Mike Scrafton
Mike Scrafton was a Deputy Secretary in the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, senior Defence executive, CEO of a state statutory body, and chief of staff and ministerial adviser to the minister for defence.
Mike's articles (220 total)
Trump's quick deal with Putin could reshape the global order
Did anyone pay attention? If he wins, Donald Trump says he will bring about the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine between his election and inauguration, a period of about eleven weeks. In so doing, Trump might just destabilise the West and reshape the global order.
How democratic are the Western democracies?
The disinterested observer might be perplexed by the righteous posing of political leaders in democracies and be left wondering just exactly what is this precious bundle of values to which authoritarians are a threat.
Would Harris adopt the militarism of the failed Biden Doctrine?
Past experience of Donald Trump is fuelling intense anxiety among the allies and partners of America; that oddly fearful collection of wealthy supplicant states. As Trump’s prospects of electoral success seem to fade, the issue becomes, will Kamala Harris carve out a different foreign policy path as president from Biden’s failed doctrine?
The potential US withdrawal from AUKUS must be an election issue
Resolution of the tension between President Biden’s policy of strengthening America’s position through allies and partners, and the US Navy’s (USN) mission requirements, will come to a head in the next president’s term. The AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines will be at the centre.
Trump and Vance's theocratic republic of America
A Trump-Vance administration would likely enthusiastically embrace the Project 2025 agenda. No surer path exists for the fracturing of American society.
Beyond the stockade - is Australia ready for US isolationism?
A Republican administration under Donald Trump would bring a fundamental change to America’s engagement with the world, necessitating a radical reassessment and reformulation of Australia’s foreign, trade, and defence policies. Falling back on the faithful ally tactic would not suffice to buffer the prosperity and security of Australians.
Let's not forget our obligations to future generations
New modern coal and gas generation might be the best options if the main aim of policy was containing the cost of energy. However, even an expensive means of reducing greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions should be acceptable if we have an obligation to benefit future generations.
The aimlessness of the G7 on Ukraine only delays the inevitable
At some point there must come a crisis. The G7 and their allies and partners will either have to cease their support for Ukraine as the toll and costs become too great, or decide that the defeat of Russia is of such importance to them collectively that they engage militarily in the conflict.
Biden’s distorted D-Day history seeks to rally others to his endless wars
President Biden’s bellicose nationalism was again on display during the D-Day commemorations. In a pair of addresses, Biden not only sacralised war and exalted the virtues of ‘the American’. In the finest populist tradition, he misrepresented the history of the Second World War to rally Europeans to never-ending-war. It all passed with little real deconstruction from the media.
Three compelling reasons to exit ANZUS
How long can Australian politicians continue with the pretence that the American alliance aligns with the nation’s interests? Trump or Biden? It doesn’t really matter except for determining the path of America’s decline into illiberalism. ANZUS must be exited.
Australia's AUKUS tributes
Of course, at this time of rising living costs, economic uncertainty, and impending climate disaster, subsidising the British and American submarine construction industrial bases is the obvious priority. At least it seems that way to the Albanese government.
It's a huge policy failure that Australia can't defend itself
Not unexpectedly, the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine project has run into reality as Virginia class production slows down, leaving Australia with no Defence policy. A huge strategic failure, if endorsed government assessments are believed, which has left Australia vulnerable and dependent on America.
The new Pericles: Marles, master of the Seas
Thucydides has Pericles, the great Athenian statesman and strategist, observe that “Mastery of the sea is no small matter”. The Defence Minister should have been mindful of Pericles’ words as he launched the Enhanced Lethality Surface Combatant Fleet (ELSCF). Or he might have recalled Pericles’ caution that “I am far more afraid of our own mistakes than I am of the opposition’s plans.”
Biden re-elected could be the worst strategic outcome for Australia
It matters for Australia that Biden not be re-elected to the US presidency. A Trump administration might mean domestic chaos, violence, and division for the Republic, however, the danger is that Biden would be more likely to lead the world into catastrophic war. Another Trump imperium would be sadly the least worst, yet still terrible, alternative for the world.
Ethics-free realism explains, but shouldn't justify, Western responses to Gaza
Only a commitment to the precepts of realism can explain the procrastination and distancing by politicians from the slaughter and destruction in Gaza. Only the realist logic could see the flood of crocodile tears from governments for the poor Palestinians, without ever condemning America as the arsenal of Israel’s war on women and children. Only this logic can explain the weak remonstrations against Israel and the failure to see the crimes in Ukraine and the crimes in Gaza as indistinguishable.
Dangerous missionary: Biden's fanaticism is a threat to peace everywhere
President Biden’s fanaticism represents a threat to Australia’s interests. His statements need to be taken literally and seriously. While America’s allies and partners may prefer a Biden re-election, that outcome might be the worst result for global stability and peace.
