Reviewing poll findings on US alliance

September 1, 2025

One striking aspect of year-to-year changes in Lowy Institute polling figures, covering the popularity among Australians of Australia-US relations reported on by Jaron Sutton, can perhaps be explained by a differing interpretation of the response to one particular question in the poll.

Sutton reports that in the polls between March, 2024 and 2025, Australians’ trust in the US to act responsibly in the world had “plummetted” from 64% to 44%, yet despite this, a “whopping” 80% of Australians felt the US alliance was very or fairly important for our security, down just three points from 83% in 2024.

I paraprase to say that Sutton concludes from this that Australians’ faith in the alliance remains stronger than it perhaps should be, given our reduced trust, and that this implies the resilience of the alliance, perhaps unfortunately in the context.

I believe another interpretation can be placed on Australians’ ranking of the ongoing importance of the alliance. I think they are seeking to be as factual as possible (i.e. not offering a preference) to what appears as a question of factual understanding, rather than an opinion, as sought by most other questions in the poll.

I can rest more peacefully that way.