Writer
Mike Scrafton
Mike Scrafton was a Deputy Secretary in the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, senior Defence executive, CEO of a state statutory body, and chief of staff and ministerial adviser to the minister for defence.
-
Uighurs and glass houses
The West’s modern sensibility is rightly offended by the scale of Uighur incarcerations in Xinjiang the and the ruthlessness with which the Chinese government is pursuing the extermination of Uighur culture, language, and religion. To the contemporary mind these acts are repugnant. This notwithstanding, the darker episodes in European and American history nonetheless should be Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. Global warming – we’re screwed!
In 2018, the IPCC warned with high confidence that ‘Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if [the rate of emissions] continues to increase at the current rate’. The World Meteorological Organisation reported this week that in 2018 emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide had equalled or surpassed emissions Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. Irish Reunification-Child of Brexit
Arriving at agreement on a new Irish Constitution following a post-Brexit Border Poll would expose the cracks in Irish identity. There is little public evidence that any government—in the Republic, Northern Ireland, or the UK—has given serious thought to the steps that would need to follow a double yes vote. Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. It’s not all about Brexit
Everyone’s crystal ball is fogged. The outcome of the UK’s election is clouded. More than the future of the nation’s relationship with Europe depends on the outcome. Brexit might be one of the lesser consequences. Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. The Speech Albanese should have given
No! No! No! The headland speech given recently by Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, was just more of the tired old evidence that he doesn’t get it. His are the economic and political priorities of another time when people still believed resolutely in the worth of neo-liberal economics and unfettered globalisation. It was not the bold Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON.But what about war?
Military forces perform many functions, but their unique role is to fight wars. Though obvious, this is rarely addressed by commentators on defence policy or by governments. Professor Dibb’s presentation to Royal Australian Navy’s Sea Power Conference avoided direct references war. At the same function the Defence Minister’s speech was quiet on the ultimate point Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. The shallowness of Australia’s strategic policy
Two largely neglected issues highlight the paucity of Australia’s strategic policy; energy and global warming Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. The real basis of Morrison’s foreign policy
The Prime Minister’s speech ‘In our interest’ to the Lowry Institute is curious, befuddled, and a little disturbing. As is normal with such presentations, it was peppered with political bromides and Morrison did not drill deeply into the details. The tips of much bigger and weightier conceptual massifs were detectable through the fog of self-laudatory Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. The strategic significance of Abqaiq and Khurais
The debate over the military implications of relatively inexpensive drones and cruise missiles has been enlivened by the recent attacks on the Saudi Arabian oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais. This spectacular demonstration of the effectiveness of drones and cruise missiles has prompted claims that it has ‘changed global warfare’. Inevitably all modern defence force Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. Morrison and the absence of justice
In his comments to IPAA, Prime Minister inadvertently illustrated the problem with government. It’s not the Westminster system of government or the role of the public service which are secondary issues. The primary question concerns the purpose of government. Morrison’s solution to the ‘trust deficit’ affecting democracy is wrong. Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. Abbott, more than an embarrassment
Former prime minister Tony Abbott’s ignorance of history and of the Europe European Union, and his tragic adulation of all things British, is simply embarrassing. His licensing of a permissive setting for white supremacists and white replacement conspiracy theorists is dangerous, irresponsible, and inexcusable. Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. The Afghanistan failure
President Trump’s muddled and reactive approach to foreign and strategic policy regularly distracts the media and commentators away from the geopolitical consequences of America’s actions under his stewardship. The coverage of the negotiations with the Taliban and proposed withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan is a perfect example. After eighteen years of war the US Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. On the blindness of politicians
The Senate’s Legal and Constitutional Affairs References Committee has generated one of the great jargon infested documents of recent times. The introduction to The Inquiry into nationhood, national identity and democracy Discussion paperreveals much about what is wrong with politics in Australia. Like a first year tutorial paper it traverses multiple issues trying to mention Continue reading »
-
Hong Kong and the ghost of Tiananmen
Michael Shoebridge of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has artfully given the appearance of logic to a melding of fact, supposition and obsession in order to reach the conclusion that it is ‘time for the international community to step up to prevent a foreseeable massacre that will further cleave China—and other authoritarian regimes—from the rest Continue reading »
-
Battles, campaigns, and wars
The United States Studies Centre’s latest publication, Averting Crisis: American strategy, military spending and collective defence in the Indo-Pacific, contrary to its title, offers up a path to crisis. While the report draws attention to the fading of the previously unchallengeable military dominance of the US, the recommendations for Australia are flawed. Continue reading »
-
The conversation about China
Senator Wong’s call for a mature conversation aboutf the issue of China is more than welcome. A serious discussions of the implications for Australia flowing from the rise of China was sadly missing from the recent election. However, there is an unexpected naivety in her suggestion that MPs and Senators receive ‘foreign affairs and national Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. The persistence of white supremacists in the US is the problem
In the wake of the recent murders by white supremacists, blame has been apportioned partially to President Trump’s rhetoric and to the availability of white replacement theory and white genocide conspiracy material. Both are relevant but the policy challenge is far greater. Even in the absence of both, white supremacists will persist. Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. Ministers and public servants
Geoff Gallop offers up eleven theses on Australian politics to provide public servants with a ‘nuanced understanding of politics’. His theses are more than a little condescending and simplistic. The theses seem directed at middle level or junior public servants, or maybe new entrants to the service. However, the nature of the relationship between senior Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. “I’m afraid of Americans”
The opinions to which we should pay most critical attention are those of commentators best placed to influence government. Peter Jennings, Executive Director of ASPI, is one. Now he is claiming a ‘new cold war with China is playing out in all but name’. Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. The real cost in How to Defend Australia.
