Lies, damned lies and statistics

October 21, 2025

This is the phrase that sprang to mind on reading Michael Keating’s article on migration in Australia. While not really accusing him of lying, I would suggest he is cherry-picking data to support his case, which is basically to maintain high levels of population growth in Australia.

According to the latest figures from ABS, population growth was 1.6% in the year to March this year, an increase of 423,400 people, of which net overseas migration was 315,900 or about three quarters. Yes, 1.6% is a lot better than the Third World rates of 2.5% we saw in 2023, but is it now “normal” as Keating claims? Not really, even when you look at the rate rather than actual numbers.

In recent decades, the rate was between 1.2% and 1.5%. The total numbers were much greater, however, because they were on a bigger base. Compare 1985 and 2015, for instance. Both had growth rates of 1.4%, but in 1985 the increase was 224,000 (population 15.658 million) while in 2015 the increase was 326,100 (population 23.9 million). Now we’re increasing by 423,400 annually.

The Liberals were justified in expressing their concerns before the election. They lost despite them; not because of them.