Asia
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PATRICK JORY. Explaining a Thai royal’s aborted electoral debut (East Asia Forum).
On 8 February 2019, Thai Raksa Chart (a Thai political party aligned with exiled, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra) made the bombshell announcement that it was nominating King Vajiralongkorn’s elder sister, Ubolratana, as its candidate for prime minister. Late that same night, the King issued a royal command, almost as explosive, effectively forbidding the nomination. Continue reading »
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MOBO GAO. The Chinese United Front Strategy: Its History and Present.
Amidst the fear of political interference of the Chinese government there is often a reference to one organ of the Chinese State, i.e., the United Front (UF). In some Australian news stories about the China, UF is sometimes dangled to the unsuspecting Australian public as an all-purpose threat in the same way the Red under Continue reading »
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HUGH WHITE. The US shouldn’t go to war with China over Taiwan—and nor should Australia (ASPI: THE STRATEGIST, 13 Feb 2019)
Paul Dibb, in his recent Strategist post, writes that America’s strategic position in Asia would be fatally undermined if it didn’t go to war with China if China attacked Taiwan, and that Australia’s alliance with America would be fatally undermined if we didn’t then go to war with China too. The conclusion he draws is that, in the Continue reading »
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CHRISTIAN SORACE. From the Outside Looking In: A Response to John Garnaut’s Primer on Ideology (Made in China, 7.2.2019)
An introduction by Mobo Gao, Chair of Chinese Studies, Department of Asian Studies, University of Adelaide. The article below is a response by Christian Solace, an American academic, to a speech given at an internal Australian government seminar in August 2017 by the respected Australian journalist John Garnaut who was once an advisor to a former Continue reading »
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SHEILA A. SMITH. US policy in Asia heads from bad to worse.
If the past year is any indication of the year ahead, US policy in Asia will be erratic and self-serving. The beginnings of an Indo-Pacific strategy notwithstanding, the Trump administration continues to work out its issues with countries in the region bilaterally and sporadically. Continue reading »
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ANTHONY PUN. A relapse of China panic.
Three media reports in the Sydney Morning Herald could be seen as a “Relapse of the China Panic” since it went into remission last December. It came in a period where Chinese Australians celebrate the Lunar New Year and indeed some would say what a “bloody new year” present (a pun – Red packets are Continue reading »
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MACK WILLIAMS : Chinese view of Second Trump:Kim Summit
Given the key role which President Xi has played in the negotiating process between President Trump and Chairman Kim a recent analysis in the Global Times (published by the People’s Daily) provides some valuable Chinese insights into the prospects for the Second Summit. Continue reading »
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ELENA COLLINSON. What A Labor Victory Might Mean For Australian Foreign Policy (Council on Foreign Relations).
A federal election is due this year in Australia. While the Liberal-National Coalition government has yet to formally announce a polling day, the stage has effectively been set for a May election. According to Australian law, May 18 is the latest possible date a federal election could be called. The opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) Continue reading »
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WANNING SUN AND HAIQING YU. WeChat, the Federal Election, and the Danger of Insinuative Journalism
A story appeared recently in The Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) with an eye-catching title: ‘Warning WeChat could spread Chinese propaganda during federal election’. By linking Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda with a forthcoming Australian election, the story draws heavily on views from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and represents a new and dangerous development in Continue reading »
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ISHAAN THAROOR. The lesson of Davos: – China has arrived (Washington Post 25 January 2019).
“Can we live in a world where America is still a strong power but doesn’t have the kind of primacy it had in the past?” asked Mahbubani. That’s a reality an “America First” administration is staunchly trying to resist. In Davos, though, it is a fait accompli. Continue reading »
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Arrested Diplomacy (Project Syndicate).
The Japanese and Canadian governments have failed to manage effectively the reputational, economic, and geopolitical implications of the legal cases against Nissan chairman Carlos Ghosn and Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou. And, in a globalized world, the risks posed by such cases are likely to grow. Continue reading »
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KISHORE MAHBUBANI. What China Threat? How the United States and China can avoid war. Harper Magazine 22 January 2019
Within about fifteen years, China’s economy will surpass America’s and become the largest in the world. As this moment approaches, meanwhile, a consensus has formed in Washington that China poses a significant threat to American interests and well-being. General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), has said that “China probably Continue reading »
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JOHN MENADUE. Corporate failure in Australia. They just don’t get it.
There is a growing and unfortunate litany of corporate failures in Australia – and not just the banks and energy suppliers. There is wage theft on a large scale. Instead of addressing their own obvious failures the BCA accuses its critics of business bashing and waging class war. As Warren Buffett put it ‘there is Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. China needs a grown-up foreign policy for a changed era.
At the key 19th Party Congress in October 2017, Xi Jinping set out his signature policy – Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era – which, unusually early on in his term, was inscribed into the Party’s Constitution as Xi Jinping “Thought”. Socialism with Chinese Characters was Deng’s contribution to the Party’s corpus. Xi Continue reading »
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DUNCAN GRAHAM When sinking looms, jump.
