Asia
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China and the New World Order. China–USA Part 2
Westerners may believe that the growing integration and interdependence of China with the regional and international economy makes armed conflict too costly to contemplate and that the Pacific military balance is so heavily in US favour that China would not be foolish enough to challenge Washington. But what if Beijing believes that the costs to Continue reading »
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China and World Order: Navigating the Thucydides and Kindleberger Traps Part 1
There have been two big geopolitical storylines thus far in this century: the US has suffered a relative decline from its dominant position at the end of the Cold War; and China has acquired impressive power in both relative and absolute terms. How China develops economically and evolves politically, and how it behaves domestically, regionally Continue reading »
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NICK BISLEY. The risks of a new Cold War between the US and China are real: here’s why (the Conversation, 26.08.18)
Donald Trump is making good on his trade war rhetoric with China, announcing tariffs on a further US$200 billion worth of goods from the PRC. As China promises retaliation, the warmth of the Mar-a-Lago summit of April 2017 is a thing of the past. When this is added to the wide-ranging tensions such as the Continue reading »
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Denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula: Explaining the Stalemate
With the conclusion of the third inter-Korean summit last week, the next challenge will be to find common understanding. Continue reading »
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NILE BOWIE. Mahathir has an Islam problem.
New premier wants Malaysia’s brand of Islam to reflect mercy, justice and compassion, a stance his conservative opponents have seized on as too soft and lenient. Continue reading »
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ANATLOE KALETSKY. The US Will Lose Its Trade War with China.
In handicapping the US-China conflict, Keynesian demand management is a better guide than comparative advantage. In principle, China can avoid any damage at all from US tariffs simply by responding with a full-scale Keynesian stimulus. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. The Moon-Kim Summit—what did it do, what did it amount to?
The Moon-Kim Summit in North Korea made some modest but significant achievements. The two leaders seemed surprisingly at ease with each other. How the meeting is assessed depends very much on the mind-set of the assessor, and what it achieves will depend very much on what the principals really want. Continue reading »
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DAVID DODWELL. Keep Calm and carry on amid the current state of the trade war, for time is on China’s side. (South China Morning Post 16.9.2018)
Over the weekend, Donald Trump’s trade team invited Beijing to fresh trade talks. Almost simultaneously, tweets from the White House cast doubt on the talks. Is this “good cop, bad cop” tactics? Or routine erratic signalling? How is one to respond, given how much the world economy is at stake? Having mulled this conundrum carefully Continue reading »
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WANNING SUN. Blind Spots in Australia’s Soft Power Strategies.
Blessed with an enviable healthy and relaxed lifestyle, beautiful landscape, and clean environment, Australia has rich soft power assets and resources. Yet, more than ever before, Australia faces unprecedented challenges in its soft power efforts. The China factor cannot be ignored, even when we are considering Australia’s soft power initiatives in places other than China. Continue reading »
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JOSEPH NYE. The two sides of American exceptionalism (Project Syndicate, 5.09.18)
In July, I joined 43 other scholars of international relations in paying for a newspaper advertisement arguing that the US should preserve the current international order. The institutions that make up this order have contributed to “unprecedented levels of prosperity and the longest period in modern history without war between major powers. US leadership helped Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Prometheus bound: How China’s power is constrained
The more Australia positions itself as if there is only a binary choice between US or Chinese hegemonic influence in the region, the more likely conflict becomes. Continue reading »
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PETER JANSSEN. Wealth gap remains under Thai junta rule.
PM Prayut Chan-ocha vowed to tackle the kingdom’s politicized income inequality but has failed to pass a redistributive land tax that would hit elite holdings Continue reading »
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MICHAEL KELLY SJ. Religious Persecution and Home Churches in China.
When will they ever learn? The best tonic to stir up religious fervor and greater commitment in a totalitarian society is to persecute believers. Continue reading »
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VIPS STEERING GROUP. Trump should involve himself in worsening Syria crisis
Respected US public interest group Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) has issued a public warning that uncontrolled escalation of the final battle for Idlib in Syria is worsening the risk of direct US-Russian military clash there. They appeal to Trump to seek better advice and to get involved. Continue reading »
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HUMPHREY HAWKSLEY. US-led Indo-Pacific alliance against China is an outdated idea (Nikkei Asian Review, 03.09.18)
Asia should avoid being divided by Sino-American rivalry. Continue reading »
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CLIVE HAMILTON. None So Blind As Those Who Will Not See
Jocelyn Chey has a bee in her bonnet. In a series of articles on this blog she has repeatedly characterised my book, Silent Invasion: China’s Influence in Australia, as anti-Chinese. In her latest attack, she claims that I engage in racial profiling, lump all Chinese-Australians together and feed into anti-Asian propaganda. Continue reading »
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WANNING SUN. Reasons aplenty for China’s ban of the ABC.
