More on the South China Sea

August 7, 2026

The 2016 ruling on the South China Sea is more correctly termed an “Award,” not a “Judgement,” as it was not issued by a court with binding jurisdiction over both parties. An arbitration panel’s authority rests on mutual consent. China—though an UNCLOS signatory—declined to participate, denying the panel’s jurisdiction. Consequently, the tribunal was appointed solely by the Philippines and reached its decisions on jurisdiction and merits without Chinese evidence or substantive legal submissions. While not questioning the panel’s integrity, its members were selected for their known positions on contested international law issues. The result resembles a boxing victory awarded when one fighter refuses to enter the ring. The Western political and media fanfare surrounding the Award, has been amplified for a decade as part of general anti-China rhetoric. As Geoff Raby’s article shows, the subsequent actions of ASEAN member states have demonstrated the Award’s practical insignificance in the region. The celebration of the anniversary of the Award is an appropriate subject for derision.