A larger population will accelerate climate change

June 29, 2026

As a long-term admirer of Peter Sainsbury, I am hardly going to shoot the messenger! Nevertheless, his claim that lowering global population numbers won’t reduce climate change does warrant greater scrutiny, especially when his only reference comes from the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Economists notoriously ignore biological data in their prognostications so I would like another reference please from natural resource scientists.

Irrespective of whether the NBER is right, or not, I would argue that a bigger population will accelerate climate change, assuming average consumption and technology stay more or less the same. (I am hoping the latter will save the day, but for the purpose of this argument, let’s assume it doesn’t.)

More people means more food and fibre need to be produced which means more carbon-absorbing and carbon-retaining forests will be cut down. More people means more urban infrastructure which means more heat-island effect as more of the country is paved over. More people means more carbon-dioxide, just from their breathing. More people means more mining for the necessary minerals and metals to underpin their communication networks and lifestyles generally.

So, in line with the precautionary principle, could we at least stabilise population?