Writer
Percy Allan
Percy Allan AM was Chair, Evidence Based Policy Research Project (2018-2022). He is also a Visiting Professor at the Institute for Public Policy and Governance, University of Technology Sydney. (Former Secretary, NSW Treasury and Chair, NSW T-Corp 1985-1994 and Chair, NSW Premier’s Council on the Cost & Quality of Government, 1999-2007)
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Is China an Imperialist nation?
I was recently sent a complete list of China’s invasions of other countries in the last 2,245 years to demonstrated that China is historically an imperial nation and hence dangerous. Continue reading »
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America’s latest move to block China’s economic rise
US lawmakers have introduced a bill that would bar US mutual funds from investing in indexes that track Chinese stocks (Bloomberg). According to Bloomberg “The legislation targets mutual funds that invest in indexes tracking primarily Chinese stocks, rather than those investing in indexes that only include some Chinese companies, according to Sherman’s office. However, the Continue reading »
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Global economic and financial review
The American economy is strong, Australia’s economy has slowed to a standstill, and Xi Jinping is proving to be a dry economic rationalist rather than a warm indulgent socialist. Read on for this week’s global economic and financial review. Continue reading »
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Boom or bubble: March market and economic review
Last Friday the All-Ords share index finally escaped its straitjacket of see-sawing sideways within a range of roundly 6,600 to 7,900 since April 2021. The All-Ords reached 8007.1 points, beating its previous high on the 4 January 2022 (7926.8). See chart below. Technical analysts view this breakout to be a particularly good omen. Continue reading »
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Is China repeating Australia’s mistake on Indigenous Affairs?
The South China Morning Post recently published an illuminating article on China’s policy towards ethnic minorities, with a particular focus on Inner Mongolia that has strived hardest to assimilate its Mongols with the rest of the Chinese population to promote a single national identity. But does China’s policy reflect the assimilation policies towards First Nations Continue reading »
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Tribute to a great public sector reformer, Don Nicholls AM
My late friend and mentor Don Nicholls was one of the great public servants of NSW where he was Chief Economist and then Deputy Secretary, NSW Treasury. Continue reading »
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China’s worrying economic policy drift
The Rhodium Group, an independent research organisation with a focus on China, says the nation’s economic policymaking process has stalled with it refusing to announce meaningful actions to overcome its pressing property and share market crashes let alone forge a clear path for the future. The full paper can be accessed here. Continue reading »
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Why Yang Hengjun should be released – he’s Walter Mitty not James Bond!
The standard media news bite is that Yang Hengjun is a Chinese born Australian pro-democracy writer who was unlawfully detained and now jailed for life in China. But the full story is murkier than that. Continue reading »
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Record highs: February market and economic review
Not only has the stock market shaken off its new year hangover but the All-Ords is now higher than after its Santa Rally in December 2023. Indeed, it has reached a record high. Continue reading »
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Can China escape a deflationary trap? Economic outlook 2024
Last year was the most widely anticipated recession in history because tight monetary policy, slower government spending and higher oil prices normally spell doom. Yet total economic output (GDP) in both America and Australia kept growing in real (after inflation) terms. So, what can we expect in 2024? Will economists get it right this year Continue reading »
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Rates cut outlook
The recent sharp falls in US, UK, European and Australian inflation rates have convinced analysts that central bank rate rises are over and the next move will be rate cuts in 2024. The US Federal Reserve chairman in the first half of December signalled that too. Continue reading »
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China is not a threat: debunking the US narrative
In this series, I explore how US narratives on the ‘China threat’ have become entrenched in Western security communities and how a ‘China threat’ narrative has been constructed by Republicans and Democrats in the United States in an attempt to create a “rally round the flag” effect designed to internally unite a deeply divided America. Continue reading »
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How to stop a Gaza apocalypse
Why Gaza urgently needs a plan B. (A repost from December 2023). Continue reading »
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Economic outlook – will 2024 be a hard, soft or no landing?
