Three years after dire warnings that Australia must prepare for war with China, no such conflict has eventuated. Instead, the United States has continued its long pattern of military interventions.

The Red Alert “ panel of national security experts” in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age screamed on 7 March, 2023 that we had to be ready for war with China in three years’ time.

Advised by this expert panel two senior journalists told us with bated breath that we were not prepared for full-scale conflict with China. The journalists were Peter Hartcher, political editor and international editor of SMH and The Age and Matthew Knott, the foreign affairs editor and security correspondent for these papers. Experts indeed!

Paul Keating was not impressed and neither should we be. He accused two of the country’s biggest newspapers of “the most egregious and provocative news presentation” in five decades, after they published front-page stories warning the country faced war with China within three years.

Just consider what these “experts” said three years ago. One was described as a “sage” and another a ”guru”

The experts. Here they are:

“I have to say, the critical threats stem from one source – China,” says Lavina Lee, a foreign policy “guru” from Macquarie University, speaking during the one-and-a-half-day group discussion held in the Nine boardroom in Sydney. “I think China presents the most comprehensive challenge to the regional order that we have faced for the last 70 years after World War II.” … “Neither the Australian military nor the public are presently truly prepared for the outbreak of war and Australia’s inevitable participation. This means there is an absence of urgency about what needs to be done now.” Lavina Lee says the economic coercion Beijing has inflicted over recent years has given Australians a taste of what life would be like under a China-dominated regional order – and it’s not a taste they enjoyed”.“So we must do everything we can to deter that from happening .”

Lavina Lee Expertise Geopolitics guru Senior lecturer in the Department of Security Studies and Criminology at Macquarie University and expert on Indian and US foreign policy, nuclear proliferation, the Quad, and maritime security and strategy in the Indo-Pacific region

Peter Jennings, a “Defence policy expert" said: “It really is all about China, China, China. There’s no question about that.” “We are now dealing with a weak China,” Jennings said, “and my view is that a weak China is much more dangerous from a national security perspective than a strong China. A weak China thinks, ‘I might have one shot at this’.” Jennings points out Western nations are now “largely ammunition free” because of the extensive military aid they have given to Ukraine. “This is what drives the idea of a Chinese approach of ‘let’s do it now’,” he says. “Because it’ll be worse in five years’ time.” Jennings says: “We always had a choice not to be involved in wars in the Middle East, but we don’t have an exit strategy from the Indo-Pacific because this is where we live.”

Peter Jennings Expertise Defence policy expert Former deputy secretary for strategy in the Defence Department and former executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute

Alan Finkel, Australia’s former chief scientist, says Australia should not overlook the dangers posed by other autocratic nations such as a nuclear-armed North Korea. But, he says, “at the 99 per cent level, I agree, it’s all about China”. China has also become the world leader in advanced defence technologies such as hypersonic weapons and drones, putting it in a strong position to fight a war. “Don’t underestimate the technological capacity of China,” warns Finkel.

Alan Finkel Former chief scientist of Australia and president of the Australian Academy of Technology and Engineering

Lesley Seebeck, a “Cyber Sage” says: “We’ve just seen [what happens] in Ukraine where authoritarian leaders want to establish their legacy. This is the tipping point that we’re looking at. And this is what really concerns me about the urgency over the next three to five years.” Seebeck agrees Australia should “definitely be more worried” about a weakening China. “There’s a closing window of opportunity,” she says. “They will be taking lessons from Ukraine. They’ll be watching what’s happening there and saying, ‘We can improve on that’.”

Lesley Seebeck Expertise Cyber sage Former chief executive of the Australian National University’s Cyber Institute, former chief information officer at the Bureau of Meteorology and has worked in departments of Finance, Defence, the Prime Minister and Cabinet, and the ONA.

Mick Ryan, a “Military strategist” applies the classic test of threat by assessing Beijing’s capability and intent. “They are very clear about their intentions for their region, in particular with Taiwan,” he says. “They’ve engaged in the greatest peacetime military build-up in recorded history. And they’ve also done things in places like Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and with the diplomatic and economic coercion that can only lead you to a conclusion that this campaign of aggression and coercion will only continue towards its logical conclusion, which is the reincorporation of Taiwan.” Mick Ryan says there is no doubt about which way Australia would go. “I have always found the idea of our China choice a strange one,” he says. “We have made our choice. If the United States goes to war with Taiwan, we are going to support them one way or the other.”

Mick Ryan Expertise Military strategist Former commander of the Australian Defence College, retired Australian Army major general and adjunct fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies

China and American wars in last 3 years

China nil…last war was with Vietnam in 1979.

America In the last three years, the US has engaged in direct military actions in:

• Iran: Twelve-day war in 2025, followed by strikes on 28 February 2026.
• Venezuela: On 3 January 2026, bombed Venezuela and captured Maduro.
• Yemen: Major campaigns against Houthi supporters of Palestinians.
• Counterterrorism:  “War on Terror” in Somalia, Syria and Lebanon

Also, indirect involvement and support by the US

• Ukraine War: Provided approximately half of all military aid to Ukraine
• Gaza War: Military and diplomatic support to Israel since October 2023.

Have our experts including the editors ever thought of an apology for their Red Alert  beat ups?

Apart from brief isolationist periods, the US has been almost perpetually at war. And not just over the last three years. The US has never had a decade without war. Since its founding in 1776, the US has been at war 93 per cent of the time. These wars have extended from its own hemisphere to the Pacific, to Europe and most recently to the Middle East. The US has launched 201 out of 248 armed conflicts since the end of World War II. Most of these wars like Iraq have been unsuccessful. A repeat may be in prospect in Iran.

Trump’s illegal and unprovoked attack on Iran is in defiance of the UN Charter.

What would our “expert panel” say if China made such an attack on Taiwan?

Hopefully President Xi will continue to delay the PLA armada that the RED Alert experts said would be here by today (March 7,2026). Perhaps he postponed it because of bad weather?