One Nation’s promise to deport 75,000 undocumented migrants echoes Donald Trump’s approach, but the logistics, costs and risks of such a policy are far greater than the rhetoric suggests.

One Nation’s first listed immigration policy is to deport 75,000 undocumented migrants. While no further details are provided, One Nation promises to adopt Donald Trump’s “action and style”. What would that look like in an Australian context?

The Trump Administration has secured around $US170Billion for immigration enforcement the bulk of which is to implement its mass deportation agenda (it is likely to need much more than this if it is to get anywhere Trump’s deportation targets).

A One Nation Government would also need to secure funding well into the Billions to fund the four main steps of a mass deportation plan:

• location of undocumented migrants (often known as overstayers);
• detention while outstanding identity and legal issues are resolved;
• court processes; and
• negotiations with home country governments on each returnee.

The Trump administration has to date allocated $US29.9Billion toward the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency’s enforcement and deportation operations (not including detention). It has recruited an additional 22,000 agents and many more will be needed. They have received some training but clearly not sufficient to prevent serious mistakes, including the shooting of American citizens, as well as the erroneous arrest and detention of American citizens.

While not part of the military, ICE agents are dressed and armed as if they are. They use masks to avoid identification. Under Peter Dutton and Mike Pezzullo, Australian Border Force (ABF) officers were also dressed in military style uniforms (not masks) and given small arms. Would One Nation take this further to increase the military look and capability of immigration compliance staff?

A One Nation government would need to recruit and train a very large number of people (possibly thousands). If this was to be done properly, this would take a lot of time. This was time the Trump administration did not take.

As we have seen on our televisions, ICE undertakes raids on businesses, factories, construction sites, schools, hospitals, farms, etc, sometimes without a proper warrant, to try and locate undocumented migrants. Racial profiling is often used. As most people in the US don’t carry citizenship certificates or passports, they may only have a driver’s licence to identify themselves.

As a result, mistakes are common with US citizens often arrested and taken into detention in error. There have been people who have been deported in error with the administration being forced by the courts to bring those people back. The administration will be sued for these errors.

Would One Nation take a similarly cavalier approach?

In Australia, around 100-150 overstayers are in detention at any time awaiting further legal processes with the aim of eventual removal. Many more immigration detainees are s501 character cancellations who are usually taken into detention at the end of their prison sentence (ie location and identification is straightforward). Around 20 refused asylum seeker overstayers appear to be removed each month (some voluntarily others involuntarily). There will be a small number of others who are non-asylum seeker overstayers removed from detention each month. A much larger number of overstayers depart of their own volition or are supervised in their departure and not held in detention.

Assuming One Nation wants to deliver its proposed 75,000 overstayers removal target during its first term in government, that comes to an average of 25,000 removed per annum. If One Nation is to hit this target, it would need a massive increase in detention infrastructure, including guarding, food, medical, and possibly up to 10,000 beds given how long it often takes to deal with outstanding legal issues and negotiate with home country governments.

The Trump administration has to date allocated $US45Billion to build new immigration detention capacity. It is likely more will be needed if its mass deportation target is to be met ( highly unlikely according to the Congressional Budget Office).

As in the US, we are likely to see a substantial number of deaths in these detention centres as medical care is rarely up to scratch.

In 2025, ICE is reported to have made 328,000 arrests, up from around 277,000 in fiscal year 2024 (note not all arrests result in a deportation – most would be in detention). A very large portion will eventually be considered by the courts. While the administration has appointed 36 new Immigration Judges (some may be a net addition to the existing 800 immigration judges), that will not be nearly enough to deal with the rapidly growing volume of cases. These will move very slowly with the immigration legal system eventually becoming paralysed.

One Nation has proposed to speed up legal issues by withdrawing from the UN Refugee Convention. The Trump administration has not gone quite that far, although it has significantly undermined the US asylum system. No other signatory to the UN Refugee Convention has withdrawn from it. Australia would be taking an unprecedented step by withdrawing.

As the requirements of the Convention have been embed into domestic law, those would also have to be amended. It is unlikely that could be done retrospectively so the approximately 120,000 asylum seekers currently in Australia could not easily have their rights removed.

But it would mean Australia would be prepared to send some people back to places where they will face persecution and possibly death. That may not bother One Nation but may be of concern to other Australians.

Even if a One Nation Government could find ways to accelerate legal processes, it would still need to negotiate the circumstances of each potential removal with their home government. As these governments rarely give priority to resolving such cases, the length of time in detention would blow out (along with the cost).

While there is great merit in a well-resourced and lawfully operating immigration compliance function, the approach Trump is taking will inevitably result in massive costs to the taxpayer; appalling errors for which the government will be sued; massive disruption to legally operating businesses, and ultimately, only a tiny portion of the deportation target being met.

Is that what One Nation wants to copy?