On the Australian economy, bulls and bears cannot both be right. 2024 will decide the fate of both economies and markets, a hard, soft or no landing. Continue reading »
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How to stop a Gaza apocalypse
Why Gaza urgently needs a plan B. Continue reading »
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Should Jim Chalmers adopt MMT to offer Swedish services with Swiss taxes?
Alan Kohler has written a thought-provoking piece suggesting Japan’s embrace of modern monetary theory (MMT) since 2001 might be the model for Treasurer Jim Chalmers meeting future social needs without raising taxes. MTT involves a central bank funding its government’s annual deficits and build-up of debt by printing digital money. Continue reading »
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The realpolitik of the Gaza war
If this 2022-23 opinion poll is correct then a clear majority of Palestinians want a single-Islamic state, not a shared Islamic-Jewish one let alone a two-state solution. Continue reading »
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China is not a threat: debunking the US narrative
In this series, I explore how US narratives on the ‘China threat’ have become entrenched in Western security communities and how a ‘China threat’ narrative has been constructed by Republicans and Democrats in the United States in an attempt to create a “rally round the flag” effect designed to internally unite a deeply divided America. Continue reading »
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China’s Military is built for defence, not to threaten others
In the final of this three-part series, I explore why China’s emphasis on expanding land and naval forces suggests its focus is on defence of its borders and seaborne trade, not offence. Continue reading »
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Why China is not planning to conquer other nations
Besides settling and securing its borders, China has no claims on other nations. Countries with grandiose territorial ambitions make no secret of them. This second article in a three-part series explores why China is not planning to conquer and occupy any other nation. Continue reading »
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Why China is not a threat: Sinophobia Unites Americans
Hatred of China is now the single issue that unites Democrats and Republicans. Having a perceived foe helps unite a deeply divided America internally, unless, of course, it becomes a losing cause. This three-part series explores how US narratives on the ‘China threat’ have become entrenched in the West, and why China is not a Continue reading »
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Chinese tourists turn their backs on Oz
The evidence is now in – Chinese tourists are largely boycotting Australia. Continue reading »
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Gaping contradiction in Australian Foreign Policy
Dear friends, an excellent piece has been published by Professor Hugh White in the Lowy Interpreter that highlights a contradiction in our federal government’s foreign policy. Continue reading »
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The shipping lie
Defence Minister Richard Marles has now told us why we need nuclear submarines – not to defend Taiwan or attack China, but to defend our merchant shipping. Sounds credible until one does the maths. Continue reading »
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The fiscal fallout of AUKUS
What are the budgetary implications of the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine deal? Continue reading »
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How to fix the broken system of public policy making
Last week the NSW Legislative Council introduced a standing order requiring that all government bills include a Statement of Public Interest (SPI). This is the first time in Australia that a public policy framework for interrogating bills has been given legal force. It’s a big breakthrough that other governments and parliaments should emulate. Continue reading »
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Anthony Albanese and Xi Jinping? Who started the trade war?
Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese is perpetuating the myth that China’s action in 2020 to restrict Australian exports was a bolt out of the blue that was uncalled for. President Xi will have a very different view. Continue reading »
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Could a second Trump Presidency leave Australia stranded?
Peter Hartcher’s recent piece on the ramifications of another Trump presidency undermines his usual argument that Australia must join America in confronting China and prepare for war with it. Continue reading »
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Anthony Albanese on China – What next? The Taiwan conflict
The large Chinese diaspora that helped Labor win office in the hope of better relations with China could switch its support to less hawkish Teal candidates likely to contest Labor seats at the next election. Continue reading »
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Anthony Albanese on China – What next on the human rights dilemma?
China is reported as undemocratic, persecuting Tibetan and Uighur minorities, incarcerating Hong Kong separatists, and having border skirmishes. But many other countries fit that label too, yet we court them rather than shun them. A notable example is Myanmar, where Australia refuses to join other Western nations in imposing sanctions on the military junta for Continue reading »