Doyle’s warning: Japan’s defensive shift

February 18, 2026

The recent analysis regarding Japan’s departure from its pacifist equilibrium raises vital concerns about regional stability. At first glance, the critique of Tokyo’s Five-Year Plan – aiming to elevate defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP by 2027 – might seem alarmist. Doubling a budget that traditionally hovered around 1 per cent represents a seismic shift in Japan’s post-war identity. However, while the transition is jarring, the author’s underlying apprehension regarding the risk of entrapment is ultimately justified when viewed through the lens of sonritsu kiki jitai.

This philosophy of “survival-threatening situations” allows Japan to exercise collective self-defence if its national existence is endangered. By rapidly augmenting its military capabilities, Japan risks lowering the threshold for what constitutes such a crisis. This creates a strategic paradox: while intended to deter aggression, these expenditures may inadvertently provoke the very instability they seek to prevent. The regional impact is profound, as neighbouring states view this rearmament not as defensive, but as a catalyst for escalation. Despite its necessary modernisation, Japan’s trajectory threatens to turn a policy of survival into a self-fulfilling prophecy of conflict. One must agree that this remilitarisation demands more rigorous diplomatic oversight.