Biden’s Valley Forge myth-making divides America and boosts Trump
President Biden’s Valley Forge address might have felt like a feat of oratorical brilliance to the coterie that is locked into a mythical America. However, it was wildly out of touch with the views of many voters. Dismissing the genuine grievances and discontent with politics-as-usual, and not recognising that Trump provides an appealing alternative to disgruntled voters disillusioned with the elites and institutions, was its most grievous shortcoming.
Abandoned sovereignty: Australia's intelligence function colonised by US
That the Albanese government could further compromise Australia’s sovereignty, international integrity and national interests seemed inconceivable. Yet, intelligence, a vital government function inextricably connected with independence and protecting national interest, is being penetrated and colonised by the Americans.
“O tempora. O mores.”: Will the American republic survive the continuing corrosion of political norms?
The American republic today and the Roman republic in the years following Cicero’s consulship (63 BCE) have enough similarities to entertain an interesting comparison. They are also different enough as to make the drawing of firm predictions specious. Nevertheless, there are shared factors that offer warning signs for today from the fall of the ancient republic.
AUKUS: Conroy's justification of the "greatest industrial undertaking" falls short
At a minimum Australians expect ministers in the Defence portfolio to display a basic knowledge of defence matters. The Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy’s address to the National Press Club is particularly worrying as justification for “the greatest industrial undertaking Australia has ever attempted”.
Australians need to know what lies beneath the new era of US-Australia strategic cooperation
Euphemistically, the Prime Minister recently announced that he and President Biden have “inaugurated a new era of US-Australia strategic cooperation”. Presumably he meant to say he’d found new ways to surrender Australia’s sovereignty.
West must acknowledge Israel’s rights are not untrammelled
Everyone’s talking points have in bold type - ‘Israel has the right to defend itself’. This simplistic American militarist jargon is treated as if there was an untrammelled right. International law hasn’t emerged to facilitate war, but to constrain it.
Climate policy: The widening reality gap
The global warming problem seems increasingly insoluble. The past record shows growing gaps between ambition and achievement, decreasing time in which to act, and governments, including Australia’s, stubbornly sticking to policies that have failed to stop emissions growth. Clues to the reasons behind this can be found in the Treasurer’s address to the Economic and Social Outlook Conference, Melbourne.
America: a wounded hegemon
Amid the pomp in Washington did the Australian Prime Minister sense the enormity of the moment? As he paid homage to the hegemon could he feel the facade crumbling to reveal America’s slipping power?
AUKUS: The greatest policy blunder
Recent speculation about the regulatory obstacles to the AUKUS agreement add to the Congressional concerns over the industrial base’s capacity to deliver the Virginia class submarines and meet to USN’s force level targets. Moreover, hanging over all of America’s foreign policy positions going forward is the faltering support for foreign adventures and the prospect of another isolationist-leaning Trump Administration abandoning ‘bad deals'. AUKUS remains bad policy.
Preparing for America's Gleichschaltung
2025 America won’t be like 1933 Germany and they won’t be wearing brownshirts. But the program of the reactionary forces in America is as radical as that of the interwar fascists. And they have a plan for taking over.
Illiberalism rising: Will a post-liberal America threaten the international order?
The intellectual space for revolutionary new thoughts accompanies social change and inevitably the revolution is a surprise and incomprehensible to elites when it comes. Social, economic, and political disruption is accelerating because of climate change, new advanced technologies, economic stress, and geopolitics. The space for revolutionary thought is growing.
Republicans push for Mexican-American war: Don't rule it out
One of the what-ifs that the Albanese government should be asking itself is; what would it mean if America invaded Mexico in 2025? If the leading Republican presidential candidates are to be taken at their word this is not a foolish question. Could anything have a greater impact on the foundations of Australia’s foreign and strategic policies?
The intergenerational report - a climate fairy tale
The future is already upon us. The forty-year Intergenerational Report (IGR) is a divertissement.
The AUKUS folly: Albanese and the US presidential election
There never was a chance of overturning the AUKUS folly at the Labor conference. As unpalatable as it might be, the only possibility of extracting Australia from America’s war planning now lies in the bizarre milieu of American politics. And it’s not forlorn.
Public service reform must be future focussed
Public service reform is back as are the old tropes of merit based appointments, frank and fearless advice, and better preparation and training for APS leaders. These legacy markers of public service excellence need a thorough rethink if tomorrow’s challenges are to be met.
Abandoned sovereignty: Australia's intelligence function colonised by US
That the Albanese government could further compromise Australia’s sovereignty, international integrity and national interests seemed inconceivable. Yet, intelligence, a vital government function inextricably connected with independence and protecting national interest, is being penetrated and colonised by the Americans.
AUKUS: A US device to lock Australia into the anti-China coalition
Around a week ago the Financial Review confirmed what many observers had taken for granted: the US offered nuclear propulsion technology to Australia under the AUKUS arrangements in order to lock it into the anti-China coalition.
