Letter
Key climate mitigation issue overlooked
Like Peter Newman and Ray Wills, I’ve been a renewable energy researcher and campaigner for decades. But responsible boosting of renewables must recognise key barriers that Peter and Ray overlook. Growth in renewable energy, rapid though it is, is chasing growth in energy consumption. The result: in 2019, fossil fuels supplied 80% of global total final energy consumption, the same as in 2000. By 2022, renewables had reduced this to 78%. Even at several times their recent growth rate, renewables cannot overtake and replace fossil fuels by 2050. Yet a rapid transition is needed to avoid crossing climate tipping points.
Further, in substituting renewables for fossil fuels, the rate-limiting step is not only how rapidly we can build renewables. It is also how rapidly we can shift from fossil fuels in transportation and heating to renewable electricity. Renewable electricity generation cannot be greater than total electricity demand.
The key problem is to reduce energy demand in the rich economies and rapidly growing economies. Increasing energy efficiency will help, but is unlikely to be sufficient. As energy growth has not been decoupled from economic growth, we must transition to a steady-state economy. Facing the barriers squarely is not climate fatalism!
— Mark Diesendorf from Sydney, Australia