There’s a concept in political analysis known as the Overton Window. The concept holds that at any given time within mainstream society there is a range (i.e. window) of accepted political topics and arguments for discussion.

There was a time when, for example, the idea that we were in a climate emergency sat outside the window of discussion in Australia, which was dominated by a discourse of ecological conservation and recycling. Not so anymore. This article is an attempt to widen the Overton Window in Australia on the US-Australia alliance, to incorporate the idea that Australia needs to start seriously dialling back its long-standing strategic alliance with the US and asserting a rigorously independent foreign policy.

Some things are so ubiquitous in our lives or long-standing in our culture that the thought of doing away with them never really enters the conversation. Or if it does, it is quickly dismissed as unrealistic. Take alcohol, for example. Most of us have woken up after a few too many drinks and thought “Never again”. Beyond the hangover, alcohol does incredible societal harm. We all know and accept it, but there’s no concomitant public conversation doing the rounds about doing away with alcohol on a societal level, or even seriously suppressing it like we did with tobacco. We’re not even at the stage of labelling alcohol as cancer-causing yet, even though health professionals who know the harms are calling for us to do just that (they’re trying to expand the Overton Window). Alcohol is simply too ingrained in the culture.

I say this as an entrée into how I believe most Australians think about our strategic relationship to the US. Is US culture and technology fun, like Friday night knock-off drinks are? You bet. Does the US do really bad things like invade foreign countries under false pretences and start wars (with the support allies like us) that lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people? History says, yes. Does Donald Trump make it hard for even the most pro-American among us to feel good about America? Probably. Is the US in word and deed now openly supporting ethnic cleansing and genocide in Gaza? Absolutely.

So, like our relationship to alcohol, our relationship to the US is seriously two-headed. We consume its cultural and technological output rapaciously, while at the same time recognising that there is something deeply problematic about the US and its role in the world. What does this mean for Australia? Does any of the above mean we should seriously reconsider our strategic relationship with the US? Unfortunately, and just like our societal relationship to alcohol, I think most Australians would say no. And if you were to ask the Two-Party + Press Gallery + Defence Community class in Canberra, you’d be met with a resounding no. But why? Because China. Or so the story goes.

People, and nations, tend to think in packages. The package about Australia and its strategic (i.e. military) relationship to the US goes as follows: Australia is a hard-to-defend middle power stranded all alone in the ocean and open to invasion. We need a powerful friend to look after us. We have this in the US. We give the US what they want (military real estate and the Pine Gap facility) and they give us what we want (the ANZUS security umbrella and access to advanced military hardware). A war between China and the US is coming over Taiwan. China is a dictatorship with expansionist intent. We share values like freedom and democracy with the US. Therefore, we should stay in the US camp.

This is the strategic paradigm — what I call here the Canberra Consensus — that reigns supreme in Australia. It’s a paradigm that draws strength from our addiction to US culture and technology. I’m typing this article on a US-made computer, using US software. The US has become part of the furniture. Part of the cultural air we breathe. Too big to fail.

But things are changing. In June, Lowy Institute polling conducted in March revealed plummeting views about the US among Australians. Sixty-four percent of Australians now have little or no trust in the US to act responsibly in the world, up from 44% in 2024. Despite this, a whopping 80% of Australians said the US alliance was “very” or “fairly” important for Australia’s security, down only three points from 83% in 2024.

What does this tell us? It tells us that for now, the Canberra Consensus is holding firm and that Australians are prepared to put US global behaviour in a separate intellectual basket from the strategic alliance. Perhaps there’s a belief — or a hope — that Trumpian US is a blip on the long-term alliance radar. I’m not so sure – Americans voted for Trump 2.0 knowing exactly what they were buying. He is a manifestation of a toxic America, not the cause of it. Furthermore, while Trump is no doubt a unique figure in the US political system, there’s no guarantee that future presidential candidates won’t replicate core aspects of his model to ride the America First wave.

Blip or not, Australians need to connect the intellectual dots between the genocide in Gaza and our strategic alliance with the US. The US Government’s de facto support for genocide and ethnic cleansing in Gaza calls for a radical reimagining of the Canberra Consensus. The whole “shared values” bit just doesn’t work anymore. Not even close. It’s time for a new narrative. It’s time to use our middle power agency more assertively. The Albanese Government’s recent decision to break with the US around recognition for a Palestinian state is a positive step in that direction. But we need to expand the Overton Window wider, to start seriously canvassing a dialling back of the US-Australia strategic alliance. Go on, tell me I’m dreaming.

The views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.