Eighty-nine. That’s the magic number. It will take at least 89 cardinals to elect Pope Francis’ successor. [The author has returned to UCA News after a year away].

That’s the two-thirds supermajority of the 133 men who will enter the Sistine Chapel on 7 May for the largest conclave in history. It would have been even larger had two other cardinal-electors not been too ill to participate.

Francis was widely popular throughout the world, even if some vocal groups of more traditional-leaning and rules-oriented Catholics, especially the men who make up the clergy, viewed him as causing confusion and not enforcing longstanding doctrine.

But what about this group of cardinal electors? Are there 89 among them who will vote for a man who believes the Church should continue boldly and prophetically on the path of openness and renewal that the world’s first Jesuit pope set forth — often in unpredictable, non-conventional, and disruptive ways — during his 12 years in office? Or will they want someone more cautious and closely tethered to institutional protocols, even if he shares the overall vision that the late pope championed for the Church’s future? These two essential questions constitute the referendum that the cardinal-electors will begin voting on the afternoon of 7 May, as they face the arduous task of choosing the 267th Bishop of Rome.

But before they assemble under Michelangelo’s imposing fresco of the Last Judgment, they will join with the entire College of Cardinals (including those over the age of 80 who cannot vote) for a morning Eucharistic liturgy in St Peter’s Basilica. This “Mass for the election of the Roman Pontiff” (Missa pro eligendo Romano Pontifice) will be led by Italian Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, the college’s 91-year dean who also presided over the late pope’s funeral. It is expected that he will, once again, as he did at the funeral, urge the voting cardinals to continue along the ways of Francis.

The Roman Curia ‘bloc’

But it is not certain they will follow this lifelong curia official’s advice. In the pre-conclave meetings leading up to the conclave, a retired papal diplomat, who was thought to be a key supporter of Francis’ agenda, criticised a central aspect of the late pope’s Vatican reforms, according to various media reports.

During a pre-conclave meeting this past week, Cardinal Benjamin Stella, 83, fiercely attacked the pope’s legislation allowing lay people to hold top jobs in the Roman Curia. Just months after his election as pope, Francis tapped Stella, then head of the Holy’s See’s elite academy to train Holy See diplomats, to head the then-Congregation for the Clergy.

The late pope chose this Northern Italian from the Veneto region presumably for his level-headedness and distinguished diplomatic career. Stella had served as papal nuncio (Vatican ambassador) in countries of the Global South such as Colombia, Cuba, and two African nations. He was in the very first group of cardinals Francis created in early 2014 and was considered a trusted aide. The retired cardinal’s rebuke of Francis, therefore, is highly significant, especially since it is acknowledged he is fully backing the papal election of Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the former Secretary of State who also hails from the Veneto.

Stella’s intervention is also significant on a more subtle and less frequently discussed level – the number of present or former Vatican officials who are voting cardinals. There are at least 33, about a dozen of whom have served in the Holy See’s diplomatic corps. While being careful not to over-generalise, these cardinals with experience working in the Church’s central offices (even those who have been staunch supporters of Pope Francis) were not always comfortable with the often chaotic (and some say “despotic”) way the late pope governed, especially by routinely sidelining his aides in the curia.

Admittedly, not all of them will choose a safer, more institutionally anchored candidate. The more recent curia appointments, for instance, appear to be solidly behind Francis. Among this bloc of 33 are several former Vatican officials, including men like Cardinal Joseph Tobin of Newark, NJ, a former No. 2 official of the Vatican office for consecrated life. However, even such backers of the late pope may feel inclined to seek a Francis-type candidate who demonstrates greater institutional discipline.

