How will the Earth cope with a billion refugees?

July 28, 2025

Richard Heinberg cites Tim Lenton’s book Future of the human climate niche that warns that 2 degrees C warming may result in a billion refugees. Later, Heinberg refers to “the simple, though stark, reality that humanity faces climate change and resource depletion, and that living space is likely to become more constricted”.

We may reach 2 degrees warming by 2035. That is 10 years away. How on Earth are we to cope with a billion displaced humans in the next decade? Where will they all go? Surely, this is emerging as one of the great moral crises of our time?

In Australia, we seem to have trouble accommodating a mere 13,750 refugees every year. Of course, that number should be increased somewhat, but not to the hundreds of thousands or even the million level. We simply cannot accommodate them and, anyway, our own carrying capacity will diminish as climate warms.

It would appear Australia has two moral courses to take: mitigate climate change as much as possible and thereby help delay 2-degree warming; and massively increase foreign aid to help people in other countries adapt to climate change which would hopefully minimise their ultimate displacement, particularly across borders.