Pearls and Irritations

Mao Zedong once said: “A single spark can start a prairie fire!”

Some think the same may be said now about Taiwan starting a conflict with China that the U.S. and Russia will join leading to a catastrophic global war.

The reasons? There are two wars in progress in the world now. Why not a third? It seems a good opportunity for China to recover Taiwan, the last piece of China lost to foreign imperialism and the key to erasing China’s century of humiliation. China’s military, which promotes Chinese nationalism, would take pride in being called upon to take Taiwan back.

U.S. arms companies would love another war. So would the neocons. Likewise, the liberal media that has suffered a loss of readers and viewers with Trump’s landslide election victory. They would adore a war that refutes Donald’s claim he will keep peace in the world. Strategy pundits would also like a war; it would give them something to talk about and better speaking fees.

Lots of war lovers，

What about Taiwan?

In January 2024, Taiwan held its quadrennial presidential/legislative election. Vice president Lai Ching-te won the election. (President Tsai Ing-wen was not eligible to run owing to a two-term limit.) Lai’s win constituted the third win in a row for his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), prompting the local and foreign media to proclaim it a big victory over the Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).

But it was a qualified victory or not really a victory at all. Lai won only 40 percent of the popular vote. Lai’s predecessor, Tsai In-wen, received 56 and 57 percent respectively in 2016 and 2020. Further, had the KMT and TPP joined together with a unity ticket, as they had discussed, Lai would not have won the presidency.

Worse still, the DPP lost the legislative part of the election handing President Lai the pain of divided government.

The situation was reminiscent of Chen Shui-bian’s win in 2000 when his party, also the DPP, failed to win the legislature. What followed was constant struggles between the legislative and executive branches of government and paralysis in governing. Gridlock was the name of the game. Chen was “caged” and resorted to extra-ordinary means to try to lead.

Like Chen’s situation, President Lai found it difficult to fulfil his campaign promises and enact his agenda. The legislature diverted a sizeable portion of his budget to local units of government. It undermined his presidency in other ways. His popularity as registered by the polls fell—from 58 percent at the time of his inauguration to 42 percent in November.

In that milieu, he resorted to provoking China to rally residents to support him. Beijing responded by sending its navy and air force on missions close to Taiwan as a warning to Lai about his support for independence (which had long been his aim) and to generally intimidate him and Taiwan. Lai struck back with more anti-China statements, including making the claim loudly that Taiwan is a democracy and China is not.

This fostered increased China-Taiwan tension and, of course, more speculation in Taiwan and elsewhere of open confect between the two followed by a Chinese invasion and the U.S, and Russia entering the scene as a prelude to World War III.

Enter Donald J. Trump who had just won the U.S. presidential election. Trump made his views known with some stern talk reflecting the fact he didn’t approve of President Lai baiting Chinese leaders with talk of China being a dictatorship, Taiwan wanting to choose its own future, and more. Trump viewed Lai as stoking tension for his own political gains and dangerous.

Thus, Trump remarked publicly about America’s big trade deficit with Taiwan, saying “Taiwan should pay us for its defence” (even though Taiwan was paying millions for U.S.-made arms). He added that Taiwan was closer geographically to China than the United States and “I would not feel so secure if I was them. “

Vice President Bikhim Hsiao was born of an American mother and Taiwanese father and educated from a young girl in the U.S. She was a fluent speaker of English and Chinese, plus she was experienced in Taiwan politics and served as Taiwan’s representative to the U.S. where she was highly liked and respected before she was picked as Lai’s VP. Hsiao might have saved the day,

But she was reportedly very close to former President Tsai Ing-wen and Tsai and President Lai were not on good terms. Thus, Hsiao was not called upon to help and was not seen in the news much.

Instead, President Lai and the DPP weaponised the judiciary to file a corruption case against TPP leader, Ko Wen-je, to eliminate him from playing a role in politics in Taiwan. Many considered the case feeble since it focused on Ko transferring party funds to his own bank accounts—something that was quite common in Taiwan. President Chen had done it. Former KMT party secretary and presidential candidate James Soong in 2000 was accused of doing it and was exonerated. President Ma was cited for it.

The prosecutor’s office had Ko arrested, detained, then let out on bail, then incarcerated again. Ko resigned as head of the TPP. The DPP then tried to poach its members to destroy the party that had won considerable support from young people in Taiwan and gave voters a third choice between and DPP and the KMT (which polls showed they wanted).

Subsequently, the DPP sought out civic groups to petition for charges against KMT members of the legislature and have them recalled. The intent was to reduce the size of the KMT’s majority in the legislative branch of government and put the DPP in control. Some observers described this as all-out war between the two parties, with the DPP accusing the KMT of being pro-China and unconcerned about Taiwan’s sovereignty and the KMT charging the DPP wanted a war.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden final approved a $571 military sale to Taiwan to upgrade Taiwan’s defences against China, including missiles and more. It was the second in four months. Biden’s announcement was tagged as an attempt to undermine president-elect Donald Trump’s claim to be a peace president that might well spark a conflict between China and Taiwan.

Chinese leaders responded calling it “playing with fire” and “crossing the Taiwan red line.”

Further, the “arms sale crisis” happened at a time when President Xi was dealing with an economic downturned (called by some a recession), pressure from Donald Trump about America’s trade deficit with China and a promise to apply tariffs on imports from China, and tension with his own military over corruption among other issues.

Almost paralleling this “embroglio” President Lai arranged publicly held war games for the first time ever to underscore China’s “gray zone warfare” and it employing psychological and other tactics to weaken Taiwan’s resistance. Lai reportedly perceived Taiwan’s awareness of China’s intentions needed improving.

Days later seven ex-military officers in Taiwan were charged with spying for China. The indictments mentioned contacting intelligence officials from China, wanting to launch a new political party, and receiving money from China. The punishment was reported to be “at least” seven years in jail and 50 to 100 million Taiwan dollars in fines.

The charges were made via the Anti-Infiltration Act passed in late 2019 by the DPP- controlled legislature to curb China’s influence in Taiwan prior to a presidential election a few months later. Critics blasted it for demolishing free speech and hurting Taiwan’s democracy.

Recently, President Lai met with former vice-president Mike Pense (during Trump’s first term) who stated the U.S. should rescue Taiwan in the event a Chinese invasion. It appeared Lai had faulty counsel in view of the fact Pence does not have a government position and has been at odds with President Trump.

Then President Lai oversaw the revoking of citizenship of three noted people for having a Chinese ID card or flag and another for a non-specified cause. This went beyond cancelling citizenship for those with Chinese citizenship or serious ties with China.

In early 2025 President Lai’s popularity showed no increase while the DPP’s fell. Residents that opposed the two big parties, the DPP and the KMT, increased.

All of this has prompted more observers to perceive that the above constitutes a danger of Taiwan causing an escalation of conflict with China that may well spiral into WWIII.

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