Peak China? Judge by outcomes not ideology
Peak China? Judge by outcomes not ideology
Geoff Raby

Peak China? Judge by outcomes not ideology

Distinguishing in part between cyclical and structural economic challenges facing China, (eg, real estate busts vis further urbanisation potential) Geoff Raby, AO, former Australian Ambassador to China, to APEC and WTO, is sceptical of arguments propounding ‘peak china’ economic growth.

Raby sees considerable potential for the realisation of China’s communist party led vision of scientific and technological transformation to the ‘fourth industrial revolution’. The party’s political leadership has already resulted in significant advances and outcomes towards this goal, notwithstanding ideologically based critiques of the current leadership under Xi Jinping for its authoritarianism and state control.

Raby also discusses concerns about growing moves globally to increased government interventions in trade and investment at the same time as there are emergent signs of a ’new world order’.

Listen to the full interview here:

Geoff Raby

Geoff Raby was Australia’s Ambassador to China from 2007-11, during which he visited all provinces in China officially. He served in Beijing as First Secretary (Economic) and then Counsellor (Economic), 1986-91. He was Ambassador to the WTO in Geneva, Ambassador to APEC, and Deputy Secretary, 2003-07. He was also head of the Trade Policy Issues Division of the OECD, Paris, 1993-95. He is a non-executive independent director of ASX listed-companies Yancoal, where he chairs the Health, Safety, Environment and Community Committee, and sits on the Board of the Gavan Foundaton.

His most recent book, Great Game On: the contest for central Asia and global supremacy, was published by Melbourne University Press on 12 November 2024. His previous book was China’s Grand Strategy and Australia’s Future in the World Order (MUP Nov 2020). He regularly contributes op eds and travel writing to the Australian Financial Review. He holds a PhD in economics. He was awarded the Order of Australia (AO) in June 2019 for services to Australia-China bilateral relations and to multilateral trade.