Low fertility and national happiness aligned

August 13, 2025

Thanks to Noel Turnbull for directing attention to the annual UN-backed World Happiness Report. It’s worthwhile going to the bottom of the table and comparing the ten unhappiest with the ten happiest at the top. Just as happiness appears to be associated with a cold climate, unhappiness could be loosely associated with a hot one.

Nevertheless, a closer association can be found with fertility rates (the number of children per woman). With the exception of Israel, (2.92), all the happiest countries have fertility rates between 1.43 (Costa Rica) and 1.97 (Iceland). Apart from Israel, all are below replacement (2.1) but not so low as to distort the age structure excessively, that is, cause rapid ageing of the population. The average for the 10 happiest countries is 1.81. Take out Israel and the average for the remaining nine is 1.68.

At the other end of the happiness table, with the exception of Lebanon (1.71), all have fertility rates between 2.34 (Botswana) and 5.49 (DR Congo). The average fertility for the 10 unhappiest countries is 3.25. Take out Lebanon and the average for the remaining nine is 3.42, twice the fertility of the happiest countries bar Israel.

There’s a lesson there somewhere.