Anthony Albanese is about to pour more than $12 billion into a new AUKUS submarine base in Perth.

At the very same time, Europe is moving in the opposite direction and actively diversifying away from American weapons systems.

Across Europe, allies are recalibrating their defence posturing in light of the Trump presidency’s unreliability and open flirtations with Russia. They’re diversifying away from US weapons systems, reinvesting in local industries, and planning for a future where Washington can’t be counted on. Denmark has just announced it will buy Franco-Italian air defence systems, Spain is expanding its European fighter fleet, Portugal is turning to Brazil, and Poland is partnering with South Korea. The EU has even set explicit targets to cut dependence on third-country weapons systems.

Australia, meanwhile, is doing the opposite. We’re blindly shovelling hundreds of billions of dollars into AUKUS, tying our defence strategy to a single platform that won’t arrive for decades, if ever. And we’re relying on an “ally” whose politics are volatile at best and hostile at worst.

The contrast couldn’t be starker.

Serious analysts including Allan Behm, Hugh White and Sam Roggeveen have all argued AUKUS is shaping up as a dud – more political theatre than sound defence strategy. The reasons are sobering:

1. Strategic volatility. The US is no longer a reliable ally. Donald Trump has said he would “encourage” Russia to attack NATO allies deemed “delinquent”. Betting our national security on the steadiness of American politics is folly.
2. Technological obsolescence. Submarines may no longer be survivable in a future of quantum sensing, AI-driven surveillance and autonomous systems. Pouring money into yesterday’s systems isn’t strategy, it’s blind nostalgia.
3. Budgetary gravity. AUKUS is already consuming the defence budget, crowding out investment in important and urgent capabilities we need now: long-range strike capabilities, drones, missile defences, and hardened northern bases. Every extra dollar put into AUKUS is a dollar not building urgently needed resilience.

Let’s be clear, Europe isn’t abandoning the US. But it’s actively hedging its bets. Australia should be too. Instead, our leaders are treating AUKUS as a sacred cow, clinging to a lazy Cold War reflex that “the US will save us”.

The uncomfortable truth is that AUKUS won’t make Australia safer. It will make us more dependent on an erratic partner we can’t control, and less agile in responding to the real threats we face. Ditching AUKUS will be politically painful, but doubling down on a dud will be a strategic catastrophe.

The views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.