After encouraging universities to expand overseas enrolments, the government has overseen a sharp fall in student visa approval rates – leaving institutions uncertain and applicants frustrated.

Having tightened policy on overseas students for 18 months, the Government signalled mid-2025, that it would help public universities to grow overseas student numbers through a higher student planning level for 2026 as well as reduced risk ratings for public universities.

That should have meant a higher visa grant rate. Universities responded by boosting offshore recruitment activity in both September and October. But with a cranking up of the offshore student visa refusal rate in October, many universities will be confused about what is happening.

In September and October 2025, offshore student applications ceased declining and increased strongly compared to the same months in 2024.

Offshore student applications in October 2025 were 22,905 compared to 19,873 in October 2024. September 2025 offshore applications were 19,975 compared to 14,963 in September 2024. The increase in both months was driven largely by the higher education sector, although the VET sector was also up in October 2025 compared to the previous year.

From a source country perspective, the major drivers of the increase in offshore applications were India, Nepal and Bangladesh. China and Vietnam have remained relatively flat. Smaller increases were evident from Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

Having encouraged the increase in applications, the offshore grant rate in October 2025 fell to 77.4 per cent compared to 83.6 per cent in October 2024. Given the higher non-refundable visa application charge, that will be making many applicants angry. But it will be making universities nervous as they would be budgeting for an increase in tuition revenue nervous.

The grant rate for China surprisingly fell from 93.7 per cent in October 2024 to 84.5 per cent in October 2025. That may reflect the move for China from EL1 to EL2 in the risk rating system. But that would contradict the fact the grant rate for India also fell from 64.9 per cent in October 2024 to 52.1 per cent in October 2025 (India’s risk rating has been reduced). Other grant rates to fall significantly included Sri Lanka which fell from 92 per cent to 84.3 per cent and Indonesia which fell from 88.3 per cent to 72.5 per cent.

The grant rates remained relatively stable for Nepal (80 per cent) the Philippines at 61 per cent and Bangladesh at around 95 per cent. Grant rates increased significantly for Vietnam (up from 72.4 per cent to 88 per cent) and Bhutan (up from 74.5 per cent to 95.7 per cent).

In October 2025, only 12,858 offshore student visas were granted compared to 15,012 in October 2024, 19,099 in October 2023 and 22,984 in October 2022. It is not clear how much of this may be due to the building up of a larger backlog of offshore applications that may get processed in November and December. Offshore grants in 2025 remain well below those in the three previous years. These will need to increase significantly to reach the student planning levels announced by the Minister for Education, particularly for 2026.

Offshore student grants for China fell from 5,728 in October 2024 to 1,645 in October 2025. That is an extraordinary decline and suggests a large build up in the on-hand caseload for China as the refusal rate did not increase sufficiently. There was also a fall in offshore student visa grants for India (from 2,095 in October 2024 to 1,716 in October 2025) but a large increase in grants for Nepal (from 635 in October 2024 to 1,808 in October 2025).

The Government appears to be sending mixed messages to the international education industry, particularly to public universities.

It is possible that October 2025 was just an aberration in terms of grant rates and grant numbers. But it may also be the case that the government (or at least the immigration minister) is having second thoughts about the education minister’s idea of boosting student numbers and the consequent implications for both net migration as well as for the rising pressure on permanent migration program places.

If that is the case, it highlights the problems that can arise from not having a long-term immigration plan such as the one that has been developed by Canada.