Asia
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ISHAAN THAROOR. The lesson of Davos: – China has arrived (Washington Post 25 January 2019).
“Can we live in a world where America is still a strong power but doesn’t have the kind of primacy it had in the past?” asked Mahbubani. That’s a reality an “America First” administration is staunchly trying to resist. In Davos, though, it is a fait accompli. Continue reading »
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Arrested Diplomacy (Project Syndicate).
The Japanese and Canadian governments have failed to manage effectively the reputational, economic, and geopolitical implications of the legal cases against Nissan chairman Carlos Ghosn and Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou. And, in a globalized world, the risks posed by such cases are likely to grow. Continue reading »
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KISHORE MAHBUBANI. What China Threat? How the United States and China can avoid war. Harper Magazine 22 January 2019
Within about fifteen years, China’s economy will surpass America’s and become the largest in the world. As this moment approaches, meanwhile, a consensus has formed in Washington that China poses a significant threat to American interests and well-being. General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), has said that “China probably Continue reading »
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JOHN MENADUE. Corporate failure in Australia. They just don’t get it.
There is a growing and unfortunate litany of corporate failures in Australia – and not just the banks and energy suppliers. There is wage theft on a large scale. Instead of addressing their own obvious failures the BCA accuses its critics of business bashing and waging class war. As Warren Buffett put it ‘there is Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. China needs a grown-up foreign policy for a changed era.
At the key 19th Party Congress in October 2017, Xi Jinping set out his signature policy – Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era – which, unusually early on in his term, was inscribed into the Party’s Constitution as Xi Jinping “Thought”. Socialism with Chinese Characters was Deng’s contribution to the Party’s corpus. Xi Continue reading »
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DUNCAN GRAHAM When sinking looms, jump.
Imagine if almost six per cent of the Coalition reckoned they’d lose their seats at the next election so switch to Labor. Chances are they wouldn’t be piped aboard, as ship jumpers are not favoured in Australian politics, distrusted by the party they betrayed and the one where they seek to stowaway. Continue reading »
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MICHAEL McKINLEY. The unsettling reality if Five Eyes is the guardian against Huawei, Part 2: A survey audit concerning prudence, integrity, law and ethics.
In the frequent denunciations of Huawei and ZTE the inference is that these Chinese corporations are existing, or potential espionage agents of the Beijing Government and a threat to all who have been foolish enough to acquire their products. These threats, moreover, are held to be of a type that are politically, legally and ethically Continue reading »
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MICHAEL McKINLEY. The unsettling reality if Five Eyes is the guardian against Huawei, Part 1: Questions of Honesty and Loyalty.
According to a recent assessment Australia is the world’s 11th most vulnerable country in terms of its exposure to internet security threat. This is the general case. The particular case, articulated by the Five Eyes signals intelligence agencies, is that China is to be feared the most because Huawei, the world’s largest manufacturer of telecommunications equipment, and ZTE, Continue reading »
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HUGH WHITE. The Costs of Containing China (East Asia Forum)
Washington’s policymakers at last understand that China is a serious strategic rival. For the first time since the Soviet collapse, they recognise that a major country is trying to expand its power and influence at the expense of US global leadership. Continue reading »
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CLIVE KESSLER. Mahathir’s deep dilemma for 2019 (ASIAN NIKKEI REVIEW).
Can he win over the dominant ethnic Malays and halt the growth of Islamist forces? Continue reading »
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CLIVE KESSLER. New hopes or old fears for Malaysia?
Against the odds, and against most informed predictions, Malaysia’s 14th general elections in May 2018 produced a change of government. The Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition under Najib Razak, which had been in power since 1957, was ousted by the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) consortium led by Mahathir Mohamad, a now second-time prime minister. What had long Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Xi Jinping’s Year of Living Dangerously.
2018 may well go down as a defining year for President Xi Jinping’s leadership – one that marks the beginning of the end for the “President for Life”. President Xi began the year in full command of the country, seemingly ascendant on the world stage with his signature Belt and Road Initiative and, in the Continue reading »
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ANDREW FARRAN. Brexit – Putting off the inevitable
The British Government is in total disarray, thrashing about for a way to minimise public outrage when the country crashes out of the EU without a deal on 29 March, which now appears inevitable. Its energies are now being devoted to planning for that catastrophe. What is remarkable is how little understanding its Ministers and Continue reading »
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Hugh White: The New East Asian Jigsaw (The Straits Times (Singapore), Caixin Global (Beijing), 18.12.2018)
If 2018 was the year of unscrambling, the next year will offer a clearer picture of how the U.S.-China power struggle has reshaped the region, with Taiwan being a potential flashpoint In 2018 all the big pieces in the East Asian international order were thrown up in the air. The U.S.-China economic relationship was transformed Continue reading »
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DUNCAN GRAHAM. ASEAN: Wethers, not rams.
