From the erosion of Western authority to Australia’s election result, 2025 exposed deep shifts in global power, alliance politics and the limits of domestic reform.

Two events stood out in 2025. Internationally the first was the continuing eclipse and decline of western leadership. The second was a surprisingly strong result for the Albanese government in the May election.

In the West and particularly in conservative circles we have viewed China through a Cold War and ideological lens. Conservatives assert that China is dominated by Marxism-Leninism. Invariably it is the “communist” government of China. They want us to believe that there is a contest in the world between democracy and autocracy and democracy is sure to win. In our ignorance and arrogance, we assume the Chinese people will become card carrying democrats like ourselves.

We now must admit that we are profoundly wrong.

The jaundiced view of the world is fed by the colonisation of Australia’s intelligence and security services. Overwhelmingly the Five Eyes to which Australia is a member receives 90 per cent of its input from America and particularly the CIA. It is not surprising that our government and the media are highly influenced by the propaganda coming out of Washington, particularly as regards China.

Kishore Mahbubani has pointed out that China’s success is rooted in centuries of Chinese history, Confucianism meritocracy and competence. China has become a case study in effective governance. Meritocracy not ideology is driving China.

China’s economic success was outlined recently by Alan Kohler in the ABC. He said “China now dominates in every technology that defines the modern world. China leads in seven out of eight AI categories, 13 out of 13 advanced materials and manufacturing technologies, in all seven categories of defence space robotics and transportation, nine out of 10 in energy and environment and five out of nine in biotechnology, genes and vaccines.

“China’s global technology ascendancy is pretty much total, yet it has only half the number of billionaires as the US and that number grew this year but only half as much.”

Whilst China is far from democratic at least in our terms, Chinese people have very high levels of trust in their government. Surveys like the Edelman Trust Barometer and World Values Survey consistently show high (often 80-90 per cent +) trust in China’s national government, often highest globally. Delivering strong economic growth and improving living conditions is a primary reason for high trust.

In contrast the US now shows some of the same signs of decay, that we saw in the declining years of the USSR – falling life expectancy, violence, gross inequality and a debilitating drug problem. More Americans have died of fentanyl overdoses than were killed in three major wars, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

And it is not just social and economic decay. The US is turning its back on the liberal international world that it led after WW2. The US and its allies including Australia have grievously lost moral credibility for support of genocide in Gaza.

As a result, we see a new global order emerging – China, Russia, India, Iran, Turkey, South Africa and Brazil.

The Australian election result in this year gave a surprisingly good result in terms of seats for the ALP. Anthony Albanese was struck by a lucky rainbow twice, first Scott Morrison and then Peter Dutton with Donald Trump circulating in the background.

Despite that good luck with 62 per cent of the seats the ALP polled only 35 per cent of first preference votes. This was one of the lowest first preferences for the ALP in history.

Despite the large majority, caution continues with the new government particularly transparency in government. The scourge of lobbyists continues unchecked. The ICAC is a lame duck in the battle against corruption. A Parliamentary Committee report on human rights and a possible Human Rights Act has been buried. Freedom of information and protection of whistleblowers have run into the sand. Mark Dreyfus has left a very disappointing legacy.

Power reveals what people are really like. It has revealed a great deal about the Albanese government. It is becoming notorious for what it is NOT doing rather than what it is achieving.

The year in prospect with the US and climate change

Our dangerous ally is proving even more unreliable and dangerous. Jeffrey Sachs has recently pointed out that the US 2025 National Security Strategy “is a doctrine of power over law, coercion over consent, and dominance over diplomacy. American security will not be strengthened by acting like a bully. It will be weakened—structurally, morally, and strategically. A great power that frightens its allies, coerces its neighbours, and disregards international rules ultimately isolates itself.”

A YouGov poll in October showed that only 8 per cent of Australians agree with the view of Richard Marles that we ‘share values’ with the US, including ‘democracy and the rule of law”.

We must carefully and diplomatically disengage from the suffocating and dangerous embrace of the United States and particularly AUKUS.

We can’t have both AUKUS and a self-reliant defence capability. AUKUS, costing at least $360 billion is 60 times our annual defence budget. The arithmetic is very clear. We cannot fund AUKUS to oblige the US and have a self-reliant Australian defence posture at the same time.

And Anthony Albanese is dreaming if he believes that building a few submarines in Adelaide will add to employment like the now shuttered car manufacturing industry in SA.

The defence debate is invariably about AUKUS and submarines. What we ignore is the considerable defence capability we have in the Royal Australian Air Force. As Robert Macklin has set out in What about the RAAF in the AUKUS equation:

“our RAAF fighting power now consists of 24 Super Hornets, 72 of the latest F35s, the spearhead of the force with 28 more to come, 11 Growlers based on a Super Hornet digital architecture with a purpose built penetrating warfare system. This allows it to go to a forward area of the air fight and from there to disable the enemy’s weaponry in the battle space. The Growlers don’t just protect themselves and its accompanying aircraft, they control the electronic warfare over the entire battlefield including naval auxiliaries. In addition, there are six Boeing Wedgetail early warning and control aircraft. For the first time in our history, we could fight a battle by ourselves a great distance from our shores”

Our future will be determined by climate change more than any other issue. But we fail to take resolute action in the face of the grave situation we face. We have seen portents of the future in recent cyclones, floods, heat waves and fires in Australia.

A new report from the United Nations Environment Programme found that “if we choose to stay on the current path, powering our economies with fossil fuels, extracting virgin resources, destroying nature, polluting the environment, the damages will stack up with other likely consequences of inaction including Amazon forest dieback and ice sheet collapse along with the loss of hundreds of millions more hectares of natural lands.” The Report also projects that “global food availability will fall if the climate crisis is not addressed, and that increased air pollution will cause an additional million premature deaths per year.”

We are failing time and time again to address the looming climate disaster. One feature will be the mass movement of people on a scale we have never contemplated.