A group of high-profile Australians, including Admiral Chris Barrie, have released a critical new foreign policy plan in the wake of climate change.

For too long, government policy processes have left climate action to energy or environment ministries. That separation is no longer viable. Climate change is an existential threat that demands a whole-of-government — and whole-of-foreign-policy — response.

Such a response should recognise that climate disruption is a key expression of the breakdown of the Earth’s complex physical-biological systems and of the human systems which rely on them.

Decision-makers should recognise that climate change is only one among a number of existential threats which now confront humanity as a result of our unsustainable management of the planet, all of which must be addressed, though climate arguably requires the most urgent action.

“Planetary boundaries” define "a safe operating space for humanity”, and crossing these limits will result in abrupt or irreversible environmental changes with serious consequences for humankind. The nine planetary boundaries identified are: climate change, change in biosphere integrity, stratospheric ozone depletion, ocean acidification, biogeochemical flows (phosphorus and nitrogen cycles), land-system change, freshwater use, atmospheric aerosol loading (microscopic particles in the atmosphere that affect climate and living organisms) and introduction of novel entities such as plastics.

Researchers in September 2023, in the “first scientific health check for the entire planet”, found that six out of nine planetary boundaries had been broken because of human-caused pollution and destruction of the natural world. And in September 2024, researchers announced that a seventh boundary — ocean acidification — is on the brink of being breached.

Carbon dioxide levels are already 20% above the planetary boundary, which threatens humanity’s future. “Let me just make one point very clear: 2.7°C is without any doubt a disaster. It’s a point we haven’t seen for the past five million years,” says Professor Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute. He adds that “there’s no evidence that we can support humanity as we know it on a 2.7°C planet”.

Climate change is already reshaping global systems of production, trade, economics and governance, and it poses a direct threat to Australians’ security and economic prosperity, and regional stability. The greatest threat to regional security will be the inability of nations in the Indo-Pacific to cope with climate impacts on their food systems and their health and on coastlines and river basins.

The nature of the climate threat reinforces the leading role governments must play in assessing the risks, planning and co-ordinating the economic transformation and building global climate-security co-operation to do so.

In the context of Trump#2 and geopolitical upheaval, Australia’s current security frame — “America first, Earth last” — needs to be abandoned. With former prime ministers and foreign ministers providing stinging critiques of Australia’s current, bi-partisan security policy, there is an opportunity to put climate at the centre of a new security discourse.

“The heat is on”, a recent report from the Australian Peace and Security Forum**,** notes that Australia “is yet to embed climate security meaningfully into its core security frameworks”.

The Australia Institute’s Emma Shortis says that: “Human security — real, lasting security — means addressing inequality, building prosperity, acting on climate and protecting the environment on which we depend. Australia has considerable power and agency, more than enough to pursue this kind of security. We have the 13th largest economy in the world. When that world is on fire, we could choose to focus on fighting the flames instead of fanning them.”

A climate-first policy would focus on the need to protect all people from climate breakdown, and a commitment to deep co-operation with nations that prioritise climate disruption risks with climate-focused agreements on tax, trade, technology, finance, equity and the like.

Australia should embed climate action across diplomatic, trade, investment and security strategies. Finance analyst Alan Kohler notes: “The US isn’t even a comprehensible ally, let alone a reliable one, or a safe place to invest… Australia needs to rethink its relationship with the United States.” He adds that Australia has done quite well maintaining a wary, non-trusting trade relationship with China, and now “we now need a wary, non-trusting security alliance with the US, if that’s even possible”.

Professor Mark Beeson, from the University of Technology Sydney, says that when global governance is failing, and being actively undermined by the Trump regime, “it is even more important that other countries try to fill the void, even if this means co-operating with the unlikeliest of partners. Australia and China really could offer a different approach to climate change mitigation while simultaneously defusing tensions in the Indo-Pacific and demonstrating that resistance to the Trump agenda really is possible.”

The world is unprepared for the cascading and compounding effects of climate disruption: population displacement, food insecurity, economic destabilisation, and rising geopolitical tensions. These changes are already altering global power dynamics, stranding assets, disrupting capital flows and exacerbating inequity.

To protect Australia’s national interest and maintain our regional leadership in the Indo-Pacific, we must reposition climate as a strategic foreign policy priority.

A climate-first approach should consider the following key questions in developing a 21st-century foreign policy:

• • Placing climate security and co-operation above the desire of other nations for geopolitical confrontation.
    • Diplomatic leadership in high-ambition alliances, such as agreements to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and international financing for coal, oil, and gas projects; to phase out the fossil fuel economy; and for a regional economic climate mobilisation.
    • Understanding the risks with mandated and regular climate-related security risk and fragility assessments, with the analysis process and outcomes shared transparently within Australia and with regional partners.
      • Initiate/support forums to discuss planetary overshoot scenarios and rapid response measures, including emergency cooling research and governance.
    • Mandatory climate risk disclosure and integration in international financial institutions including the World Bank, IMF, development banks and multilateral organisations.
    • Strengthening the role of international law and reasserting the importance of a human-rights-focused “rules-based order”, for example, by recognising ecocide and environmental crimes under that law.
    • Full integration of climate risk into defence and security planning, humanitarian response, and conflict prevention efforts.
      • Partner with nations in the region to deploy a monitoring system to identify potential food insecurity hotspots, and fund enhancement of food, supply chain and energy resilience in the region.
    • Support for vulnerable and frontline nations.

• Champion the creation and strengthening of international mechanisms to support climate-vulnerable countries.

• Support Australia’s development partners to achieve their climate objectives and increase climate finance to support developing nations and facilitate their preparedness and prevention plans.

• • Ensure that transitions to zero emission economies are equitable and do not entrench existing inequalities.
    • Lead in the establishment of international legal frameworks to address climate displacement and migration.

• Economic and technology cooperation

  • Climate-conditioned trade and investment which ties trade deals, foreign aid and investment flows to climate commitments; and may include border adjustment mechanisms, such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
  • Promote the rapid adoption of renewable energy in the region and enhance green energy and technology transfer and co-operation and partnerships for development of climate solutions.

Is this new climate-focused security emphasis possible? It needs to be, for humanity to have a future.

The Australian Security Leaders Climate Group executive committee is: 

Admiral Chris Barrie AC, former Chief of the Defence Force (Retd); Cheryl Durrant, former Director of Preparedness and Mobilisation, Australian Department of Defence; Colonel Neil Greet, Australian Army (Retd) Major Michael Thomas, Australian Army (Retd) Jane Holloway, former Systems Analyst, Australian Department of Defence Ian Dunlop, former Chair of the Australian Coal Association

The views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.