Asia
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JIEH-YUNG LO. Morrison attempts his own Australia-China reset.
When you see a Prime Minister wonder into a marginal seat, you know a federal election is on the horizon. Scott Morrison did just that at the start of this month when he joined local member David Coleman in the ultra marginal seat of Banks. The purpose: to reconnect with the electorate’s large Chinese-Australian population Continue reading »
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BERTIL LINTER. China’s shifting view on the Korean Peninsula (Asian Times, 10.10.18)
As US-China relations deteriorate on various fronts, the last thing Beijing wants is for North Korea to fall into Washington’s sphere of influence Continue reading »
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WILLIAM PESEK. In Asia, ghosts of crises past return amid Trumpian trade war.
In a region where traces of the 2008 and 1997-98 carnage linger, Washington’s assault on Asia’s biggest growth engine could ignite another disaster. Continue reading »
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SHIRO ARMSTRONG. Japan’s high stakes diplomacy with the US and China. (East Asia Forum 14.10.2018)
Japan is now fully embarked on navigating a course through the economic and national security minefield that lies between the United States and China. Continue reading »
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GEOFF RABY. East Asia Just Became a More Dangerous Place
Hugh White in his controversial 2010 book, China Choice, warned Australian policy makers that with the rise of China, the time would come when the US would have to make a choice as to whether to withdraw gradually from East Asia and allow China strategic space for its continued expansion or to take a stand Continue reading »
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LOGAN PAULEY. China stakes out a role for itself in post-war Syria.
As Syria’s civil war winds down, China is looking to establish itself as an economic, and possibly military, partner for the post-war period. Continue reading »
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CHENGXIN PAN. Pence on China: reviving a neo-conservative Dream (Lowy Institute, 08.10.18)
Ever wondered who is now the culprit for many of the woes of the United States? Then look no further than a major speech delivered by US Vice President Mike Pence last week. Continue reading »
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DENISE FISHER. New Caledonia’s independence referendum
On 4 November, indigenous and some other longstanding New Caledonian residents will vote on the question “Do you want New Caledonia to accede to full sovereignty and become independent?” The referendum process will re-shape the role of France in the South Pacific at a time of geostrategic change, and yet is passing relatively unmarked in Continue reading »
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SCOTT MORRISON. Speech at Chinese-Australian Community Event
This speech by Scott Morrison on 4 October 2018 does not seem to have been run anywhere in the mainstream media. It is the most constructive statement from the government in a long time. Interestingly, the speech was posted on the Australian Embassy website in Beijing six days ago! (John Menadue) Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. Do we really need an American Ambassador? Or will Rupert Murdoch do?
Do we really need an American ambassador? Ambassadors are paid to represent their own country, not ours, so what’s in it for us? Do we really need an imperial legate to keep us in line when we never get out of line? Our media relies on American sources for its news and Rupert Murdoch makes Continue reading »
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STEPHEN COSTELLO. Who controls US policy on the Korean peninsula? (East Asia Forum, 5 October 2018)
Much has been made of the theatrical stand-off between North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump. But most signs show that the two could quickly reach a deal on how to move forward with DPRK denuclearisation and economic development. The real tension is between Trump, Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in Continue reading »
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JANE PERLEZ. Pence’s China Speech Seen as Portent of a ‘New Cold War’ (New York Times, 05.10.18)
BEIJING — Vice President Mike Pence’s accusations in a stinging speech Thursday warning of a tougher approach toward Beijing may have been familiar to China’s leaders. But until now, such remarks were delivered in private, in fairly decorous terms, and rarely threatened direct action. In Australia,another important ally, the government has been saying many of Continue reading »
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WILLIAM BRIGGS The anti-China syndrome at work in far away Tasmania.
A little over a century ago, the world plunged into war. The call to nationalism, national identity and symbolism was carefully promoted. The conditions that created that war still echo. We see, today, an integrated global capitalism in contradiction to a powerful nation-state system. We see fears, animosities and distrust between peoples and states rise Continue reading »
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President Moon Jae-in is driving the Korea peace train.
The Korean War is 68 years old. Despite a ceasefire in effect since 1953, the heavily militarized border is still patrolled by soldiers, ringed with barbed wire and covered in land mines. Almost seven decades of containing, isolating and embargoing North Korea have demonstrably failed. It is time to pause and reconsider. South Korean President Continue reading »
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China and New World Order. North Korea Part 4
The most acute contemporary manifestation of the demand on China to demonstrate responsible leadership is the challenge of North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Le Hong Hiep speculated on the prospect of a grand bargain between Trump and Xi when they met at Mar-a-Lago to accommodate US concerns on its massive bilateral trade deficit and on North Continue reading »
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China and New World Order. Rules Based Global Order Part 5
China recognizes that it has been a major beneficiary of the existing international order and it has proven to be a fast learner in operating as a responsible power within that order. Its primary goal therefore will not be to perturb the order, but to gain greater influence in writing the rules and running the Continue reading »
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DUNCAN GRAHAM. When giving aid, be humble.
