In a world undergoing profound shifts toward multipolarity, the military escalation between Israel and Iran stands out as a clear indicator of the interplay between regional conflicts and the geopolitical interests of global powers.

This conflict is no longer merely a dispute between two neighbouring states in the Middle East; it has evolved into a complex arena where the ambitions of major powers such as the US, Russia and China intersect with the strategies of regional actors. Israel’s recent attacks on civilian targets in Iran, coupled with Iran’s response using drones, underscore the depth of this conflict and its impact on regional and international stability.

What we are witnessing today is not just a conventional military confrontation, but an expression of the reshaping of global power balances through military, intelligence and diplomatic tools. This article examines the history of the conflict, its geopolitical dimensions, and its effects on countries like Pakistan, with a particular focus on the critical support provided by China and Russia to Iran and its profound implications.

History of the conflict: from co-operation to enmity

Prior to 1979, relations between Israel and Iran were characterised by strategic co-operation under the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Iran was an unofficial ally of Israel, with both countries sharing mutual interests against Arab nationalism. Israel provided military and intelligence technology, while Iran supplied oil and logistical support, within the framework of a US strategy to counter Soviet influence.

With the Islamic Revolution and the establishment of the Islamic Republic, the relationship transformed into deep-seated hostility. Iran branded Israel a “Zionist usurping entity”, while Israel viewed Iran as an existential threat due to its advancing nuclear program and support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. This shift was not merely political, but ideological, paving the way for a prolonged conflict.

From a cold enmity to indirect clashes through proxies, the relationship has progressed to direct confrontations in recent years. Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities and Iran’s retaliatory drone attacks demonstrate both sides’ readiness to cross traditional red lines, reflecting an unprecedented escalation of tensions.

Geopolitical dimensions: intertwined alliances and interests

•  US support for Israel

The US remains Israel’s foremost supporter, providing extensive military and diplomatic aid to maintain its influence in the Middle East. This support bolsters Israel’s capabilities, but heightens the risk of escalation into a regional war.

• Chinese and Russian support for Iran

On the other side, Iran finds strategic allies in China and Russia, which enhance its resilience against Western pressure, a topic we will explore in detail below.

Chinese support for Iran: an economic and geopolitical strategy

In the context of the recent escalation between Israel and Iran, China has officially declared its support for Iran, a move that reaffirms its strategic commitment to this ally. These declarations have not been mere rhetoric; they have translated into tangible actions, with China sending two shipments of military aid to Tehran. According to reports, these shipments included advanced defensive equipment and military technologies that help Iran strengthen its capabilities in countering Israeli attacks. This military support is not merely tactical assistance, but an expression of China’s long-term vision of Iran as an ally that contributes to countering US influence in the region.

Iran at the heart of the Belt and Road Initiative

As a rising economic power, China views Iran as a vital partner within the Belt and Road Initiative, an ambitious plan to create a trade network connecting Asia, Europe and Africa. Iran’s geographic location makes it a critical link between Central Asia and the Gulf, enhancing its importance to Beijing. Iran is not just a geographic corridor, but an economic gateway that enables China to expand its commercial and investment influence in the region. For instance, China has invested billions of dollars in Iranian infrastructure, such as railway and port projects, to ensure the smooth flow of goods through this vital region.

China’s energy security

China heavily relies on Iran as a source of oil and gas, importing substantial quantities to meet the demands of its growing economy. Amid Western sanctions on Iran, China has seized the opportunity to strengthen ties with Tehran, offering economic support in exchange for long-term energy deals. This mutual dependence makes Iran’s stability a priority for Beijing, as any collapse or regime change in Iran could threaten China’s energy supplies and disrupt its economic plans.

Confrontation with the US

China’s support for Iran also fits into its strategic rivalry with the US. Beijing sees Iran as a bulwark against American hegemony, particularly in the Middle East, where Washington seeks to undermine the Iranian regime through sanctions and military pressure. By supporting Iran, China aims to weaken Western influence and bolster its position as an alternative power in the emerging global order. This support enables Iran to withstand pressure and sends a clear message to the US and its allies that China is prepared to play a larger role in regional affairs.

Impact on the current conflict

Chinese support enhances Iran’s military and economic capabilities, making it harder for Israel and the US to achieve their objectives of weakening Tehran. The military shipments, for example, may improve Iran’s air defence systems or boost its drone production capabilities, weapons that have proven effective in responding to Israeli attacks. Economically, Chinese support helps Iran endure sanctions, prolonging its resistance and solidifying its role as a resilient actor in this conflict.

Russian support for Iran: a defensive line against the West

In the context of the current escalation, Russia has sent one shipment of military aid to Iran, a step that underscores its commitment to supporting Tehran. According to sources, this aid includes advanced air defence systems, such as the S-300 or upgrades to existing systems, alongside co-operation in intelligence and military technology. This support strengthens Iran’s ability to protect its territory from Israeli attacks and reflects Russia’s desire to maintain Iran as a robust ally in the face of Western pressure.

Iran as a barrier against NATO

For Russia, supporting Iran is part of its strategy to counter Western influence, particularly the expansion of NATO toward its southern borders. Iran serves as a primary defensive line, preventing NATO’s reach into regions like the Caucasus and Central Asia, which are critical to Russia’s national security. If Iran were to collapse or align with the West, it would open the door for NATO to advance closer to Russia’s borders, posing a direct threat to Moscow.

Countering US hegemony

Like China, Russia seeks to challenge US dominance in the Middle East through its support for Iran. Iran serves as an effective tool for Russia to disrupt Western plans, whether through its nuclear program or its backing of militias opposed to US interests. This support contributes to creating a new balance of power that prevents the US and its allies from exerting full control over the region.

Impact on the conflict

Russian support provides Iran with significant defensive advantages, particularly against Israel’s technological superiority. Russian air defence systems, for instance, may make Israeli attacks more costly and less effective, enhancing Iran’s deterrence. Additionally, intelligence co-operation between the two countries helps Iran anticipate Israeli moves and respond more effectively.

Pakistan: Fears of geopolitical encirclement

As Iran’s neighbour, Pakistan monitors the escalation with caution due to its implications for national security. Relations between the two countries are strained by border issues in Balochistan, but Pakistan’s greater concern lies in the possibility of Iran becoming an Israeli ally, which could geopolitically encircle Pakistan, with India to the east and Iran to the west. Such a scenario would intensify pressure on Pakistan in Kashmir and Balochistan, pushing it to strengthen its alliance with China to counter these challenges.

The recent escalation: implications and risks

• Israeli attacks

Israel’s strikes on civilian targets in Iran reflect growing concern over Tehran’s military capabilities, particularly its drones and ballistic missiles. Targeting civilians aims to undermine Iranian morale and send a warning message.

• Iran’s response

Iran retaliated by launching over 100 drones, demonstrating its ability to respond forcefully. However, Israel’s success in intercepting most of them highlights the technological gap, which may push Iran to accelerate its co-operation with China and Russia.

The future of the conflict

The Israeli-Iranian conflict has become a mirror of global shifts toward multipolarity. Chinese and Russian support for Iran, including military shipments and China’s official declaration, strengthens Tehran’s resilience and positions it as a pivotal player in this conflict. Conversely, Western backing of Israel pushes the region toward greater risks. Diplomacy remains the optimal solution to contain the crisis and avert a full-scale war in a world that demands a delicate balance between power and stability.

The views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.