The reduce the tobacco tax emperor has no clothes

August 3, 2026

Alex Wodak yet again calls for tobacco excise cuts to reduce the appeal of illicit tobacco. If all excise was removed, the carton price of a pack would fall to from $40+ to $11.50. Today you can buy an illicit pack for $7 which could fall much lower with packs selling in Cambodia – a key smuggling transit hub – for 34c. His “absurdly restricted” vapes in every imaginable flavour are also available cheaply in every illicit shop, yet the latest AIHW data show no growth in vaping, but a record fall in smoking. So why would deregulation of vapes out of pharmacies make any difference with availability everywhere? Australia has lower smoking now than the USA, Canada, UK, New Zealand and Europe thanks to the slow-burn cumulative impact of decades of tobacco control driving both reduced uptake and quitting. Today’s vapes can deliver up to 70,000 puffs with nicotine salts facilitating unprecedented inhalation. Increased nicotine in wastewater is a likely result. Wodak and others have always accepted previous AIHW data. Now it reflects the success of policy, they suddenly question it.