China and India are set to account for more than 40 per cent of global GDP growth in 2026, with the Asia-Pacific region responsible for nearly 60 per cent. The data confirms a long-term shift in economic power that Australia’s politics and media remain slow to recognise.

There can be no clearer indication of just how rapidly our world is changing, than it being projected that China and India together will account for 43.6 per cent of global extra GDP growth in 2026. The Asia-Pacific region as a whole will contribute nearly 60 per cent of total global GDP extra capacity.

These percentages are extrapolated by Visual Capitalist (partial paywall) from forecast data of the International Monetary Fund.

Despite a slower growth rate compared to previous decades – predicted to be 4.2 per cent in 2026 – China’s sheer economic size will still make it the single biggest driver of global expansion. At 26.6 per cent China will power more than a quarter of the world’s GDP growth.

China’s contribution will be followed by India, with a faster growth rate (6.2 per cent) though from a lower base, which will be responsible for 17 per cent of global economic growth.

The US, projected to grow at 2.1 per cent, will represent just 9.9 per cent of global expansion.

It is interesting to compare GDP Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), indicating the value of what goods and services can be purchased in each nation, this being the most accurate measure of wealth, the reason it is used by most economists. 

China has moved significantly to the front, with a GDP (PPP) of $41,015.8 billion, compared to the US $30,615.7 billion, with India, in third place at $17,714.2 billion. 

Given the substantially faster growth of China than the US, that gap will quickly widen, while that between the US and India will narrow.

There is then a substantial drop to Indonesia, growing at 4.9 per cent, with a GDP (PPP) of $5,015.8 billion, contributing 3.8 per cent of global growth. 

The remaining major contributors to growth will be Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Vietnam, Brazil and Nigeria. That list will no doubt come as a shock to many, as it includes no other western countries, outside the US.

To find the first other western country we need to drop down to 15th and 16th places where respectively Germany and the UK will each contribute 0.9 per cent to the growing world economy. Outside the top 10, they follow Bangladesh, the Philippines, Russian Federation and Poland. Australia ranks 29th, a projected growth rate of 2.1 per cent meaning we will be responsible for 0.6 per cent of global growth. 

Europe’s contribution to global growth is projected to be 9.5 per cent , spread across Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and other economies. Slower population growth, increased energy costs, and aging demographics will continue to weigh heavily on Europe’s economic expansion.

When combined, the western powerhouses, the US and the EU, will account for just 16 per cent of total global growth – the centre of economic momentum continues to move eastward, especially toward emerging markets.

From a regional perspective, the Asia-Pacific region massively dominates projected global growth, holding a 59.4 per cent share, with Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and other economies playing a significant role, alongside dominant China and India. That figure appears truly astonishing, yet represents the return of this region to being the world economic powerhouse, something which it has been for most of the past 2,000 years, the past 200 years being the exception – when led by the British, western powers drained these economies, particularly those of India, then China. 

North America will contribute 11.4 per cent of global growth, followed by Europe. Africa, hosting most of the world’s fastest growing economies, though from a very low base, will account for 7.7 per cent of growth, led by Nigeria, Egypt, and Ethiopia. The Middle East will be responsible for 6.4 per cent of global growth, while South and Central America will contribute 4.4 per cent. 

Asia has already clearly become the locus of the world economy. China now represents 14.6 per cent of world exports, far outstripping the US at 8.4 per cent, with the former growing at 6 per cent the past year compared to the latter’s 2 per cent. Then to China, one can add in the Hong Kong SAR with another 2.65 per cent with a rocketing growth rate of 12 per cent.

Trade dominance by China has exploded across the world between 2000 and 2025, at the expense of the US and EU. China is now the major trading partner of over 120 nations, and with the US under Trump putting up the shutters, that dominance can be expected to grow.

Projections have four of the world’s seven largest economies in 2040 being in Asia; China, India, Japan and Indonesia.

Clearly, this all ought to be good news for Australia, with Asia continuing to drive growth. All we need to do is buy each of our politicians an atlas, while educating our myopic mainstream legacy media.