The elephant in the room

August 18, 2026

Julian Cribb notes that the greatest elephant in the room is the fact that we have four times more humans than the planet can sustain. “Unless overpopulation is also addressed, all other solutions must fail,” says Cribb.

We are indeed in overshoot and need to pull back, but how to get down to two billion from the current eight billion? Japan and now China are showing the way with negative population growth. Western Europe and South Korea are on a similar track. Africa’s population, however, is still exploding and is expected to grow by another billion by mid-century. Fertility rates are coming down, but all too slowly. According to the UN’s Economic Commission for Africa: “In 1960, on average a woman in Africa had 6.6 children over her lifetime. This has progressively reduced to 3.8 in 2024 and is expected to decline further to 2.6 by 2050.” That is still way above replacement (2.1), let alone below replacement that would eventually see populations decline.

We know how to reduce birth rates: universal access to contraception, equality for women and girls and education for girls. Unfortunately, cultural factors often get in the way in Africa and elsewhere. That has to change.