‘Hacer lio’: the late pope’s penchant for shaking things up and making a mess

This is an extremely difficult papal sweepstakes to handicap, mostly because of a wildcard the late pope threw into the race – that is, the significant number of electors who come from far-flung places where there has never been cardinals. These men are not well-known. Some come from mission territories or Church backwaters (“peripheries” in the Francis lexicon) where the Catholic population is miniscule (like Algeria, Morocco, Tonga, Mongolia and Iran), while those in other countries are heads of “lesser important dioceses” rather than archdioceses (like Milan or Los Angeles) that have traditionally been led by cardinals. They are not well-known even among themselves. In 10 consistories over the course of his 12-year-long pontificate, Pope Francis appointed just over 80% of the 133 men who will choose his successor. But during those 12 years, he called the entire College of Cardinals together for only two meetings – one in 2014, during his first consistory, and one in 2022. Since that last gathering, another 37 more cardinals have been added to the body of electors.

The pope, who often encouraged young people not to be afraid to shake things up or make a mess (hacer lio in Spanish), has pretty much done exactly that through the unconventional way he chose the papal electors and then never promoted opportunities for them to familiarise themselves with each other’s thoughts and personalities.

Who will be the next pope?

Predicting Pope Francis’ successor is a fool’s errand, especially for someone who has never picked a winner. However, a few criteria, besides being a baptised male, seem necessary for becoming the Bishop of Rome – the pope’s most important (not humblest!) title from which all others follow and on which they depend.

First of all, it is essential that the pope has at least a fairly good command of Italian. Not only is he Bishop of Rome, but he also heads the universal Church’s central bureaucracy in Vatican City. It may be an independent state, but the Vatican is a tiny island within Rome. And Italian is the working language of this entity. By the way, it is also the working language of the conclave and the pre-conclave meetings.

Other than that, it is up to the cardinal-electors to decide who has the right stuff to be pope. Many believe Francis set a very high bar (evidenced by his widespread global popularity) and leaves large shoes to fill. However, the cardinals may see the bar as too high and the shoes as too big. Therefore, they may be tempted to opt for a pope who is very different, one who has a very different personality and is poised to pursue different priorities, even if not fully reversing Francis’ course. In this case, the old metaphor, “after a fat pope comes a skinny pope”, (which has little or nothing to do with actual body weight!) might hold true. And if there are more closeted conservatives or contrarians like Cardinal Stella in the ranks of the electors, we could see someone different than the late pope on the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica after the white smoke billows from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel. However, this could be a dangerous path if the new man lacks the warmth and earthiness of Francis.

In any case, all 133 voting cardinals are candidates to be the next pope, but here are just five of them that many Vatican-watchers are highlighting:

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

The 70-year-old Italian has been Secretary of State since nearly the start of the last pontificate. He is a solid institutional figure, moderate in his theological views, who has long been recognised as one of the Vatican’s most skilled diplomats. This positions him as an intriguing candidate for these increasingly fraught geopolitical times. However, he lacks personal charisma and pastoral experience. In a post-Vatican II Church, will the cardinals in the peripheries and those who lead local Churches select someone who has never served as a diocesan bishop or a parish priest?

Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle 

A warm and affable Filipino who will be 68 in June, “Chito” (as he likes to be called) is sometimes tagged the “Asian Francis”. That’s not a bad calling card if his fellow cardinals look to keep the momentum of the current pontificate at full speed ahead. However, this positive could also be a negative. Tagle is a theologian in the pro-Vatican II mould and became a bishop in 2001 at 44. Benedict XVI appointed him Archbishop of Manila 10 years later and then made him a cardinal in 2012. Francis brought Tagle to the Vatican at the end of 2019 to head Propaganda Fide, the dicastery for evangelisation. He has many fans, but also a number of detractors. Some believe he may be too weak to manage the complexity and sometimes rough-and-tumble world of the Roman Curia. Nonetheless, he’d likely be a compelling face and icon of the Church to the outside world.