Oh the weaponising: another symptom of decline
‘Weaponise’ is the word de jour in America. Aside from the crude partisan employment of the term by Trump and other American politicians, it has subtly found its way into mainstream publications. Such loaded terms corrupt analysis by imposing implicit judgements that obviate the need for serious thought. Once condemned for weaponising, it cannot then be conceded that the target of the accusation can have legitimate reasons for their actions.
The courage to end the Alliance
While not yet the majority view, a consensus is growing that the US alliance is no longer in Australia’s national interest and that the AUKUS partnership should be abandoned. The argument for distancing Australian foreign policy from that of America is strong in theory, but its practical implementation would be inordinately difficult and risky. That’s not to deny that greater independence is preferable, just that the scope of the policy challenge cannot be ignored.
The zealot, the disrupter, and the ideologue: America's presidential choices
Biden, Trump, or DeSantis; the zealot, the disrupter, or the ideologue are the choices confronting American voters. Individuals matter. Trump’s mercurial and transactional approach to foreign policy and his isolationist tendencies are well known. Back in the Whitehouse he would again be a disrupter, and perhaps worse. But an uncompromising Biden or empowered DeSantis present different threats.
The militarisation of space - can Australia avoid following America?
America’s space policy reveals its hegemonic obsession and the future quandaries for Australian policy. Even America’s approach to exploration and colonisation of the Moon is only comprehensible in terms of terrestrial geopolitics. It now expects the world to bow to its power in outer space.
Civil-military relations and the AUKUS debate: no public role for the military
Subordination of the military to the civil power in a democracy is non-negotiable, but is often taken for granted. More democracies falter because of a breakdown of civil-military relations than through external subversion or foreign aggression.
Will Australia always follow the innocent nation into war?
A war in East Asia provoked by American intransigence would be no less disastrous for Australia than one caused by China’s ambitions. While China’s intentions and plans are inaccessible and should generate prudent caution, the well-researched drivers of America’s strategic policy should also produce grave reservations within the Albanese government.
Postwar Ukraine will pose the hardest problems
Hopefully, behind the scenes, policymakers are well into postwar preparations for Ukraine. The conduct of the fighting naturally absorbs most attention in a war, but conflicts come to an end one way or another and often that’s when the hard issues emerge. Another Afghanistan or Iraq debacle must be avoided.
All over bar the shouting: the inevitability of a submarine farce
The AUKUS submarine fetish has colonised the minds of the Labor ministers and ejected practical commonsense.
AUKUS: time to talk about time and submarines
Scheduled for the 2040s, while the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines might never eventuate, the theatre surrounding the announcement provides a publicly-digestible narrative for the surrender of Northern Australia to the American military in the present day.
An AUKUS ménage à trois
As the government offers new hints at the ‘optimal path’ for the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines, the questions about the viability of the project mount. The political pressure to out-muscle the Coalition on ‘national security’, if that’s what is driving the Labor government’s enthusiasm for this impending car-crash, should not be allowed to undermine the national interest.
American values on show in Jerusalem
Under the shelter of the ‘shared values’ mantra the leaders of America and its vassal states like Australia find justification for militarisation and hegemony. Secretary of State Blinken’s comments in Jerusalem, while sharing a podium with the Israeli Prime Minister, have exposed the utter meaningless and hypocrisy of this formula.
Tanks for Ukraine won't bring peace negotiations and an end to the war closer
Supply of main battle tanks will commit the NATO allies and partners to the war in a way that makes their involvement irreversible and could be effectively the first major step toward a war with Russia.
All pathways to AUKUS submarines sub-optimal
It is difficult to reconcile the public documents and statements relating to the AUKUS nuclear-power submarine project. Unlike the usual procurement process the defence policy justification is opaque, the schedule and costs are unclear, and the implications for Australian industry vague.
Acquiring B-21s to attack Chinese Pacific bases ignores strategic reality
B-21s for Australia? Not on the basis of defending against a Chinese base in Australia’s nearer region. Defence policy often proceeds under a number of heroic and muddled assumptions. Most likely, the Defence Strategic Review (DSR) will also. These must be tested.
Post-liberal, post-democratic and authoritarian; is that America's future?
Australians see American politics as a traditional electoral contest between Democrats and Republicans, or progressives and conservatives. However, a more illiberal, intolerant, and authoritarian political faction is being forged and its presence is being felt in mainstream American politics.
America's shiny submarine lure reels in Australia's sovereignty
This year’s AUSMIN further advertised how the lure of submarines has facilitated the US military colonisation of Northern Australia. AUSMIN meetings are now performative art. The Australian side acts as though it has agency and the Americans pretend they aren’t just a resentful fading hegemon.
DeSantis’ ideology is clearer, darker and more coherent than Trump’s
DeSantis would likely deliver the next staggering blow to liberal democracy in America. He has made his ideology unambiguously clear, and it is darker and more coherent than Trump’s. America’s allies would be well served to monitor closely the political tides as the 2024 presidential election approaches.