As New Zealand heads toward a November election, early polls suggest a finely balanced contest. Coalition arithmetic, economic anxiety and voter outflow are shaping a year that promises prolonged political uncertainty.

New Zealand’s long election campaigns begin.

If a week is a long time in politics then this year in New Zealand will seem very long indeed. The General Election will be held on November 7.

The first opinion polls of the year show Labour ahead but the centre right governing National Party coalition could form a government with a majority of one seat.

Under New Zealand’s Mixed Member Proportional voting system a major party needs at least one minor party in coalition to form a government.

The Government coalition support parties show mixed results. The populist anti-immigration New Zealand First party rose sharply but the radical right/neo-liberal ACT Party slipped.

Polls show the Opposition Labour Party’s potential support parties are not doing consistently well.

The Māori Party (Te Pāti Māori) is riven by internal disputes.

In recent months two Māori Party MPs lost their seats when they were expelled by the party’s National Council after months of internal conflict, accusations of “serious breaches” of the party constitution, and escalating factional disputes.

Labour party leader Chris Hipkins said he will attempt to win the seven Māori seats for Labour.

The Green Party, ably co-led by Clöe Swarbrick and Marama Davidson, could be a viable coalition partner for Labour. In the days before Waitangi Day (the treaty signing anniversary on February 6) the leadership of Labour and the Green Party held a joint news conference to demonstrate their intention to cooperate sensibly in any future government.

Part of the problem for the Greens has been that the National-led government has waged a vigorous campaign to denigrate Labour and Green Party policies on climate change. National accepts the target of zero carbon by 2050 but has taken few steps to implement it. On becoming the government one of their first acts was to cancel the pervious Labour Government’s ban on offshore drilling.

The New Zealand First Deputy Leader Shane Jones wears a cap carrying the slogan “drill baby drill”.  He is the Minister for Resources and Associate Minister for Finance. The New Zealand delegation to COP30 in Brazil last November planned to sign a “road map” away from fossil fuels but documents show Jones killed the idea.

A minor party with no seats but with ambitions to become a significant centrist influence is The Opportunity Party (TOP). The party was founded by economist and philanthropist Gareth Morgan, who resigned as party leader after winning no seats in the 2017 Election, and the party has failed to win seats ever since. In 2025 TOP was rebranded with new policies and principles under a new leader, businesswoman Qiulae Wong.

A recent poll shows 2.3 per cent of voters support TOP. The party would need to improve massively to be able to participate in any future parliament.

This election year began with a State of the Nation speech by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.

He claimed inflation and interest rates were down and an economic recovery which was interrupted by external events like tariffs in 2025 had begun.

He promised this year to boost employment but also said there would be further budget cuts in order to continue offering the apparently conflicting outcomes of tax cuts and higher spending on defence.

The government plans to launch three major reforms this year.

The age pension is currently paid for by current income backed by a sovereign wealth fund that will support long term pension commitments. The fund currently stands at NZ$70 billion (A$60 billion). The Government wants to introduce private investment companies into the system, similar to the way private companies provide superannuation funds in Australia.

The Government has announced the National Certificate of Educational Achievement (NCEA) which has been in place for 20 years will be abolished and replaced by a system using more examinations, less assessment and a focus on literacy and numeracy, so English and maths will be compulsory. The new system will be more structured than NCEA with fewer optional pathways. It will be phased in over about four years.

The third major policy is aimed at reform of the Resource Management Act to remove much of the paperwork and approval process controlling almost all activities that affect land, air, water and the coastal environment in New Zealand. This has the approval of developers and miners who are frustrated by having to consider environment, noise, neighbours and nature before starting work.

The Prime Minister’s State of the Nation speech made no mention of climate change issues, yet within days there was an extreme weather event during which nine people were killed by floods and landslides.

Labour’s leader Chris Hipkins pointed out the Government abolished a NZ$6 billion resilience fund established by Labour to help deal with extreme weather events.

These and other cuts to government spending and services, recession during the last two years, uninspiring leadership and a perceived atmosphere of austerity have combined to produce a large population outflow.

Over 72,000 people left the country in the year to September 2025, and a total of about 150,000 in two years, equivalent to more than twice the population of a provincial city.

The population exodus could have an influence on the election outcome. Most of the Kiwis who have left the country are younger, educated and tend to be liberal. There are about one million New Zealanders abroad, and if only ten per cent vote, then that hundred thousand could be enough to influence the result.

As election year begins Labour is ahead in most polls but the party has yet to show it can assemble a credible and competent alternative government.

Hipkins and his Labour Party team face significant headwinds including the weakness of the possible coalition partner Te Pati Māori, the strength of National’s coalition partners and the credit the government may get for an economy showing signs of improvement. The Labour policy program has yet to be announced.

As the long year begins the 2026 political landscape in New Zealand is shaping up to be both competitive and unpredictable with polls showing neither main party in a dominant position.