Asia
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Scott Morrison voted off the Pacific islands
The Great White Father has arrived the far flung atolls of the Pacific. And, like the missionaries before him Scott Morrison is delivering the bringing of the light — a gospel of hope and salvation. Well, up to a point. Boiled down, his message is that if they are worried about the rising waters, they Continue reading »
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Our China Threat is based on a fundamental error (Australian Financial Review, 19 August 2019)
Andrew Hastie’s intervention on the China Threat helpfully highlights the extent to which Australia’s intelligence, security and defence establishment (ISDE) is running Australia’s China foreign policy. In stark language he has laid out many of the assumptions that underly the supposed Threat. Contrary to the Prime Minister’s assertion, as Chair of the Parliamentary Joint Committee Continue reading »
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Things haven’t been this bad between Australia and China in 30 years (Crikey, 14 August 2019)
The Morrison government’s increasing ties to the Trump administration is, by consequence, achieving quite the opposite of its previous goal of “resetting” Australia’s relationship with China. Continue reading »
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GREGG BRAZINSKY. How Japan’s failure to atone for past sins threatens the global economy (The Washington Post 11-8-19)
Escalating trade tensions could roil global tech market Continue reading »
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Hong Kong and Londonderry and the global crowding of everything
The uproar in Hong Kong has become very serious, with a situation as developed in 1989 before Tiananmen: of leaders unable to cope and an uprising implacable in resolve and unable to focus on achievable objectives. The comparison should not be overdrawn but Hong Kong now is threatening greater consequence than did Tiananmen. Tactically the Continue reading »
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Morrison prepares for war
Scott Morrison is not too keen on history.When it comes to politics – or at least the politics of the Liberal Party, which to him is all that matters – history began with his election as Prime Minister. Everything that happened before then, and especially in the three years before then, is utterly irrelevant – Continue reading »
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All hail, Queen Mega
This week Indonesian streets are bursting with red and white bunting, celebrating the late leader Soekarno’s proclamation of independence from the Netherlands on 17 August 1945. Then followed a four- year protracted guerilla war against the stubborn Dutch who couldn’t sniff the stench of post-war rotting colonialism. After an estimated 150,000 deaths, the majority civilians, Continue reading »
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Let Hong Kong people decide their own fate with China
If we want to see Hong Kong survive the One Country Two System and retain its form of democracy, then we must not interfere with their process. External influence and funding have been reported but these activities only serve to aggravate the crisis to a point of no return where the PLA may appear in Continue reading »
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RAYMOND ZHONG. Vietnam is gathering the spoils of a trade war (The New York Times International)
No country on earth has benefited from President Trump’s trade fight with China more than Vietnam. Continue reading »
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HOWARD FRENCH. US at war with itself over China (World Politics Review, 31 July 2019)
America’s foreign policy establishment is at war with itself over the shape of the country’s approach toward a steadily rising China. For now, it is only an epistolary war. But as the debate deepens, its outcome will go far toward deciding how the United States responds to its most serious global rival for economic and Continue reading »
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CINDY YU. Is China Really the Enemy (The Spectator)
China is a nation with values deeply at odds with the West. Continue reading »
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JAMES LAURENCESON. The efficacy of being very vocal: Australia and human rights in China (ACRI)
Last week’s news that the Australian Dr Yang Hengjun was being moved to a criminal facility in China was, to use Foreign Minister Marise Payne’s words, “deeply disappointing” to say the least. Continue reading »
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GREGORY CLARK. China: A Maritime expansionist?
The call is for Australia to cooperate with the US to counter Beijing’s allegedly expansionist activities in the South China Sea. But was it not the US itself, in its 1951 San Francisco peace treaty with Japan – signed and ratified by Canberra and 47 others – who in effect gifted most of the South Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Where is Hong Kong going?
