One of the most basic axioms in Australian politics is that voters support rising house prices. John Howard expressed this axiom when he infamously remarked that no one had ever told him “I’m angry with you for letting the value of my house increase”.

Housing Minister Clare O’Neil did the same, commenting, during the 2025 federal election campaign that her government was “not trying to bring down house prices” but rather achieve “sustainable price growth”.

There is a subtle difference between Howard’s bold pronouncement and O’Neil’s more measured comments, which reflect a shift in voter sentiment that we detected in our recent report Housing and the 2025 Federal Election. While most continue to benefit from rising prices, voters are far more wary of endorsing house-price growth and some are outright angry. This emerging divide reflects the tricky politics of the housing crisis.

Surveying more than 1000 voters on their housing experiences and views as part of the Australian Co-operative Election Survey, our report reveals an emerging disenchantment with Australia’s home ownership society and the need for a new housing policy paradigm.

A disenchanted ‘generation rent’

Voters were asked to what extent they agreed that house prices going up is generally a good thing. Of the entire sample, 41% disagreed, while a further 33% were neutral (i.e. neither agreed nor disagreed). In contrast, only 22% agreed that increasing house prices is a positive.

Renters and younger voters were, unsurprisingly, the most likely to disagree: three-fifths of private renters were opposed, as were more than half of those aged 18-34. For these overlapping groups, rising prices are placing home ownership increasingly out of reach. The extent of appreciation means that there may be no such thing as “sustainable price growth”.

Voters were also asked to what extent they agreed it was still possible to work hard, save and buy a home. Half of all voters agreed, but just over a quarter disagreed, with around a quarter neither or unsure. Once again, renters and young people were the most sceptical: nearly one-third of young people and two-fifths of renters disagreed with the statement.

There were certainly many who retained faith in the “Australian dream” – 40% of young people and 37% of renters believed it was still possible. But for many others the path to home ownership feels far from assured. The combination of rising house prices and rising rents is making home ownership increasingly contingent on intergenerational wealth transfers — cash or risk-sharing from the “bank of mum and dad” — for those fortunate enough.

Ambivalent owners

Owners were generally more optimistic about the accessibility of home ownership in contemporary Australian society. More than 60% of outright owners and property investors believed that working and saving was still enough to buy a home. Around half of mortgagees agreed, but more than a quarter disagreed. One’s position on the “property ladder” seems to be closely connected to one’s confidence in the ladder’s accessibility.

But even existing owners were uncomfortable with rising prices. Both outright owners and those with mortgages were more likely to disagree than agree that rising prices are generally a good thing (34% disagree and 27% agree in both cases). A substantial number could neither agree nor disagree, suggesting both uncertainty and ambivalence.

Existing owners might want to see the price of their own property rise. Those with mortgages might be concerned about negative equity. Others may wish to use capital gains to trade up in the housing market, fund retirement or aged care, or help their children buy a home. Nevertheless, there is significant unease with the general level of house price inflation as a broader social issue.

It will come as no surprise that those who own investment properties — where capital gains are vital — were the most likely to agree that increasing house price was good thing (43%), with a further third neutral.

Confronting the politics of house prices

Rising house prices pose a tricky political issue for Australian Governments. While they might feel discomfort, a majority continue to benefit, with around two-thirds of households being mortgagees or outright owners. For many recent buyers with large mortgages, declining house prices could spell disaster. Further, intergenerational wealth transfers might enlarge the constituency for rising prices, if young renters with access to parental housing wealth see it as the only way to buy a home. And, of course, politicians might also consider their own property interests.

Yet, our results suggest that voters are becoming impatient with inaction – not only those who are “locked out” of home ownership but also home owners themselves. Despite their landslide election victory, we found that just 16% of voters were satisfied with Labor’s performance on housing, and just 37% of Labor voters.

The Albanese Government’s most recent response to the housing crisis has been the 5% Deposit Scheme – expanding eligibility to all first home buyers, removing the cap on places and raising property price limits. Like its smaller Help to Buy shared equity scheme, it is a way to absorb some of the financial risk that households face, but critics argue that it will further raise house prices.

More ambitious policies will be needed. Fortunately, we found widespread support for more ambition, with support for investing in public/social housing (64%) and limiting rent increases for private renters (57%). The latter would relieve some pressure from households spending longer periods of time in the private rental market. While less popular (46% support), reducing tax breaks for property investors is another policy that could help reduce property prices. Reducing tax breaks for owner-occupiers would go even further, but the politics is far more challenging, with two-thirds of households living in their own "tax haven".

House price growth is not inevitable. Climate change is already wiping billions off home values. As the values of some homes rise while others fall, the combination of climate change and asset inflation could dramatically worsen inequality. Our report suggests Australians are already nervous that the old Australian dream is fading. We will need much bolder action and a new social contract to manage the challenges that are coming.

The views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.