As a form of symbolism, banning a website works much more effectively than conventional expressions of official displeasure such as flexing military muscles, cancelling a trade deal, recalling a country’s ambassador or refusing a foreign correspondent’s visa. Continue reading »
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RAMESH THAKUR. India’s VIP culture: Forget Lincoln’s definition of democracy. India’s government is of VIPs, by VIPs and for VIPs (Times of India, 04.090.18)
Last week, the Madras high court ordered the National Highways Authority of India to separate ordinary citizens from VIPs at toll gates, with a dedicated lane for the latter. Of course, high court judges are included in the list of VIPs. The court held it to be ‘disheartening’ and ‘very unfortunate’ that judges are ‘compelled Continue reading »
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JOCELYN CHEY. Chung Kuo, Cina: Déjà Vu.
The ABC has been off-line in China since 22 August and press reports speculate that the Chinese ban is retaliation for Canberra’s decision on foreign investment in the telecommunication industry, which effectively bars China’s telecom giant Huawei from participating in the roll-out of our 5G network. Chinese media did indeed call Canberra’s move (announced during Continue reading »
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WILLIAM CASE. UMNO’s ethnoreligious order is not gone — just waiting.
Malaysia’s new Pakatan Harapan government rode to power on a pledge to clean up Malaysia’s foul politics. It was wise to focus on the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional’s transgressions: Pakatan’s appeal lay less in its own glowing imagery and manifesto than in the electorate’s widespread contempt for the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), which leads the Continue reading »
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DUNCAN GRAHAM. A done deal – or a deal not yet done?
Trying to do business in Java on a Friday is seldom a good idea. The chantings that Prime Minister Scott Morrison heard mid-morning last Friday were not part of the standard welcome to overseas VIPs, but calling the faithful to prayer. That included Indonesian President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo, much of his Cabinet and most senior Continue reading »
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MICHAEL SAINSBURY. Payne can give proper attention to Asia that Bishop failed to do- (Crikey)
Australia’s new Foreign Minister Marise Payne has plenty to learn from Julie Bishop’s significant missteps — and indeed non-steps — in the same role. Continue reading »
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ANTHONY PUN. How do the Chinese settlers in Australia feel regarding the deepening dispute between China and Australia?
The “China Panic”, a phrase coined by Professor Bob Carr, ex-Australian Foreign Minister and Director of Australian China Relations Institute (ACRI), started in December 2016 when the media and the Turnbull government started to “bash” China starting with a media blitz about Chinese political donations to political parties and alleging breach of parliamentary sovereignty and Continue reading »
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E. TAMMY KIM. Moon Over Korea (New York Review of Books 16.08.18 Issue)
Moon Jae-in eui Unmyeong [The Destiny of Moon Jae-in] by Moon Jae-in Seoul: Bookpal, 488 pp., ₩15,000 In Singapore on June 12, as Donald Trump vigorously shook hands with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, the man behind this improbable meeting leaned forward in his chair and smiled. South Korean president Moon Jae-in, just thirteen months into Continue reading »
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MICHAEL KELLY. A journey with urban refugees in Bangkok.
Some days I feel like a people trafficker, though I’m not making a zack out of the trafficking. Other days I see myself as a latter-day Oskar Schindler. But mostly I just feel trapped along with the 1000 refugees and asylum seekers I’m doing my not-very-successful best to get the hell out of an open Continue reading »
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JAMES KYNGE. The US cannot halt China’s march to global tech supremacy.
The moment may one day be glorified in propaganda art. As the mist rolled off the Yangtze River, Xi Jinping stood on top of the Three Gorges hydropower dam in Yichang, a proud symbol of engineering prowess, and proclaimed that China would blaze its own trail to become a technology superpower. Continue reading »
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DAVID HUTT. Does China really dominate Southeast Asia?
Widespread reports of China’s hegemony over the neighbouring region miss the nuance of fast-shifting political and strategic dynamics. Continue reading »
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IAN BUCKLEY.Historical Light on Current Aims to Attack Iran
This article highlights the vitally important role played by former US intelligence officers to prevent ongoing illegal regime changes across the world, presently Iran. Then, to better understand current examples, it explores their historical origins, consequences and possible remedies aimed at prevention. Continue reading »
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FENG ZHAUKUI. Joining B&R can open up new opportunities for Japan.
Recently, more and more Japanese companies have taken actions that show their positive attitude about participating in the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative, and Japanese leaders have also made some positive gestures. Continue reading »
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TIM LINDSEY. Jokowi’s deputy pick confirms rise of conservative Islam in Indonesia
The selection of the controversial and highly conservative head of the Indonesian Ulama Council as Jokowi’s vice presidential running mate is disturbing. It reveals Jokowi’s lack of political authority and is yet another demonstration of increasing intolerance among Indonesian Muslims. Continue reading »