  Nothing demonstrates this more than the proposed draft declaration. Rather than reaffirming the UN’s centrality, the draft declaration’s faux earnestness jars amid the current international reality. Additionally, it ignores the Continue reading »
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The strategic mirror: the Pentagon’s China report reveals converging power and strategy
From Australia’s perspective, the Pentagon’s 2020 Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China Report is valuable for two reasons. It reinforces the absurdity of Australia planning to participate in high-intensity conflict against China under any circumstances. Additionally, it reveals the symmetry between US and China strategic policy. Continue reading »
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Australia’s policies towards China have little support in the region.
The Southeast Asian states see themselves as being in a region where China and Japan have the most influence, and where the US’s influence is declining. The foundations of Australia’s strategic logic are very shaky. Continue reading »
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A bigger canvas: Russia, China and Australia’s strategic policy
In an article in The Conversation, Professor Alexey Muraviev has pointed out that Australia has failed to factor into its strategic calculations the relationship between China and Russia. While Russia poses no credible direct threat to Australia, it could be a key player in a conflict between the US and China. Continue reading »
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The current signs are ominous, and Australia is possibly stumbling blindly towards war.
Today’s risks and the history of war: recognising the unknowable. The point of no return is mostly only evident in hindsight, and nations occasionally find themselves unexpectedly teetering on the edge of conflict. Continue reading »
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Cancel culture, Nick Cave and the Harper’s Letter: a moan from the Ivory Tower or call to the liberal battlements?
Nick Cave has revived the issues raised in the Letter on Justice and Open Debate published on 7 July 2020 and signed by 150 noted authors, academics, and public intellectuals. Issues that cut straight to a key fault line in liberalism. Continue reading »
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Australian strategic policy: why we need a robust public debate
Australia’s writings on the history of strategic policy and military history are abundant and of a high quality. However, this knowledge is not reflected in the public debate on issues pertaining to Australia’s strategic policy choices. Continue reading »
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AUSMIN 2020: confirmation of Australia’s abandonment of strategic autonomy?
Australians should not be quite as comforted by the government’s recent statements around Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) as some have indicated. Reassuring word s are the slippery province of diplomacy. Strategic policy is founded in force structure and force posture. Continue reading »
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Confronting global warming: do democracies have the expertise?
Global warming, ecological collapse, biodiversity loss, and social injustice are complex, technical challenges. Understanding them and their relationship to each other requires high levels of expertise, and solutions will demand political leadership. Confidence that democracies can meet these challenges isn’t high. Continue reading »
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The Rationale for the 2020 Force Structure Plan: A 2040 War with China?
There is a mismatch between the urgent need to respond to the supposed recent deterioration in Australia’s strategic circumstances and the 2020 Force Structure Plan (FSP). Continue reading »
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The 2020 Defence Strategic Update: Finding coexistence with China
There is little to quarrel with in Hugh White’s assessment of the uncertainties in East Asia. His counsel to the government on the way forward for strategic policy, on the other hand, is less satisfactory. Continue reading »
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Race is not real: It’s time to stop acting as though it is.
For something that doesn’t exist race exerts a pernicious and persistent influence on society. Rational arguments and protests won’t exorcise the racial ghost and the struggle against its worst manifestations will be endless. Continue reading »
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The Australia-India Strategic Partnership: ‘Shared values’ mask the real strategic purpose
The phrase ‘shared values’ is regularly used as the basis for international relationships and alliances, and the lack of the same ‘shared values’ as the reason for adversarial relationships or friction. It is a mantra that is much over-used, and often deployed deceptively and hypocritically. Continue reading »
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Sovereignty and Self-determination: The wider implications of Israel and the West Bank
‘The great thing about sovereignty is we always respect the sovereignty of other nations and we simply expect the same in return’, said Australian Prime Minister Morrison on 14 May 2020. However, there is nothing simple about sovereignty and it makes a poor basis for foreign policy. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. The Deep State conspiracy theory
 When, without apparent reason, good things disappear or bad things appear it cannot be random. That’s when conspiracy theories flourish. The US presidential election campaign is haunted by one. Is Trump laying the groundwork for The Great Presidential Robbery? Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. Historical amnesia: Great power behaviour and criticism of China
Between 1890 and 1920 the democratic US became a great power. It’s trajectory from western hemisphere state to global power has some economic, military and foreign policy parallels with authoritarian China’s growth in the twenty-first century. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. A blinkered view: China in the Antarctic
The recent report Eyes wide open: Managing the Australia-China Antarctic relationship by Anthony Bergin and Tony Cross falls into the category of ‘if China’s doing it, its malevolent’. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. The harder reality of humanity’s road to the future
After the pandemic passes the world will be left with a series of far graver challenges. The solutions, if there are any, will only be found through clear-eyed, objective analysis of the interrelated causes and effects, shorn to the extent possible ideological assumptions. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. Regulation, tariffs and reform of supply chains.
The political leaders that brought us global supply chains, hollowed out public services, and dwindling administrative capacity, are potentially about to find themselves in a series of contradictions. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. The dogs of war cry wolf: The post-pandemic China threat
Two senior analysts of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) recently published pieces that put its reputation for sound analysis and practical policy recommendations at risk. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. Australia’s strategic quandary: political leadership and the abandonment of strategy
On current planning, in the next great war Australia will have no strategy. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. Blinded by ‘the science’: COVID-19 and the authority of science in public policy
Governments should not be able to avoid scrutiny and accountability for their actions by leaning on the authority of science. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. A tale of two Americas: Australia’s foreign policy choices post-pandemic
As Michael Shoebridge has rightly pointed out, how the US rebounds from the COVID-19 crisis will be important for international relations and Australia’s foreign policy. However, hagiography and selective historical references don’t substitute for serious reflection and reassessment. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. COVID-19 and preparing for global warming
The COVID-19 crisis tells us some important things. The flaws in the neo-liberal model have been exposed. Democratic politics have been stressed to breaking point. The shocks to the economic, social and fiscal systems required to stop global warming are shown to be unfeasible. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. Capability gaps: mean dogs and submarines
A flurry of submarine related commentaryhas followed a new Insight Economics report, Australia’s future submarine: do we need a plan B? Its arguments for submarine capability, and for a Collins 2.0 class to fill in until the Attack class enter service, lean very heavily on a rather fuzzy concept; the capability gap. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. COVID-19: ‘Dirty hands’ and political leadership in a crisis
Normally, bringing ethics and crisis politics together in a crisis is like putting Siamese fighting fish in the same tank; only one is likely to survive. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. Shades of herd immunity stalk COVID-19 government responses.
Seeping faintly through the pronouncements and policies of some government responses to the coronavirus pandemic are the vapours of older belief systems; a whiff of utilitarianism, the scent of social Darwinism, and the fetid reek of eugenics. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. When to take the military option off the table
Many of the Chinese regime’s practises are repugnant to democratic values and human rights. That distaste and disapproval doesn’t warrant Australian governments pursuing a crusade or adopting an irrational strategic policy based on fighting a war with China, either in the company of the US or alone. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. What do the Chinese think of the US-Australian Alliance?
With similar articles in The Australian and The Strategist, Peter Jennings has lauded the government’s decision to refurbish and expand RAAF Base Tindal in the Northern Territory as ‘a giant strategic step forward’. Continue reading »
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MIKE SCRAFTON. Is the US a normal country?
Remarks at the Munich Security Conference by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper are full of unconscious irony. Continue reading »
