Before the drawings have been completed, new detection technology has already made RN SSN AUKUS obsolete.

After extraordinary U-boat success in sinking allied shipping in the early years of World War II, the commander of the German submarine fleet, Admiral Karl Doenitz, reported to Hitler in May 1943: “We are facing the greatest crisis in submarine warfare, since the enemy, by means of new location devices…. makes fighting impossible, and is causing heavy losses.”

For Doenitz, the high point for his fleet was the second half of 1942, when improved and larger U-boats with a greater cruising range, greater depth capabilities and improved communications, ruled the Atlantic.

But all that came to an end. A combination of Allied technical advances, intelligence, organisation and new tactics forced Doenitz to, in effect, call off his U-boat campaign in the North Atlantic on 24 May 1943.

In the current war in Ukraine, we have seen how hugely expensive and highly sophisticated tanks can be taken out by cheap drones, making one wonder whether any Ukrainian will want to ride in one of Australia’s obsolete M1A1 Abrams tanks if the Ukrainians ever get them into operation.

Sending obsolete tanks to Ukraine is one thing. Spending hundreds of billions of dollars on a submarine project that, at best, will produce obsolete metal monsters at some indeterminate time in the future is quite another.

And regrettably, that is precisely what Australia is doing.

China is currently testing a drone-mounted quantum sensor system that can detect the tiniest changes in the earth’s magnetic field, such as changes caused by a large metal object moving deep across the ocean.

Reports on the Chinese test indicate that it is much better than NATO’s Magnetic Anomaly Detection-Extended Role (MAD-XR) system currently installed on anti-submarine craft. MAD-XR can not only be used on traditional maritime patrol aircraft, but can also be extended to smaller platforms such as unmanned aerial systems, helicopters and smaller fixed-wing aircraft. MAD-XR uses several probes, but is complex to deploy.

The Chinese magnetic field monitoring system needs further development. On the most optimistic scenarios, Australia will not get its first Virginia Class submarine until the early 2030s and will not get its first RN SSN-AUKUS in service until 2040. Does anyone seriously believe that that in the seven years until Australians staff the first Virginia Class sub or in the 15 years until we have an AUKUS sub, the Chinese detection system would not have moved on so far as to make these magnetic monsters obsolete?

The Virginia class submarine is a big boat that can sail in the vast ocean depths. But the AUKUS that is being designed in the UK for delivery to Australia is a giant that is said to be set to deploy in the South China Sea.

According to a report by the pro-AUKUS Australian Strategic Policy Institute, the AUKUS sub will have a displacement of more than 10,000 tonnes, making it thrice the size of our Collins-class subs and 3000 tonnes larger than the current US Virginia class attack submarine.

Australian Submarine Agency director-general Jonathan Mead claims the subs will have greater firepower, a more powerful reactor, more capability and they’ll be able to do more bespoke operations, including intelligence gathering, surveillance, strike warfare, special forces missions and dispatching uncrewed vessels, than our current in-service submarines.

As Darryl Kerrigan would say: “Tell him he’s dreamin.”

In seven — never mind 15 — years’ time, not only will China have further developed its quantum magnetic detection system, other detection methods we have not even heard of may well be deployed. As Brian Toohey has noted, the extremely hot water used by the nuclear reactor to heat Virginia class submarines’ steam engines has to be expelled from the hull. This leaves an infrared signature that can be detected from space.

Currently the Chinese are building the Great Underwater Wall to monitor submarine movements in the seas off China. In the South China Sea, the program aims to create a monitoring system of surface and underwater sensors that include passive sonar on the seafloor and remotely controlled underwater drones and surface vessels. Hydro-acoustic sensors are to be located on the seabed at depths of up to 3000 metres, while military bases on artificial islands are being built in the Spratley archipelago between the Philippines and Vietnam.

According to a report in the South China Morning Post, China already has powerful listening devices in two strategic seabed locations deep in the waters near Guam, America’s biggest military base in the Western Pacific.

The acoustic sensors — some of which have a listening range of more than 1000km — are said to be used for scientific research but security experts say they can also track the movement of submarines in the South China Sea and intercept underwater signals between the submarines and their command base.

The Australian submarines, if we ever get them, will not be armed with nuclear weapons, as US submarines are.

The Cold War argument for submarines armed with nuclear warheads is Mutually Assured Destruction, the belief that in the event of a surprise first strike by a nuclear-armed state, the undetected nuclear-armed submarines of the injured state would survive and return fire with their nuclear-armed missiles. As the submarines Australia is seeking to buy will not have nuclear weapons, they do not serve this purpose.

However, as part of the AUKUS agreement, HMAS Stirling in Western Australia, is set to host UK and US submarines from as early as 2027. This will add another Australian target in the event of a US-China war which could well be sparked by an event that is not relevant to Australia. Currently, the only reason China might have any interest in targeting Australia is because of our willingness to cede our sovereignty to the US and host US spy stations and military installations.

The views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.