Recent commentary has suggested politics in 2022 witnessed a “progressive wave” – a global trend towards parties of the Left. While this is legitimate if you are content to look at just the UK and USA, the global picture is much more complex.
I noticed George Megalogenis’ recent article about the possibility of a “progressive wave” in the Anglosphere and other commentary suggesting a global trend towards parties of the Left.
While this is a legitimate point if you are content to look at just the UK and USA or selected others, the global picture is much more complex.
Some of the elections of 2022 are difficult to classify across a progressive/conservative continuum. For example, Papua New Guinea’s recent election and some of the elections in the Balkans don’t lend themselves to analysis within such a framework. Similarly, the recent contest between former PM Bainimarama and Sitiveni Rabuka in Fiji cuts across conventional western interpretation. What was significant in Fiji was the peaceful transfer of power after the incumbent lost the election, something the US found very difficult in 2020. A similar peaceful transfer of power occurred in Kenya after a hotly contested and very close presidential election.
However, most of the elections during 2022 can be broadly classified across the conventional framework.
It is true that progressive parties have had some good results. In Europe, progressive parties in Albania, Portugal, Malta and Denmark did well and in France the Right was once again beaten in the Presidential election by the most electable non-right candidate, although Macron should probably be classified as a centrist.
In Latin America the Left did well, exemplified by Lula’s election as President of Brazil. However, it must be acknowledged that an attempt to establish a new and progressive constitution in Chile was a disastrous failure.
Elsewhere, the Right and in particular the extreme Right did disconcertingly well in a number of countries. In South Korea the conservative presidential candidate won narrowly. In Israel the most right-wing government ever was elected and in Hungary Victor Orban’s party won a crushing victory. In traditionally progressive Sweden the ultra-right wing party, the Sweden Democrats, made big gains and helped establish a centre right government.
The outstanding example of right-wing victories was in Italy. Here, the Brothers of Italy Party, with links to the Fascist past in Italy, led a right-wing coalition to government. This may presage a significant change in Italian politics or may prove to be a brief flirtation with extremists. However, the result has very worrying potential which should give us all food for thought.
It is not possible to discern a sweeping global pattern to either end of the political spectrum.
What is notable is the failure of centre-right parties overall. Where they gained government, it was principally as a result of improved performance of the ultra-right at the expense of the centre-left.
This may suggest a pattern similar to that emerging in Australia in which the parties of the centre-right are losing support among younger voters. Polling suggests that they are seen as have nothing to offer on the issues of most concern to young people. Younger voters appear to be judging the mainstream conservative parties as having nothing positive to say about issues like climate change and the environment or their housing concerns. It may be that a long-term change is under way, but it is too soon to be definitive.
Following this complex pattern of results in 2022 the coming year will certainly see some interesting elections.
In Africa the big one is the Nigerian Presidential election, in which the incumbent is term-limited and a maverick outsider has a serious chance. In Latin America the key election will be in Argentina where the left of centre President has very low approval ratings but it does not appear that any consensus alternative candidate has emerged.
In Asia I think the most important election will be in Thailand, where democracy is struggling to revive. In Europe there are major elections in Greece, Spain, Poland and possibly the UK.
The Presidential election in Turkey will be important as challengers to Erdogan struggle to get a hearing.
Of course, in our part of the world there are scheduled elections due in New Zealand as well as the NSW state election and the very important Voice to Parliament referendum.
I don’t expect a sweeping global pattern to emerge, local factors tend to be too strong, but it will be interesting to see whether any of the centre-right parties can buck the 2022 trend.
Bob McMullan was State Secretary of the Labor Party and National Secretary as well as a Senator, MP and Cabinet Minister. He is now a Visiting fellow at the Australian Studies Institute at ANU.
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