Trump’s record suggests that meetings with him frequently fail. Instead, Albanese has an important agenda to pursue at the UN in New York, and when dealing with the US better outcomes are more likely if Australia develops its own policies in its own interests.

According to much of the media, sooled on by the Opposition, whether Albanese’s visit to America this week is a success is almost entirely dependent on whether he gains a meeting with Trump and how that meeting goes.

Now, according to the latest reports, this meeting with Trump in the Oval Office is not going to occur. But frankly this media fascination with Trump entirely ignores:

1. the importance of the meetings Albanese is scheduled to attend at New York this week, and
2. whether Australia would achieve anything by a meeting at this time with Trump.

Issues to be pursued in New York

Palestine

Clearly ending the war in Gaza should be a priority. On Sunday (New York time), Australia joined with key allies, the UK and Canada, in formally recognising the State of Palestine. On Tuesday, Albanese will lead the Australian delegation at a high-level conference, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to further pursue a two-state solution.

Unfortunately, Israel, supported by the US, is opposed to this two-state solution. Instead, Israel is pursuing a campaign of genocide against the Palestinians and has made it plain that it will never accept a Palestinian state. Indeed, all the signs are that Israel, under Netanyahu, intends to occupy all the territory “from the river to the sea” forever.

Why the Trump Administration has effectively walked away from the previous US support for a two-state solution is a matter for conjecture. However, the result is that on this issue the US has now almost completely isolated itself from the rest of the world.

Climate Change

Climate change is now considered by almost all nations (except the US under Trump) to be the most important threat to the future of the planet and our well-being.

Australia is bidding to host the Cop31 climate talks next year. Hosting these talks would help establish Australia’s credentials and reputation internationally. It would also help enormously in our relations with our other Pacific neighbours.

Albanese’s address to the UN and his expected meeting with the Turkish President in New York will be very important if Australia is to succeed in winning the hosting rights to this climate change summit next year.

Other issues to be pursued at the UN

Australia is creating a world-first by legislating to protect children from the potential harmful effects of social media by restricting the access of children under the age of 16. These laws are judged so important by other countries that they will be discussed at a forum that Albanese is attending with European President Ursula von der Leyden while in New York.

Finally, it can be expected that a meeting around the UN will discuss the war in Ukraine. Australia has been a supporter of Ukraine and has provided assistance. The meetings in New York will provide an opportunity for Albanese to better coordinate Australia’s efforts with our allies.

In sum, Albanese’s time at the UN in New York will be time well spent in Australia’s interests, whatever the ignorant media and the Opposition may say.

What could a meeting with Trump have achieved?

It seems that Albanese is likely to meet Trump briefly for the first time at a reception that Trump will be hosting near the UN on Tuesday (US time).

The media and the Opposition are unlikely to regard shaking Trump’s hand at this reception as being sufficient. They want a meeting in the Oval Office.

But the fact of such a meeting is not important. What matters are the results achieved with or without a meeting, and here there are reasons for doubting that a meeting with Trump in the Oval Office would serve Australia’s interests.

First, Trump’s record as judged by his meetings with the leaders of other governments is not good.

For example, Trump told the world that he could bring peace to Ukraine within 24 hours after he became president. Eight months later he has achieved nothing. Although he rolled out the red carpet for Putin, the fighting is as fierce as ever.

However, despite Trump meeting the major NATO countries’ heads of government, the US is no longer providing any assistance. Instead, Trump is now selling weapons to the Ukraine’s European allies who then pass them on to the Ukraine. Thus, under Trump the US is profiting from the war, but doing nothing to help Ukraine and end the war.

In Asia, India, as a member of the Quad, has been one of America’s most important allies, but no longer. Trump treated Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, so badly over tariffs, that India has drawn away from the US and has become closer to China. Similarly, almost all other national leaders who have met with Trump in the hope of winning lower tariffs have come away disappointed.

At present, Australia is looking to have the lowest US tariffs, and maybe we are better off if we keep our distance. Indeed, the low US tariffs we have are not necessarily a disadvantage, as they give us a comparative advantage relative to other countries seeking to export to the US.

The other critical issue in Australia’s bilateral relationship with the US at present is AUKUS. Many commentators worry that we will not get the US nuclear submarines as promised, and that Trump will walk away from that deal, unless we are suitably subservient.

Realistically, however, Australia will never get the Virginia nuclear submarines as promised, or at least not under acceptable terms. It is just question of when, not whether, the Americans come clean about this and tell us.

As has been amply documented elsewhere, the US cannot meet its production targets, and its fleet of nuclear submarines will be too small by a substantial margin when the AUKUS agreement says that three Virginias are due to be handed over to Australia.

Either the US will welch on the AUKUS deal, or they will insist that any submarines provided by the US to Australia should be tasked by the US and effectively under US command. That way, the US will not actually experience any reduction in its naval power, and Trump will enjoy the deal where Australia pays for and crews what is effectively part of the US navy.

Furthermore, the second-hand Virginia submarines that Australia has contracted to buy from the US are too big and too expensive. Instead, we could and should buy cheaper submarines elsewhere, resulting in a bigger and more suitable fleet that would be easier for us to crew. And, most importantly, this fleet would be under Australian command.

Thus, if Trump welches on the AUKUS deal to sell Australia a few nuclear submarines we should be thankful, and the sooner the better. Moreover, that would not end Australia’s alliance with America, as the bases that Australia is providing are critical to the US defence strategy.

In sum, the US cannot afford to walk away from Australia whatever the relationship between Albanese and Trump. It wants those bases.

The views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.