Current protests, including violence, present difficult decisions for the PRC and for Xi Jin Ping. The Hong Kong Government does not seem to be able to control things so what will Beijing do? No option provides a simple solution. Continue reading »
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CHAULA RININTA ANINDYA. Should Indonesia accept Islamic State returnees? (East Asia Forum)
Indonesian former members of the so-called Islamic State (IS) stuck in Syria are now under the media spotlight. Many of them live in poor conditions, are struggling to make ends meet, expressing remorse for joining IS and pleading for the Indonesian government to repatriate them. The issue of how to handle them is now stirring Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Xi Jinping: much more than just one man (The Interpreter, Lowy Institute, 16 July 2019)
Book Review: Xi Jinping: The Backlash by Richard McGregor (Penguin, Lowy Institute, 2019) Richard McGregor has written a dazzling account of the first six years of the Xi Jinping era and what he sees as the “backlash” to Xi’s increasing authoritarianism domestically and assertive foreign and defence policies. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. The Problem with China’s Soft Power: It doesn’t have any( AFR 17 July 2017)
Last week the US Pace Gallery announced it was closing its flagship contemporary art gallery in the famous 798 art space and expanding at home. Also last week, police squads and bulldozers moved in to demolish several more of Beijing’s spontaneously formed art villages. Continue reading »
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Trump’s strategic incoherence on India policy Part 2
In an editorial to mark Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent visit, The Times of India alluded to US policy incoherence in urging Washington to make up its mind between dealing with India as an ally or a frenemy. Earlier, in February Washington broke from its traditional non-committal stance on India–Pakistan skirmishes to side openly with India’s narrative on Continue reading »
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HUGH WHITE. Australia needs to give up its South Pacific dream (AFR 13-14.7.2019)
What can Australia do to restore and preserve our sphere of influence in the South Pacific, and deny it to China? Continue reading »
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HUGH WHITE. Why Pacific nations would host a Chinese military base (AFR 13-14.7.2019)
Our neighbours’ commitment to values and interests shared with Australia might prove feeble in the face of Chinese persuasion. Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Canada, Australia and the USA
Canada tries to differentiate itself from the USA but because of its proximity and similarities this is not easy. Australia has the opposite problem: we try to find similarities. Canada’s geography makes it easier for it to defy requests to get involved in US wars but Australia has the opposite problem. We have to shout Continue reading »
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KERRY BROWN. Whither ‘one country, two systems’? (East Asia Forum)
If reportedly a quarter of the population of the country or city where you live go out on the streets to demonstrate, there is a serious problem. We can quibble about whether it was indeed two million that demonstrated in Hong Kong on Sunday 16 June, or a half of that or less. But for Continue reading »
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LEONID PETROV. “Love the North Korean Style: Alek Sigley’s Misfortune is a Coded Message”
Alek Sigley was expelled from North Korea for using the Internet Last weekend the world was baffled by the statement of the (North) Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) which explained why Alek Sigley, the Australian student who had studied at the Kim Il-sung University in Pyongyang, was detained, investigated and expelled. Nobody, including seasoned North Korea watchers, could make sense of this brief but eloquent statement that became viral among Western media even before it appeared on the KCNA official Continue reading »
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CAI FANG. A trade war will only hasten China’s structural reforms (East Asia Forum)
On 22 March 2018, the United States, invoking Section 301 of the Trade Act, increased tariffs on imported goods from China. Since then, the trade war has severely harmed both the Chinese and US economies. Yet despite 11 rounds of high-level negotiations between the two sides, the Trump administration has continued to escalate the trade Continue reading »
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GEETA PANDEY. Indian MP Mahua Moitra’s ‘rising fascism’ speech wins plaudits (BBC News)
A spirited turn at the mic by a first-time female MP in India’s parliament, in which she listed the “signs of early fascism”, has been hailed as the “speech of the year” on social media. Continue reading »
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ALLAN PATIENCE and GARRY WOODARD. Morrison as a middle power statesman?
In attempting to predict how Scott Morrison will develop as a foreign policy Prime Minister, the obstacles in his way should first be noted. While his potential authority within the party room is considerable, he lacks the foreign policy experience of previous Prime Ministers such as Menzies, Whitlam, Hawke and Rudd. Continue reading »
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China is not an enemy (Washington Post letter, 3 July 2019)
Dear President Trump and members of Congress: We are members of the scholarly, foreign policy, military and business communities, overwhelmingly from the United States, including many who have focused on Asia throughout our professional careers. We are deeply concerned about the growing deterioration in U.S. relations with China, which we believe does not serve American Continue reading »
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TREVOR WATSON. Crossing a line in the Korean sand; Trump goes where others have been before
Donald Trump’s crossing of the 38th Parallel into North Korea was a ten out of ten for symbolism. It was wonderful television and an outstanding PR move by the US President and the North Korean Leader, Kim Jun Un. The event took me back almost 30 years to my own crossing of the famous ceasefire Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER: Trump in North Asia; policy changes?
A lot of the reactions to President Trump’s visits to the G20 in Osaka and to Korea have been scathing, but there are some positive signs in regard to both US-China trade issues and negotiations with North Korea. But having encouraged hard-line one-dimensional attitudes on both issues within the US, Trump may find that maintaining Continue reading »
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NARGES BAJOGHLI. Trump’s Iran strategy will fail (New York Times, 2 July 2019).
As tensions with Tehran escalate, Washington has been struggling to understand the internal thinking of the Iranian government, and especially that of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The organization, which functions as an elite military branch and a bulwark of the country’s revolution, is today the most powerful force within Iran’s complicated political structure. Understand Continue reading »