In 2015 then PM Tony Abbott sought to save the lives of two convicted heroin traffickers. He reminded Indonesians that Australians had given $1 billion in emergency aid and rehabilitation following the 2004 Aceh tsunami, so please show mercy. He should have been better advised: Indonesians reacted angrily and made gestures of raising funds to Continue reading »
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SAM BATEMAN. Understanding American Freedom of Navigation Operation(FONOP) in the South China Sea
The recent encounter between American and Chinese warships in the South China Sea could be the fore-runner of more serious incidents unless both parties show more restraint. Continue reading »
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NILE BOWIE. The world according to Mahathir.
Malaysian premier is re-emerging as a strident yet pacifist spokesman for the non-aligned interests of the developing world. Continue reading »
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MARTIN WOLF. Donald Trump is wrong: China is not Mexico (Financial Times)
“When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win.” This tweet of March 2 set out the aims and means of Donald Trump’s trade policy. Continue reading »
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China and the New World Order. China–USA Part 2
Westerners may believe that the growing integration and interdependence of China with the regional and international economy makes armed conflict too costly to contemplate and that the Pacific military balance is so heavily in US favour that China would not be foolish enough to challenge Washington. But what if Beijing believes that the costs to Continue reading »
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China and World Order: Navigating the Thucydides and Kindleberger Traps Part 1
There have been two big geopolitical storylines thus far in this century: the US has suffered a relative decline from its dominant position at the end of the Cold War; and China has acquired impressive power in both relative and absolute terms. How China develops economically and evolves politically, and how it behaves domestically, regionally Continue reading »
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NICK BISLEY. The risks of a new Cold War between the US and China are real: here’s why (the Conversation, 26.08.18)
Donald Trump is making good on his trade war rhetoric with China, announcing tariffs on a further US$200 billion worth of goods from the PRC. As China promises retaliation, the warmth of the Mar-a-Lago summit of April 2017 is a thing of the past. When this is added to the wide-ranging tensions such as the Continue reading »
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Denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula: Explaining the Stalemate
With the conclusion of the third inter-Korean summit last week, the next challenge will be to find common understanding. Continue reading »
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NILE BOWIE. Mahathir has an Islam problem.
New premier wants Malaysia’s brand of Islam to reflect mercy, justice and compassion, a stance his conservative opponents have seized on as too soft and lenient. Continue reading »
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ANATLOE KALETSKY. The US Will Lose Its Trade War with China.
In handicapping the US-China conflict, Keynesian demand management is a better guide than comparative advantage. In principle, China can avoid any damage at all from US tariffs simply by responding with a full-scale Keynesian stimulus. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. The Moon-Kim Summit—what did it do, what did it amount to?
The Moon-Kim Summit in North Korea made some modest but significant achievements. The two leaders seemed surprisingly at ease with each other. How the meeting is assessed depends very much on the mind-set of the assessor, and what it achieves will depend very much on what the principals really want. Continue reading »
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DAVID DODWELL. Keep Calm and carry on amid the current state of the trade war, for time is on China’s side. (South China Morning Post 16.9.2018)
Over the weekend, Donald Trump’s trade team invited Beijing to fresh trade talks. Almost simultaneously, tweets from the White House cast doubt on the talks. Is this “good cop, bad cop” tactics? Or routine erratic signalling? How is one to respond, given how much the world economy is at stake? Having mulled this conundrum carefully Continue reading »
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WANNING SUN. Blind Spots in Australia’s Soft Power Strategies.
Blessed with an enviable healthy and relaxed lifestyle, beautiful landscape, and clean environment, Australia has rich soft power assets and resources. Yet, more than ever before, Australia faces unprecedented challenges in its soft power efforts. The China factor cannot be ignored, even when we are considering Australia’s soft power initiatives in places other than China. Continue reading »
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JOSEPH NYE. The two sides of American exceptionalism (Project Syndicate, 5.09.18)
In July, I joined 43 other scholars of international relations in paying for a newspaper advertisement arguing that the US should preserve the current international order. The institutions that make up this order have contributed to “unprecedented levels of prosperity and the longest period in modern history without war between major powers. US leadership helped Continue reading »
