Who holds the better cards – China or the US?
Who holds the better cards – China or the US?
Richard Cullen

Who holds the better cards – China or the US?

The mainstream Western media and global, alternative media outlets have been delivering a remarkable converging stream of blistering commentary since 2 April on what is now widely called, even by The Economist, Trump’s tariff tantrum.

These reviews are especially focused on the extent of terrible damage the US has visited on itself, its allies and world markets. And how the exceptional, “Liberation Day” project has also materially advanced the standing of America’s annointed, paramount foe, China.

Robert Wu, writing in The New York Times, argues convincingly that, “Trump Has Botched His Tariff War With China”. Wu maintains that:

“China, under President Xi Jinping, has spent years preparing for this expected trade confrontation with the United States, through its messaging at home and by prioritising technological self-sufficiency, economic security and industrial retooling. In recent months, it has taken additional steps to strengthen the economy [including] promoting domestic consumption and embracing China’s leading private sector entrepreneurs.

“So far, it is Mr. Trump who has blinked after [his initiative] sparked fears of a recession, crashed global financial markets and caused American business titans to publicly question the president’s approach.”

Wu adds:

“Mr Trump’s negotiating position will weaken by the day as US consumers feel the sting of rising inflation, investors watch their stock portfolios suffer and chief executives see the business outlook darken. …. What [Trump] has done is raise the risk of a world recession and make China appear like the more stable and reliable economic partner.”

At The Atlantic, Rogé Karma asked, around the same time: “What If China Wins the Trade War?” noting how “the United States could still prevail if it does everything right [but] the … the Trump administration is doing everything wrong”.

This outbreak of this chaotic tariff war is not good for China. But the way that Washington has triggered it so recklessly has, as Wu says, “validated years of official warnings” from Beijing and visibly strengthened public support for the Chinese Government’s robust response. Which, in turn, has reduced Trump to barely disguised, public pleading for Xi to phone him.

One measure of how well China is coping, overall, is evident in the immediate, widespread resort to humour online delivered by some exceptional, Chinese Trump impersonators, coupled with sharp, satirical videos.

At the conclusion of a recent UK interview, Michael Sheridan, the author of a critical biography of Xi Jinping (entitled “The Red Emperor) and a veteran foreign correspondent for The Sunday Times, was asked whether China or the US would emerge as the winner in this raucously evolving tariff war. Sheridan’s well-illustrated reply advised that, ultimately, he was putting his money on China.

Richard Cullen

Richard Cullen is an Adjunct Professor in the Faculty of Law at the University of Hong Kong. He was previously a Professor in the Department of Business Law and Taxation at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.