In How to Defend Australia, Hugh White has produced a work that removes much of the mystery surrounding Australian defence policy making. The historical experiences and institutional influences affecting Australia’s major past and present strategic policy positions are lucidly set out. His main objective though is to make the case for a significant boost to Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. The Chief of the Defence Force and political warfare
General Angus Campbell’s presentation at ASPI’s conference War in 2015 was thoughtful and provocative. Some of the CDF’s views are germane and apt are others contestable. He opened by saying, ‘I sense a renewed concern in the world for the potential for state-on-state conflict’; however ‘political warfare’ was his main concern. Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. Strategy In A Bubble: ASPI’s war plans
ASPI’s relentless push for ever greater defence spending gets another iteration in Malcolm Davis’s Forward defence in depth for Australia . As a breathless list of ‘key horizon technologies’, Davis’s paper makes entertaining and informative reading. As a justification for putting Australia on a permanent war footing it is wanting. Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. The new national security – protection from global warming
Ian Dunlop has argued persuasively that global warming now represents an emergency situation ‘akin to wartime’. The alarmingly obstinate year-on-year increase in the levels of greenhouse gases being pumped into the atmosphere has brought this about and will ensure the IPCC prediction that ‘[G]lobal warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. Unquantifiable strategic madness of war on Iran
There have been reports that President Trump is less enthusiastic about attacking Iran than his advisers. For the moment, an unanticipated source of sanity. The current US posturing against Iran seems confected. It also seems mad. A US attack on Iran would be blatant and naked aggression. The knock on consequences could have strategic dimensions Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. IPBES and IPCC: Calamity cannot be averted
The key messages contained Intergovernmental Science- Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services’ (IPBES) Summary For Policymakers are not surprising. The trends have been well known for a long time, perhaps only the current scale of the crisis might be news. But if earlier reports like the IPCC’s Global Warming of 1.5C or UN’s World Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. The rules-based international order; or a ‘dead parrot’.
Strategic policy is perhaps the most challenging area of government. For decades policy settings have largely been perfunctory with the US alliance occupying the central place. The post-Cold War setting of a single dominant hegemon has meant policy makers haven’t had to operate in an international order characterised by balance-of-power considerations. Even the confrontation between Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. China in Australia’s Defence and Strategic Policy
An incoming government addressing China in defence policy and strategic policy must overcome the natural impulse to assume the future will be a linear projection of the present. There is no reasonable scenario in which a major war in East Asia involving China does not end in disastrous outcomes for Australia and that determines the Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. Political leadership and the next war.
If there is any consensus among commentators on geopolitics and strategic policy, it is that the world is entering into uncertain and dangerous times. In the term of the next Australian government political leadership could confront grave situations requiring decisions about war and peace. Few of Australia’s leaders, if any, have seen combat let alone Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. Warner’s blinkered warnings
Geraldine Dooge interviewed Nick Warner Director General of the Office of National Intelligence (podcast) for Radio National. As Warner is the principal adviser to the Prime Minister on intelligence matters his assessments of the strategic environment are of great interest. Continue reading »
-
MIKE SCRAFTON. The Golan Heights: Whose rules?
President Trump has recognised the 1981 Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights. Whatever Trump’s motives—genuine concern for Israel’s security, geostrategic positioning in the struggle against Iran, fulfilling a divine mission, or domestic politics—his act raises important geopolitical issues and questions of international law. Trump’s move should force the Australian government to revisit its prioritisation of Continue reading »