Imagine if almost six per cent of the Coalition reckoned they’d lose their seats at the next election so switch to Labor. Chances are they wouldn’t be piped aboard, as ship jumpers are not favoured in Australian politics, distrusted by the party they betrayed and the one where they seek to stowaway. Continue reading »
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MICHAEL McKINLEY. The unsettling reality if Five Eyes is the guardian against Huawei, Part 2: A survey audit concerning prudence, integrity, law and ethics.
In the frequent denunciations of Huawei and ZTE the inference is that these Chinese corporations are existing, or potential espionage agents of the Beijing Government and a threat to all who have been foolish enough to acquire their products. These threats, moreover, are held to be of a type that are politically, legally and ethically Continue reading »
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MICHAEL McKINLEY. The unsettling reality if Five Eyes is the guardian against Huawei, Part 1: Questions of Honesty and Loyalty.
According to a recent assessment Australia is the world’s 11th most vulnerable country in terms of its exposure to internet security threat. This is the general case. The particular case, articulated by the Five Eyes signals intelligence agencies, is that China is to be feared the most because Huawei, the world’s largest manufacturer of telecommunications equipment, and ZTE, Continue reading »
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HUGH WHITE. The Costs of Containing China (East Asia Forum)
Washington’s policymakers at last understand that China is a serious strategic rival. For the first time since the Soviet collapse, they recognise that a major country is trying to expand its power and influence at the expense of US global leadership. Continue reading »
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CLIVE KESSLER. Mahathir’s deep dilemma for 2019 (ASIAN NIKKEI REVIEW).
Can he win over the dominant ethnic Malays and halt the growth of Islamist forces? Continue reading »
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CLIVE KESSLER. New hopes or old fears for Malaysia?
Against the odds, and against most informed predictions, Malaysia’s 14th general elections in May 2018 produced a change of government. The Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition under Najib Razak, which had been in power since 1957, was ousted by the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) consortium led by Mahathir Mohamad, a now second-time prime minister. What had long Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. Xi Jinping’s Year of Living Dangerously.
2018 may well go down as a defining year for President Xi Jinping’s leadership – one that marks the beginning of the end for the “President for Life”. President Xi began the year in full command of the country, seemingly ascendant on the world stage with his signature Belt and Road Initiative and, in the Continue reading »
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ANDREW FARRAN. Brexit – Putting off the inevitable
The British Government is in total disarray, thrashing about for a way to minimise public outrage when the country crashes out of the EU without a deal on 29 March, which now appears inevitable. Its energies are now being devoted to planning for that catastrophe. What is remarkable is how little understanding its Ministers and Continue reading »
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Hugh White: The New East Asian Jigsaw (The Straits Times (Singapore), Caixin Global (Beijing), 18.12.2018)
If 2018 was the year of unscrambling, the next year will offer a clearer picture of how the U.S.-China power struggle has reshaped the region, with Taiwan being a potential flashpoint In 2018 all the big pieces in the East Asian international order were thrown up in the air. The U.S.-China economic relationship was transformed Continue reading »
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DUNCAN GRAHAM. ASEAN: Wethers, not rams.
Half a century ago five neighbouring nations got together with a set of fine ideals. These included boosting economic growth, promoting peace and lifting living standards. That was the excuse. The real purpose was to block the spread of Communism, now a spent force outside China and satellites like North Korea. So why keep the Continue reading »
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Favourable currents for ASEAN–China relations in the South China Sea (East Asia Forum, 12 December 2018)
Despite increased friction between the United States and China, on balance, positive developments in the South China Sea outweighed negative ones this year. Continue reading »
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JEFFREY D. SACHS. The War on Huawei (Project Syndicate, 11.12.18)
The Trump administration’s conflict with China has little to do with US external imbalances, closed Chinese markets, or even China’s alleged theft of intellectual property. It has everything to do with containing China by limiting its access to foreign markets, advanced technologies, global banking services, and perhaps even US universities. Continue reading »
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JACOB GREBER. Why Former Australian Leader Believes China is About to Outflank Trump on Trade (CAIXIN GLOBAL/AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW)
(AFR) — China could be preparing to spring a global compact to drive tariffs to zero, and approach Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) members including Australia for access to the grouping, positioning Beijing as a champion for free trade. That’s the view of former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who believes China’s President Xi Jinping may even use Continue reading »
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ANTHONY PUN. A winter of China panic followed by a spring thawing of Australia-China relations – a view from the Chinese Australian community.
A chronological sequence of the post-winter China panic with the spring thawing of Australia-China relations is presented. Media reports showed a definite attempt to improve Australia-China relations with commitments by PM Morrison, Foreign Minister Marise Payne and former PM Howard. How well can Australia play in the game in making friends with two countries which Continue reading »
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HAMISH MCDONALD. Christian Missionaries and Their Mistaken Message from God (AsianSentinel, 05.12.18)
As fans of the old The Phantom comic strip will recall, an island in the Bay of Bengal is the location of the Skull Cave, home base of The Ghost Who Walks, established by an ancestor washed ashore in a “half-drowned” state after an attack by “Singh pirates” and nurtured back to life by the Continue reading »
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CHRIS BURGESS. Genuine immigration reform still alien to Japan.
On 14 October 2018, a number of marches were held across Japan to mark what the organiser — the Japan First Party — labelled ‘anti-migrant day’. The target of the protestors’ wrath was the government’s proposal to revise the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act to introduce two new types of residence status for foreign Continue reading »