Cardinal Péter Erdő

The Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest is recognised as a top-notch canon lawyer and a trusted churchman by the more doctrinally conservative and traditional-minded quarters of the Church. He will be 73 in June, which many consider to be within the perfect age range for the next pope. The Hungarian, who speaks Italian extremely well, has been elected twice by his peers as president of the Council of European Bishops’ Conference. He proudly wears the mantle of Church “moderate”, while studiously concealing his much more conservative leanings. He has carefully refrained from publicly criticising Francis. Many of his peers, even those with vastly different theological views, give him high marks for his graciousness. However, he has never sparked a mass outpouring of affection from the Hungarian clergy or people, despite his more than 21 years as the country’s leading bishop and cardinal. A big question is whether the non-European cardinals are ready to elect someone from the Old Continent again.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa OFM

The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem recently turned 60, an age many believe is too young at which to be pope. However, this Italian Franciscan, who has spent most of his religious life in Jerusalem, is a compelling figure, especially since he comes from the very city and region where the “Jesus movement” began more than 2000 years ago. A former head of the Franciscan Custody of the Holy Land, Pizzaballa was named administrator of the overwhelmingly arabophile Latin Patriarchate in 2016, despite being a fluent Hebrew speaker with minimal facility in Arabic. His main job was to solve longstanding financial problems and improprieties. After deftly completing the task, many believed he would be put in charge of a major Italian archdiocese like Milan. Instead, Pope Francis named him patriarch in 2020 and gave him a red hat three years later. He has been a voice of peace and reason during the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian war. And even the so-called moderate-conservatives like him, viewing him as more traditional and progressive. But his age may disqualify him. As some cardinals at the 1958 conclave said of Giuseppe Siri, their 52-year-old Italian confrere who was highly touted to succeed Pius XII, “We’re looking for a Holy Father, not an Everlasting Father!”

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi

The 69-year-old Archbishop of Bologna is also mentioned as a leading Italian candidate. A bicycle-riding parish priest from Rome, who has been part of the Sant’Egidio Community since his teenage years, Zuppi is president of the Italian Episcopal Conference. He was favoured by Pope Francis, who used him as an envoy to try and end the ongoing war in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion of its neighbour. However, like Erdő and Parolin (and even Pizzaballa to some extent), will the cardinals want to elect a pope from Europe?

And now here are two cardinals who could be “the pope we didn’t see coming”:

Cristóbal López Romero SDB

It’s probably unfair to put this Spanish-born Salesian of Don Bosco in a list of dark horses because he’s become a noticeable presence for a number of reasons, not least his participation in the Synod assemblies in Rome. His impressive resumé includes pastoral work for most of his adult life in South America (Paraguay and Bolivia). Cardinal López also spent several years (2003-11) doing pastoral and professional formation in Morocco where he would return in early 2018 after Pope Francis appointed him Archbishop of Rabat. Especially since becoming a cardinal in 2019, López has made a deep and positive impression on many, including leaders of the Muslim world, with whom he has collaborated on various religious and social projects. A polyglot with a warm and disarming personality, the lightly bearded and smiling cardinal is considered even by the more traditional cardinals to be institutionally reliable. He went to study at a Salesian seminary at 11 and made his first profession to the religious community when he was only 16. If that is not part of the institutional Church, it’s hard to say what is.

Cardinal Albert Malcom Ranjith Patabendige Don

Known simply as Malcom Ranjith in Roman circles, the 77-year-old Archbishop of Colombo (Sri Lanka) is considered by many to be too conservative and, perhaps, even too old. However, few among the cardinal-electors and candidates have a resumé that ticks all the boxes of the various voting blocs: he’s Asian, a former top Vatican Curia official, a former papal nuncio, and has 26 years experience as a diocesan bishop. Ranjith was ordained as a priest in 1975 by Pope Paul VI while studying in Rome, where he earned a Licentiate in Sacred Scripture at the Pontifical Biblical Institute. He displayed his traditionalist stripes in spades and made significant waves during the little more than three years he served as the No. 2 official in the then-Congregation for Divine Worship during Benedict XVI’s pontificate. The late Bavarian pope appointed him Archbishop of Colombo in 2009 and made him a cardinal a year later. During his nearly 16 years in Colombo, he has distinguished himself as a fierce defender of human rights and has somewhat toned down his traditionalist positions. But becoming pope? Like the man who gave him his red hat, stranger things have happened.

So, pray for the cardinal electors and, starting 7 May, keep an eye out for the white smoke!

Republished from UCAnews, 2 May