The global rise of authoritarianism is weakening climate governance just as warming accelerates and tipping points draw near. This failure now poses a direct threat to our future.

Authoritarianism is stalking nations and global institutions, often allied with climate scepticism and denial. This has weakened climate governance, most notably in the United States. In Russia and the Middle East oil and gas producers, climate denial-and-delay and authoritarianism co-mingle.  And climate barely rated a mention at Davos this year.

China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, is a complex contradiction. China produces over 80 per cent of the world’s solar panels, 60-70 per cent of wind turbines, and three-quarters of energy storage batteries, and accounted for approximately 60 per cent of all new global renewable energy capacity installed globally in 2024.

Last year, China added more new capacity across all energy technologies than India’s total capacity as of the end of 2024, and the generation capacity China has added since the end of 2021 is larger than the entire US energy system. Renewables lead the growth in energy supply in China, but 78 gigawatts of new coal was also added in 2025. Oil production is projected to be flat to 2050, but gas will increase more than 60 per cent from 2020 to 2050, while coal use will remain high till 2030 then decline sharply to about 30-40 per cent of current levels by 2050.

Thirty-two fossil fuel companies were responsible for half of the global carbon dioxide emissions in 2024 and state-owned fossil fuel producers made up 17 of the top 20 emitters. All 17 are controlled by countries, in the main authoritarian, that oppose a proposed fossil-fuel phaseout.

All of this is very challenging and has direct implications for climate action. Yet the rise of authoritarianism means the globalisation cargo cult is on the wane. The World Trade Organization was no match for Trump’s tariff assault. These abrupt changes open up some possibilities.

The era of neo-liberalism and economic globalisation has eroded democratic politics. Now, the rise in nationalist politics has brought down the curtain on unfettered globalisation and the illusions that global institutions (such as the IMF, World Bank and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, for example) have delivered on their promises. There have been 30 global climate policy-making COP conferences since 1995 – where petrostates have veto power – and the rate of warming has just accelerated by half.

Many nations had abandoned the right to determine their economic future and handed huge power to global corporations, facilitated tax avoidance structures, failed to regulate the finance sector and enabled institutions such as the World Trade Organization.

Global governance organisations have been hypocritical and selective in wielding power. Neo-liberalism’s fetish with market efficiency, deregulation and lower taxes has weakened the role of governments, and produced an unprecedented redistribution of wealth to the elites at the expense of everyone else. This has been the major breeding ground for political resentment amongst the working poor, and for the rise of authoritarianism.

It is now clear that, as bankers and economists such as Ross Garnaut and Nicholas Stern and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney have recognised, the inability of markets to fully assess the risks of, and respond adequately to, the threat of climate collapse is the greatest market failure in history. Governments must take the lead in correcting this huge economic distortion. There is an opportunity for governments to assert the right, and necessity, of their role in defending our future by courageous leadership and incisive interventions, before it is too late.

By abandoning failed global mechanisms and coercive controls, there is a new chance for nations to forge bilateral and regional agreements on climate action and other issues that reflect much higher ambition, rather than lowest-common-denominator compromises. The Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney referred directly to this moment for middle powers in his Davos speech.

Like-minded countries can make real progress on climate mitigation by putting a climate focus on trade and security arrangements. Actions such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in Europe, and proposals for a climate-first foreign policy, as proposed by the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLCG), are examples. So, too, is the growing movement for a high-ambition fossil-fuel phase-out alliance amongst like-minded nations, which sprung from the failure of COP30.

The ASLCG has proposed a climate-first foreign policy grounded in an emergency response, with a “commitment to deep cooperation with nations that prioritise climate disruption risks, with climate-focused agreements on tax, trade, technology, finance, equity and the like” and “diplomatic leadership in high-ambition alliances, such as agreements to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and international financing, to phase out the fossil fuel economy, and for economic climate mobilisation."

Global heating is accelerating, with the past three years averaging above 1.5°C, driven by a reduction in sulfate aerosol emissions due to clean-air policies, and a related cloud feedback. The Earth’s climate could be more sensitive to greenhouse gases than the central estimates, and warming is currently tracking the highest-emissions scenario. This would bring 2°C well before 2050 and 3°C around 2070. On this path, 4°C by 2100 is feasible.

Many extreme events and their impacts have been underestimated in climate models. Risks include climate-driven inflation and big economic shocks, and mass displacement and death.

We are in the danger zone where multiple climate tipping points are being triggered, some of which accelerate warming and worsen impacts. Thus there is a point of no return, after which it may be impossible to stabilise the climate close to conditions in which human society can be maintained. This risk is now, and requires immediate action to avoid it.

The nature and the proximity of catastrophic impacts, tipping points and abrupt and cascading changes constitute the climate emergency. This requires governments to make actions to prevent climate breakdown the first priority of economics and politics.

There is a new opportunity for middle powers to step up, and for governments to lead, in the face of climate threats of a scale that now makes civilisational collapse a realistic scenario.

When societies face existential threats, they can act fast – as we see in wartime mobilisation, disaster recovery, pandemics and economic reconstruction. In democratic nations, these responses often harness public institutions, cross-party mandates, and mass civic participation not only to speed action, but to preserve legitimacy and fairness under pressure.

In these moments, governments have suspended normal timelines, restructured economies, and coordinated resources at massive scale to achieve national objectives.

Emergency mobilisation is not about panic but about priority and activating all available capacities toward a common goal, removing bottlenecks and bypassing market failure. Emergency mode is a shift in governance, mindset, and tempo. It replaces fragmented reform with coordinated transformation.

The tools exist. The capacity exists.

What has been missing is the decision to act.

_Climate emergency briefing: Impacts, risks and key actions for Australia in the age of authoritarianism_ is published today by the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration.