Tensions in a deeply economically linked world

March 8, 2024

The world is confronting a time of radically increased tensions between nations, and corporations, that supply essential commodities to each other. I cannot think of any period in human history where military tensions existed between parties that were economically dependent on each other.

For most of human history, trade was in exotica - spices, valued metals, fish sauce from the Sea of Galilee to Rome. Desirable items, but not essential. Even the trade in lamb from Australia and New Zealand to England was non-essential - if you don’t have a lamb roast on Sunday in Leicester, you still eat something.

But our global trade system now trades in essentials. Drugs, fertilizers, critical intermediate minerals, spare parts…

And a disruption to this trade hurts all parties. If your country can’t import essential heart drugs, people die. We have a dependency on trade for essentials (not optional extras) unprecedented in human history.

And these come from China to Australia, and from Australia to China. Not optional extras. The essentials of life.

Is our military and strategic planning and thinking focused 199% on the economic, and existential, impact of conflict with a strategic economic partner.

Forget ‘open’ sea lanes, think ’empty’ sea lanes