The Coalition is trying to turn migration into a political flashpoint. But the long-term net overseas migration target under Labor is identical to the one projected under the Morrison government.

Angus Taylor is trying to make migration a major political issue, but amazingly a little reported fact is that the Albanese government’s future migration target is exactly the same as the Morrison government’s target.

The Coalition – spurred on by One Nation – seem determined to make migration a major political issue. It is easy to blame migrants for our problems, but realistically why should the Coalition’s future migration policy differ significantly from the past Liberal and Labor policies?

A big part of the Coalition’s attack on the government is their allegation that Australia has been letting in far too many migrants.

The reality is, however, that migration fell dramatically, and was even negative, while borders were closed during the height of the Covid pandemic. The counterpart is that it was always to be expected that migration would surge once the borders were reopened again.

But migration is now returning to normal. In the current financial year (2025-26) the official forecast is that net overseas migration will be 260,000. Next year the forecast is that net migration will be even lower at 225,000, before settling at a long-term rate of 235,000 for the following years.

What is especially interesting is that this target of 235,000 under the present government’s policy is exactly the same long-term rate of net overseas migration as under the Morrison government’s migration policies according to the projections in Treasury’s 2021 Intergenerational Report.

In other words, the Albanese government’s migration policies in terms of the number of migrants is no different from what the Coalition has previously endorsed. So why does the Coalition now want to rely less on migration than previously?

Certainly, the economic reasons for embracing migration have not changed. Australia’s ageing population is making demands on the budget and the economy, and our reliance on migrants is the easiest way of reducing these pressures.

In addition, as the Coalition used to understand, migrants are very important in easing potential skill shortages. There are many industries in Australia, like health, hospitality, agriculture, construction and computing, that are especially dependent on migrant labour. With fewer migrants these vital industries could well falter.

Angus Taylor has made it clear that he wants to shut the gate to any migrants who do not share our values. But he is yet to define our values that must be shared.

For a start, just over half the Australian population were migrants or are the children of migrants, and to date that has never seemed to create a problem of values. Indeed, at more than half, these migrant families must have played an important role in developing our social values and communities.

At present, anybody applying for a visa to stay in Australia must fill in a Statement of Character. That statement essentially seeks to stop people who have committed a crime or who would represent a threat to national security. But Taylor seems to be implying that he would go further in stopping people with unacceptable values, without yet saying what these unacceptable values might be.

Some commentators have suggested that the defining Australian value is “a fair go”, but then there are different interpretations of what exactly is “a fair go”. In any event why would migrants be more likely to oppose “a fair go”, especially as they would be more likely to benefit from it.

The shadow home affairs minister, Senator Jonno Duniam, says that Australian values include respect for the rule of law, freedom of speech and religion, and support for democratic principles and individual liberty.

Again, however, there are no obvious reasons why potential migrants should be expected to fail this test. A few migrants might, but that would be equally true of the rest of us Australians whose families have been here for generations.

Taylor seems determined to manufacture a problem that we don’t really have. Migrants are no more likely to push up the cost of living or imperil social cohesion today than in the past, and Taylor’s likely solution to these problems is flawed. If he gives way to right-wing populism Taylor will be denying the traditions of the Liberal Party as established by Menzies.