Half a century ago five neighbouring nations got together with a set of fine ideals. These included boosting economic growth, promoting peace and lifting living standards. That was the excuse. The real purpose was to block the spread of Communism, now a spent force outside China and satellites like North Korea. So why keep the Continue reading »
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Favourable currents for ASEAN–China relations in the South China Sea (East Asia Forum, 12 December 2018)
Despite increased friction between the United States and China, on balance, positive developments in the South China Sea outweighed negative ones this year. Continue reading »
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JEFFREY D. SACHS. The War on Huawei (Project Syndicate, 11.12.18)
The Trump administration’s conflict with China has little to do with US external imbalances, closed Chinese markets, or even China’s alleged theft of intellectual property. It has everything to do with containing China by limiting its access to foreign markets, advanced technologies, global banking services, and perhaps even US universities. Continue reading »
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JACOB GREBER. Why Former Australian Leader Believes China is About to Outflank Trump on Trade (CAIXIN GLOBAL/AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW)
(AFR) — China could be preparing to spring a global compact to drive tariffs to zero, and approach Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) members including Australia for access to the grouping, positioning Beijing as a champion for free trade. That’s the view of former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who believes China’s President Xi Jinping may even use Continue reading »
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ANTHONY PUN. A winter of China panic followed by a spring thawing of Australia-China relations – a view from the Chinese Australian community.
A chronological sequence of the post-winter China panic with the spring thawing of Australia-China relations is presented. Media reports showed a definite attempt to improve Australia-China relations with commitments by PM Morrison, Foreign Minister Marise Payne and former PM Howard. How well can Australia play in the game in making friends with two countries which Continue reading »
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HAMISH MCDONALD. Christian Missionaries and Their Mistaken Message from God (AsianSentinel, 05.12.18)
As fans of the old The Phantom comic strip will recall, an island in the Bay of Bengal is the location of the Skull Cave, home base of The Ghost Who Walks, established by an ancestor washed ashore in a “half-drowned” state after an attack by “Singh pirates” and nurtured back to life by the Continue reading »
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CHRIS BURGESS. Genuine immigration reform still alien to Japan.
On 14 October 2018, a number of marches were held across Japan to mark what the organiser — the Japan First Party — labelled ‘anti-migrant day’. The target of the protestors’ wrath was the government’s proposal to revise the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act to introduce two new types of residence status for foreign Continue reading »
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KIM WINGEREI. The Italy of Asia.
Assuming that come May next year Australia will have had its 7th Prime Minister in ten years, it puts us on par with Italy – the erstwhile lead exponent of revolving door politics. Despite being the fourth most populous country in Europe, Italy is also the perennial underachiever on everything from economic growth to political Continue reading »
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MARK BEESON. China’s Rise and the rules-based liberal order: Implications for Australia
The prosperity of millions of Australians has become dependent on the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This unambiguous material reality explains why Australian policymakers and commentators spend so much time fretting about how to manage the relationship. The sheer material importance of the Chinese economy to Australia means that policymakers in this country have no Continue reading »
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EAST ASIA FORUM-Preparing for the Next US Recession
One thing was clear from this weekend’s G20 summit. Asia and the world face many risks, and most of them emanate from the United States of America. Continue reading »
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JOCELYN CHEY. Xi Jinping V. Allah
Protests are growing around the world over the forced detention and “re-education” of the Muslim Uighurs in China’s far west Xinjiang Province. It is important to frame our response in terms of our commitment to the protection of civil and political rights. The Uighurs are not terrorists as Beijing propaganda has painted them. Continue reading »
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MACK WILLIAMS. North Korea: second fiddle?
Not surprisingly North Korea was relegated by the US:China “tariff war” in the recent G20 summit in Buenos Aires but some progress may have been made in preparing for the next phases of US:DPRK and ROK:DPRK dialogues. China also made clear the linkage between its trade disputes with the US and the extent of their Continue reading »
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RICHARD BUTLER. Ethics Etherised
Based on the facts of his conduct of his office, and there is clearly much more to emerge, the end of Trump should be in sight. But, this is not certain to be achieved. To an unprecedented degree, the President of the US is enmired in illegal conduct and is directing US external relations disastrously. Continue reading »
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RICHARD WOOLCOTT. The emergence of China can not be denied.
The recent APEC meeting in Port Moresby underlined the deepening competition between China and the United States in the Asia Pacific region. China has been expanding its influence in the South China Sea and beyond and with the United States,Japan,and regrettably Australia consulting on how it can check China’s expansion. Continue reading »
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IAN BURNET. ‘Friends in Australia’ – a message from Sutan Sjahir, the Prime Minister of the newly declared Republic of Indonesia, November 1945.
On 17 August 1945 and two days after the Japanese surrender, Soekarno and Hatta unilaterally declared Indonesia’s Independence and became the first President and Vice President of the Republic of Indonesia. Continue reading »
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Sino-U.S. clash is a great power competition, not ‘Cold War II’ (The Japan Times)
CHINA – In the Trump administration’s most substantial foreign policy speech thus far, delivered at the Hudson Institute on Oct. 4, Vice President Mike Pence accused China of a “whole-of-government” attack on U.S. interests and vowed the United States will respond with robust countermeasures. Continue reading »